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Learning, Ambiguity and Life-Cycle Portfolio Allocation

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  • Claudio Campanale

    (University of Alicante)

Abstract

In the present paper I develop a life-cycle portfolio choice model where agents perceive stock returns to be ambiguous and are ambiguity averse. As in Epstein and Schneider (2005) part of the ambiguity vanishes over time as a consequence of learning over observed returns. The model shows that ambiguity alone can rationalize moderate stock market participation rates and conditional shares with reasonable participation costs but has strongly counterfactual implications for conditional allocations to stocks by age and wealth. When learning is allowed, conditional shares over the life-cycle are instead aligned with the empirical evidence and patterns of stock holdings over the wealth distribution get closer to the data. (Copyright: Elsevier)

Suggested Citation

  • Claudio Campanale, 2011. "Learning, Ambiguity and Life-Cycle Portfolio Allocation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(2), pages 339-367, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:issued:09-54
    DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2009.09.002
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Guidolin, Massimo & Liu, Hening, 2016. "Ambiguity Aversion and Underdiversification," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 51(04), pages 1297-1323, August.
    2. Illeditsch, PK & Ganguli, J & Condie, S, 2017. "Information Inertia (Working Paper)," Economics Discussion Papers 15615, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
    3. Enrico G. De Giorgi & Ola Mahmoud, 2016. "Diversification preferences in the theory of choice," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 39(2), pages 143-174, November.
    4. repec:esx:essedp:719 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Hui Chen & Nengjiu Ju & Jianjun Miao, 2014. "Dynamic Asset Allocation with Ambiguous Return Predictability," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 17(4), pages 799-823, October.
    6. repec:esx:essedp:770 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Cherbonnier, Frédéric & Gollier, Christian, 2015. "Decreasing aversion under ambiguity," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 606-623.
    8. Hening Liu, 2011. "Dynamic portfolio choice under ambiguity and regime switching mean returns," Post-Print hal-00781344, HAL.
    9. Massimo Guidolin & Francesca Rinaldi, 2013. "Ambiguity in asset pricing and portfolio choice: a review of the literature," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 74(2), pages 183-217, February.
    10. Kim Peijnenburg, 2014. "Life-Cycle Asset Allocation with Ambiguity Aversion and Learning," 2014 Meeting Papers 967, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Kartik B. Athreya & Xuan S. Tam & Eric R. Young, 2009. "Are harsh penalties for default really better?," Working Paper 09-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    12. Kartik B. Athreya & Xuan S. Tam & Eric R. Young, 2012. "Debt default and the insurance of labor income risks," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue 4Q, pages 255-307.
    13. Joseph S. Briggs & David Cesarini & Erik Lindqvist & Robert Östling, 2015. "Windfall Gains and Stock Market Participation," NBER Working Papers 21673, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Eduardo Corso, 2015. "Ambiguity and portfolio decisions," BCRA Working Paper Series 201567, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department.
    15. Ganguli, J & Condie, S & Illeditsch, PK, 2012. "Information Inertia," Economics Discussion Papers 5628, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
    16. Martin Schneider, 2010. "The Research Agenda: Martin Schneider on Multiple Priors Preferences and Financial Markets," EconomicDynamics Newsletter, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(2), April.
    17. Yongsung Chang & Jay H. Hong & Marios Karabarbounis, 2014. "Labor-Market Uncertainty and Portfolio Choice Puzzles," RCER Working Papers 582, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
    18. Enrica Carbone & Konstantinos Georgalos & Gerardo Infante, 2016. "Individual vs. Group Decision Making: an Experiment on Dynamic Choice under Risk and Ambiguity," Working Papers 138739716, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Portfolio choice; Life-cycle; Ambiguity; Learning;

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions

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