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Ambiguity, Risk and Portfolio Choice under Incomplete Information

  • Jianjun Miao

    ()

    (Department of Economics, Boston University)

This paper studies optimal consumption and portfolio choice in a Mertonstyle model with incomplete information when there is a distinction between ambiguity and risk. The latter distinction is afforded by adoption of recursive multiple-priors utility. The fundamental issues are: (i) How does the agent optimally estimate the unobservable processes as new information arrives over time? (ii) What are the effects of ambiguity and incomplete information on behavior? This paper shows that it is optimal to first use any prior to perform Bayesian estimation and then to maximize expected utility with that prior based on the resulting estimates. Finally, the paper shows that a hedging demand arises that is affected by both ambiguity and estimation risk.

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Paper provided by Boston University - Department of Economics in its series Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series with number wp2009-019.

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Length: 23
Date of creation:
Date of revision:
Publication status: published, ANNALS OF ECONOMICS AND FINANCE 10-2, 257–279 (2009)
Handle: RePEc:bos:wpaper:wp2009-019
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  1. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J. & Turmuhambetova, Gauhar & Williams, Noah, 2006. "Robust control and model misspecification," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 128(1), pages 45-90, May.
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  7. Lakner, Peter, 1998. "Optimal trading strategy for an investor: the case of partial information," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 77-97, August.
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  17. Duffie, Darrell & Skiadas, Costis, 1994. "Continuous-time security pricing : A utility gradient approach," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 107-131, March.
  18. Zengjing Chen & Larry G. Epstein, 2000. "Ambiguity, risk and asset returns in continuous time," RCER Working Papers 474, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  19. Gennotte, Gerard, 1986. " Optimal Portfolio Choice under Incomplete Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 733-46, July.
  20. Evan W. Anderson & Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 2003. "A Quartet of Semigroups for Model Specification, Robustness, Prices of Risk, and Model Detection," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(1), pages 68-123, 03.
  21. Ioannis Karatzas & Xlng-Xlong Xue, 1991. "A Note On Utility Maximization Under Partial Observations," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(2), pages 57-70.
  22. Xia, Yihong, 2000. "Learning About Predictability: The Effects of Parameter Uncertainty on Dynamic Asset Allocation," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt3167f8mz, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
  23. Lakner, Peter, 1995. "Utility maximization with partial information," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 247-273, April.
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