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Learning and Equilibrium Selection in a Monetary Overlapping Generations Model with Sticky Prices

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  • Adam, Klaus

Abstract

We study adaptive learning in a monetary overlapping generations model with sticky prices and monopolistic competition for the case where learning agents observe current endogenous variables. Observability of current variables is essential for informational consistency of the learning setup with the model set up but generates multiple temporary equilibria when prices are flexible and prevents a straightforward construction of the learning dynamics. Sticky prices overcome this problem by avoiding simultaneity between prices and price expectations. Adaptive learning then robustly selects the determinate (monetary) steady state independent from the degree of imperfect competition. The indeterminate (non-monetary) steady state and non-stationary equilibria are never stable. Stability in a deterministic version of the model may differ because perfect foresight equilibria can be the limit of restricted perceptions equilibria of the stochastic economy with vanishing noise and thereby inherit different stability properties. This discontinuity at the zero variance of shocks suggests to analyze learning in stochastic models.

Suggested Citation

  • Adam, Klaus, 2003. "Learning and Equilibrium Selection in a Monetary Overlapping Generations Model with Sticky Prices," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/03, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cfswop:200303
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Marcet, Albert & Sargent, Thomas J., 1989. "Convergence of least squares learning mechanisms in self-referential linear stochastic models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 337-368, August.
    2. Klaus Adam, 2002. "Adaptive Learning and Cyclical Behavior of Output and Inflation," Macroeconomics 0211013, EconWPA.
    3. Marimon, Ramon & Sunder, Shyam, 1993. "Indeterminacy of Equilibria in a Hyperinflationary World: Experimental Evidence," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(5), pages 1073-1107, September.
    4. Lettau, M. & Van Zandt, T., 1995. "Robustness of Adaptive Expections as an Equilibrium Selection Device," Papers 9598, Tilburg - Center for Economic Research.
    5. Duffy John, 1994. "On Learning and the Nonuniqueness of Equilibrium in an Overlapping Generations Model with Fiat Money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 541-553, December.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Klaus Adam, 2007. "Experimental Evidence on the Persistence of Output and Inflation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(520), pages 603-636, April.
    2. Klaus Adam & Albert Marcet & Juan Pablo Nicolini, 2016. "Stock Market Volatility and Learning," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(1), pages 33-82, February.
    3. Adam, Klaus & Marcet, Albert, 2011. "Internal rationality, imperfect market knowledge and asset prices," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 1224-1252, May.
    4. Pei Kuang, 2014. "Learning Dynamics with Data (Quasi-) Differencing," Discussion Papers 15-06, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    5. Klaus Adam & George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapoja, 2003. "Are Stationary Hyperinflation Paths Learnable?," CESifo Working Paper Series 936, CESifo Group Munich.
    6. Norbert Christopeit & Michael Massmann, 2013. "Estimating Structural Parameters in Regression Models with Adaptive Learning," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-111/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    7. Seonghoon Cho & Antonio Moreno, 2008. "Expectational Stability in Multivariate Models," Faculty Working Papers 06/08, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    8. Allen, Franklin & Barlevy, Gadi & Gale, Douglas, 2017. "On Interest Rate Policy and Asset Bubbles," Working Paper Series WP-2017-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    9. Ellison, Martin & Pearlman, Joseph, 2011. "Saddlepath learning," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(4), pages 1500-1519, July.
    10. Adam, Klaus & Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2006. "Are hyperinflation paths learnable?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 2725-2748, December.
    11. Jordi Gal?, 2014. "Monetary Policy and Rational Asset Price Bubbles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(3), pages 721-752, March.
    12. McCallum, Bennett T., 2007. "E-stability vis-a-vis determinacy results for a broad class of linear rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1376-1391, April.
    13. Mele, Antonio & Molnar, Krisztina & Santoro, Sergio, 2014. "On the perils of stabilizing prices when agents are learning," Discussion Paper Series in Economics 1/2015, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Economics.
    14. Hommes, C.H. & Zhu, M., 2016. "Behavioral Learning Equilibria, Persistence Amplification & Monetary Policy," CeNDEF Working Papers 16-03, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    15. Hommes, C.H. & Massaro, D. & Salle, I., 2015. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy Design at the Zero Lower Bound - Evidence from the Lab," CeNDEF Working Papers 15-11, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    16. Gadi Barlevy & Douglas Gale & Franklin Allen, 2017. "On Interest Rate Policy and Asset Bubbles," 2017 Meeting Papers 489, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    adaptive learning; sticky prices; temporary equilibrium;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium

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