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Bubbles and cycles in the Solow–Swan model

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  • Gerhard Sorger

    () (University of Vienna)

Abstract

Abstract We consider a neoclassical one-sector economy in which—in addition to physical capital—there exists a second asset. This asset is unproductive, cannot be consumed, and does not pay dividends. A no-arbitrage condition is imposed so that the two assets are equivalent stores of value. Finally, we assume that consumption (respectively, investment) is a fixed fraction of the sum of aggregate factor income (GDP) and capital gains. In this modified Solow–Swan model, we characterize the conditions under which bubbles can exist, i.e., under which the useless asset can have a positive price. We find that these conditions do not imply that the original Solow–Swan equilibrium is dynamically inefficient, and we demonstrate that asset price bubbles can lead to non-monotonic and even periodic capital accumulation paths.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerhard Sorger, 2019. "Bubbles and cycles in the Solow–Swan model," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 127(3), pages 193-221, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:jeczfn:v:127:y:2019:i:3:d:10.1007_s00712-018-0638-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s00712-018-0638-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cass, David, 1972. "On capital overaccumulation in the aggregative, neoclassical model of economic growth: A complete characterization," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 200-223, April.
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    3. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    4. Kocherlakota, Narayana R., 1992. "Bubbles and constraints on debt accumulation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 245-256.
    5. Alberto Martin & Jaume Ventura, 2016. "Managing Credit Bubbles," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 753-789, June.
    6. Paul A. Samuelson, 1958. "An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 467-467.
    7. Miao, Jianjun, 2014. "Introduction to economic theory of bubbles," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 130-136.
    8. T. W. Swan, 1956. "ECONOMIC GROWTH and CAPITAL ACCUMULATION," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 32(2), pages 334-361, November.
    9. Menahem E. Yaari, 1965. "Uncertain Lifetime, Life Insurance, and the Theory of the Consumer," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 32(2), pages 137-150.
    10. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985. "Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-247, April.
    11. Tirole, Jean, 1985. "Asset Bubbles and Overlapping Generations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1499-1528, November.
    12. Philippe Weil, 1987. "Confidence and the Real Value of Money in an Overlapping Generations Economy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 102(1), pages 1-22.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Solow–Swan model; Asset price bubbles; Dynamic inefficiency; Non-monotonic dynamics;

    JEL classification:

    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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