IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2211.13100.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Leverage, Endogenous Unbalanced Growth, and Asset Price Bubbles

Author

Listed:
  • Tomohiro Hirano
  • Ryo Jinnai
  • Alexis Akira Toda

Abstract

We present a general equilibrium macro-finance model with a positive feedback loop between capital investment and land price. As leverage is relaxed beyond a critical value, through the financial accelerator, a phase transition occurs from balanced growth where land prices reflect fundamentals (present value of rents) to unbalanced growth where land prices grow faster than rents, generating land price bubbles. Unbalanced growth dynamics and bubbles are associated with financial loosening and technological progress. In an analytically tractable two-sector large open economy model with unique equilibria, financial loosening simultaneously leads to low interest rates, asset overvaluation, and top-end wealth concentration.

Suggested Citation

  • Tomohiro Hirano & Ryo Jinnai & Alexis Akira Toda, 2022. "Leverage, Endogenous Unbalanced Growth, and Asset Price Bubbles," Papers 2211.13100, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2024.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2211.13100
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2211.13100
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393, Elsevier.
    2. Kocherlakota, Narayana, 2008. "Injecting rational bubbles," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 218-232, September.
    3. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Yuliy Sannikov, 2014. "A Macroeconomic Model with a Financial Sector," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(2), pages 379-421, February.
    4. Jianjun Miao & Pengfei Wang, 2018. "Asset Bubbles and Credit Constraints," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(9), pages 2590-2628, September.
    5. Bruce C. Greenwald & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1993. "Financial Market Imperfections and Business Cycles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(1), pages 77-114.
    6. Zhiguo He & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2013. "Intermediary Asset Pricing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(2), pages 732-770, April.
    7. Ana Fostel & John Geanakoplos, 2012. "Tranching, CDS, and Asset Prices: How Financial Innovation Can Cause Bubbles and Crashes," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 190-225, January.
    8. Alberto Martin & Jaume Ventura, 2018. "The Macroeconomics of Rational Bubbles: A User's Guide," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 10(1), pages 505-539, August.
    9. Tomohiro Hirano & Noriyuki Yanagawa, 2017. "Asset Bubbles, Endogenous Growth, and Financial Frictions," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 84(1), pages 406-443.
    10. Manuel S. Santos & Michael Woodford, 1997. "Rational Asset Pricing Bubbles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(1), pages 19-58, January.
    11. Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2015. "New Theoretical Perspectives on the Distribution of Income and Wealth among Individuals: Part I. The Wealth Residual," NBER Working Papers 21189, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2015. "New Theoretical Perspectives on the Distribution of Income and Wealth among Individuals: Part IV: Land and Credit," NBER Working Papers 21192, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Pablo A. Guerron-Quintana & Tomohiro Hirano & Ryo Jinnai, 2023. "Bubbles, Crashes, and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 333-371, April.
    14. Andreas Fagereng & Luigi Guiso & Davide Malacrino & Luigi Pistaferri, 2020. "Heterogeneity and Persistence in Returns to Wealth," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(1), pages 115-170, January.
    15. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-1445, November.
    16. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    17. Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2015. "New Theoretical Perspectives on the Distribution of Income and Wealth among Individuals: Part II: Equilibrium Wealth Distributions," NBER Working Papers 21190, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Paul A. Samuelson, 1958. "An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66(6), pages 467-467.
    19. Benjamin Moll, 2014. "Productivity Losses from Financial Frictions: Can Self-Financing Undo Capital Misallocation?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(10), pages 3186-3221, October.
    20. Brunnermeier, Markus K. & Oehmke, Martin, 2013. "Bubbles, Financial Crises, and Systemic Risk," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1221-1288, Elsevier.
    21. repec:hoo:wpaper:e-92-3 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Miao, Jianjun, 2014. "Introduction to economic theory of bubbles," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 130-136.
    23. Dan Cao & Wenlan Luo, 2017. "Persistent Heterogeneous Returns and Top End Wealth Inequality," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 26, pages 301-326, October.
    24. Tirole, Jean, 1985. "Asset Bubbles and Overlapping Generations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1499-1528, November.
    25. Brendan K. Beare & Alexis Akira Toda, 2022. "Determination of Pareto Exponents in Economic Models Driven by Markov Multiplicative Processes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(4), pages 1811-1833, July.
    26. Matsuyama, Kiminori, 1992. "Agricultural productivity, comparative advantage, and economic growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 317-334, December.
    27. John Geanakoplos, 2010. "The Leverage Cycle," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2009, Volume 24, pages 1-65, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. Sun, Yeneng & Zhang, Yongchao, 2009. "Individual risk and Lebesgue extension without aggregate uncertainty," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(1), pages 432-443, January.
    29. Menahem E. Yaari, 1965. "Uncertain Lifetime, Life Insurance, and the Theory of the Consumer," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 32(2), pages 137-150.
    30. Franklin Allen & Gadi Barlevy & Douglas Gale, 2022. "Asset Price Booms and Macroeconomic Policy: A Risk-Shifting Approach," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 243-280, April.
    31. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-436, June.
    32. Lee, Yoonsoo & Mukoyama, Toshihiko, 2015. "Productivity and employment dynamics of US manufacturing plants," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 190-193.
    33. Jones, Larry E & Manuelli, Rodolfo E, 1990. "A Convex Model of Equilibrium Growth: Theory and Policy Implications," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 1008-1038, October.
    34. John Geanakoplos, 2009. "The Leverage Cycle," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1715R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jan 2010.
    35. Scheinkman, Jose A & Weiss, Laurence, 1986. "Borrowing Constraints and Aggregate Economic Activity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(1), pages 23-45, January.
    36. Dennis Epple & Brett Gordon & Holger Sieg, 2010. "A New Approach to Estimating the Production Function for Housing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 905-924, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tomohiro Hirano & Ryo Jinnai & Alexis Akira Toda, 2022. "Leverage, Endogenous Unbalanced Growth, and Asset Price Bubbles," Papers 2211.13100, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2024.
    2. Bosi, Stefano & Le Van, Cuong & Pham, Ngoc-Sang, 2022. "Real indeterminacy and dynamics of asset price bubbles in general equilibrium," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    3. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    4. ÅžimÅŸek, Alp, 2021. "The Macroeconomics of Financial Speculation," CEPR Discussion Papers 15733, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Michau, Jean-Baptiste & Ono, Yoshiyasu & Schlegl, Matthias, 2023. "Wealth preference and rational bubbles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    6. Tomohiro Hirano & Alexis Akira Toda, 2023. "Unbalanced Growth, Elasticity of Substitution, and Land Overvaluation," CIGS Working Paper Series 23-014E, The Canon Institute for Global Studies.
    7. Bosi, Stefano & Le Van, Cuong & Pham, Ngoc-Sang, 2017. "Asset bubbles and efficiency in a generalized two-sector model," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 37-48.
    8. Hirano, Tomohiro & Toda, Alexis Akira, 2024. "Bubble economics," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    9. Bengui, Julien & Phan, Toan, 2018. "Asset pledgeability and endogenously leveraged bubbles," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 280-314.
    10. Pablo A. Guerron-Quintana & Tomohiro Hirano & Ryo Jinnai, 2021. "Bubbles, Crashes, Ups and Downs in Economic Growth Theory and Evidence," CIGS Working Paper Series 21-006E, The Canon Institute for Global Studies.
    11. repec:hal:wpaper:halshs-02993656 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Andrea Ajello & Nina Boyarchenko & François Gourio & Andrea Tambalotti, 2022. "Financial Stability Considerations for Monetary Policy: Theoretical Mechanisms," Staff Reports 1002, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    13. Brunnermeier, Markus K. & Oehmke, Martin, 2013. "Bubbles, Financial Crises, and Systemic Risk," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1221-1288, Elsevier.
    14. Pham, Ngoc-Sang, 2023. "Intertemporal equilibrium with physical capital and financial asset: Role of dividend taxation," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 95-104.
    15. Jordi Galí, 2016. "Monetary policy and bubbles in a new Keynesian model with overlapping generations," Economics Working Papers 1561, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jan 2020.
    16. Tomohiro HIRANO & Ryo Jinnai & Alexis Akira Toda, 2023. "Necessity of Rational Asset Price Bubbles in Two Sector Growth Economies," CIGS Working Paper Series 23-002E, The Canon Institute for Global Studies.
    17. Miao, Jianjun, 2014. "Introduction to economic theory of bubbles," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 130-136.
    18. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Thomas M. Eisenbach & Yuliy Sannikov, 2012. "Macroeconomics with Financial Frictions: A Survey," Levine's Working Paper Archive 786969000000000384, David K. Levine.
    19. Tomohiro HIRANO & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2021. "The Wobbly Economy; Global Dynamics with Phase Transitions and State Transitions," CIGS Working Paper Series 21-008E, The Canon Institute for Global Studies.
    20. Takashi Kamihigashi & Ryonghun Im, 2022. "Two Types of Asset Bubbles in a Small Open Economy," Discussion Paper Series DP2022-15, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
    21. Dong, Feng & Xu, Zhiwei, 2022. "Bubbly bailout," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2211.13100. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.