IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2508.03230.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

To Bubble or Not to Bubble: Asset Price Dynamics and Optimality in OLG Economies

Author

Listed:
  • Stefano Bosi

    (UEVE)

  • Cuong Le Van

    (CES, PSE)

  • Ngoc-Sang Pham

    (EM Normandie)

Abstract

We study an overlapping generations (OLG) exchange economy with an asset that yields dividends. First, we derive general conditions, based on exogenous parameters, that give rise to three distinct scenarios: (1) only bubbleless equilibria exist, (2) a bubbleless equilibrium coexists with a continuum of bubbly equilibria, and (3) all equilibria are bubbly. Under stationary endowments and standard assumptions, we provide a complete characterization of the equilibrium set and the associated asset price dynamics. In this setting, a bubbly equilibrium exists if and only if the interest rate in the economy without the asset is strictly lower than the population growth rate and the sum of per capita dividends is finite. Second, we establish necessary and sufficient conditions for Pareto optimality. Finally, we investigate the relationship between asset price behaviors and the optimality of equilibria.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefano Bosi & Cuong Le Van & Ngoc-Sang Pham, 2025. "To Bubble or Not to Bubble: Asset Price Dynamics and Optimality in OLG Economies," Papers 2508.03230, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2025.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2508.03230
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2508.03230
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Araujo, Aloisio & Páscoa, Mário R. & Torres-Martínez, Juan Pablo, 2011. "Long-lived collateralized assets and bubbles," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 260-271.
    2. Bosi, Stefano & Le Van, Cuong & Pham, Ngoc-Sang, 2017. "Asset bubbles and efficiency in a generalized two-sector model," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 37-48.
    3. Tirole, Jean, 1982. "On the Possibility of Speculation under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1163-1181, September.
    4. Balasko, Yves & Shell, Karl, 1981. "The overlapping-generations model. II. The case of pure exchange with money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 112-142, February.
    5. Stefano Bosi & Cuong Le Van & Ngoc-Sang Pham, 2017. "Rational Land and Housing Bubbles in Infinite-Horizon Economies," Studies in Economic Theory, in: Kazuo Nishimura & Alain Venditti & Nicholas C. Yannelis (ed.), Sunspots and Non-Linear Dynamics, chapter 0, pages 203-230, Springer.
    6. Jianjun Miao & Pengfei Wang, 2018. "Asset Bubbles and Credit Constraints," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(9), pages 2590-2628, September.
    7. Robert Becker & Stefano Bosi & Cuong Van & Thomas Seegmuller, 2015. "On existence and bubbles of Ramsey equilibrium with borrowing constraints," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 58(2), pages 329-353, February.
    8. Cuong Le Van & Ngoc-Sang Pham, 2016. "Intertemporal equilibrium with financial asset and physical capital," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 62(1), pages 155-199, June.
    9. Ngoc-Sang Pham & Alexis Akira Toda, 2025. "Rational Bubbles on Dividend-Paying Assets: A Comment on Tirole (1985)," Papers 2507.12477, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2025.
    10. Araujo, Aloisio & Novinski, Rodrigo & Páscoa, Mário R., 2011. "General equilibrium, wariness and efficient bubbles," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 785-811, May.
    11. Alberto Martin & Jaume Ventura, 2018. "The Macroeconomics of Rational Bubbles: A User's Guide," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 10(1), pages 505-539, August.
    12. Tomohiro Hirano & Alexis Akira Toda, 2025. "Bubble Necessity Theorem," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 133(1), pages 111-145.
    13. Bosi, Stefano & Van, Cuong Le & Pham, Ngoc-Sang, 2018. "Intertemporal equilibrium with heterogeneous agents, endogenous dividends and collateral constraints," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 1-20.
    14. Mário Páscoa & Myrian Petrassi & Juan Torres-Martínez, 2011. "Fiat money and the value of binding portfolio constraints," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 46(2), pages 189-209, February.
    15. repec:hal:pseptp:hal-01302535 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Manuel S. Santos & Michael Woodford, 1997. "Rational Asset Pricing Bubbles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(1), pages 19-58, January.
    17. Kevin X.D. Huang & Jan Werner, 2000. "Asset price bubbles in Arrow-Debreu and sequential equilibrium," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 15(2), pages 253-278.
    18. Bosi, Stefano & Ha-Huy, Thai & Le Van, Cuong & Pham, Cao-Tung & Pham, Ngoc-Sang, 2018. "Financial bubbles and capital accumulation in altruistic economies," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 125-139.
    19. Jean-Marc Bonnisseau & Lalaina Rakotonindrainy, 2017. "Existence of equilibrium in OLG economies with increasing returns," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 63(1), pages 111-129, January.
    20. repec:ejw:journl:v:22:y:2025:i:1:p:1-17 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-1445, November.
    22. Bloise, G. & Citanna, A., 2019. "Asset shortages, liquidity and speculative bubbles," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 952-990.
    23. repec:hal:pseose:hal-01302382 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Weil, Philippe, 1990. "On the Possibility of Price Decreasing Bubbles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(6), pages 1467-1474, November.
    25. repec:hal:cesptp:hal-03594185 is not listed on IDEAS
    26. Kocherlakota, Narayana R., 1992. "Bubbles and constraints on debt accumulation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 245-256.
    27. Ngoc-Sang Pham & Alexis Akira Toda, 2025. "Asset Prices with Overlapping Generations and Capital Accumulation: Tirole (1985) Revisited," Papers 2501.16560, arXiv.org.
    28. Weil, Philippe, 1989. "Overlapping families of infinitely-lived agents," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 183-198, March.
    29. Citanna, Alessandro & Siconolfi, Paolo, 2012. "Recursive equilibrium in stochastic OLG economies: Incomplete markets," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(5), pages 322-337.
    30. repec:hal:journl:hal-01302535 is not listed on IDEAS
    31. Bosi, Stefano & Pham, Ngoc-Sang, 2016. "Taxation, bubbles and endogenous growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 73-76.
    32. Miao, Jianjun, 2014. "Introduction to economic theory of bubbles," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 130-136.
    33. Masahiro Okuno & Itzhak Zilcha, 1980. "On the Efficiency of a Competitive Equilibrium in Infinite Horizon Monetary Economies," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 47(4), pages 797-807.
    34. Wilson, Charles A., 1981. "Equilibrium in dynamic models with an infinity of agents," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 95-111, February.
    35. Tirole, Jean, 1985. "Asset Bubbles and Overlapping Generations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1499-1528, November.
    36. Philippe Weil, 1987. "Confidence and the Real Value of Money in an Overlapping Generations Economy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 102(1), pages 1-22.
    37. Balasko, Yves & Shell, Karl, 1981. "The overlapping-generations model. III. The case of log-linear utility functions," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 143-152, February.
    38. Ngoc-Sang Pham, 2024. "The relationship between general equilibrium models with infinite-lived agents and overlapping generations models, and some applications," Papers 2411.07674, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2025.
    39. repec:hal:pseptp:hal-03594185 is not listed on IDEAS
    40. Tomohiro Hirano & Alexis Akira Toda, 2025. "Land and Infinite Debt Rollover," Papers 2508.16002, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2025.
    41. Werner, Jan, 2014. "Rational asset pricing bubbles and debt constraints," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 145-152.
    42. Bosi, Stefano & Le Van, Cuong & Pham, Ngoc-Sang, 2022. "Real indeterminacy and dynamics of asset price bubbles in general equilibrium," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    43. Nicholas Barberis & Ming Huang & Tano Santos, 2001. "Prospect Theory and Asset Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(1), pages 1-53.
    44. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/8701 is not listed on IDEAS
    45. Changyong Rhee, 1991. "Dynamic Inefficiency in an Economy with Land," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(4), pages 791-797.
    46. Tomohiro Hirano & Alexis Akira Toda, 2024. "Rational Bubbles Attached to Real Assets," Papers 2410.17425, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2025.
    47. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/8701 is not listed on IDEAS
    48. repec:hal:wpaper:halshs-02993656 is not listed on IDEAS
    49. Benveniste, Lawrence M., 1976. "A complete characterization of efficiency for a general capital accumulation model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 325-337, April.
    50. repec:hal:journl:hal-03594185 is not listed on IDEAS
    51. Balasko, Yves & Shell, Karl, 1980. "The overlapping-generations model, I: The case of pure exchange without money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 281-306, December.
    52. Roger E A Farmer, 2019. "The Indeterminacy Agenda in Macroeconomics," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 507, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    53. Luigi Montrucchio, 2004. "Cass transversality condition and sequential asset bubbles," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 24(3), pages 645-663, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stefano Bosi & Cuong Le Van & Ngoc-Sang Pham, 2025. "To Bubble or Not to Bubble: Asset Price Dynamics and Optimality in OLG Economies," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-05199274, HAL.
    2. Bosi, Stefano & Le Van, Cuong & Pham, Ngoc-Sang, 2022. "Real indeterminacy and dynamics of asset price bubbles in general equilibrium," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    3. repec:hal:wpaper:halshs-02993656 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Ngoc-Sang Pham, 2024. "The relationship between general equilibrium models with infinite-lived agents and overlapping generations models, and some applications," Papers 2411.07674, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2025.
    5. Bosi, Stefano & Van, Cuong Le & Pham, Ngoc-Sang, 2018. "Intertemporal equilibrium with heterogeneous agents, endogenous dividends and collateral constraints," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 1-20.
    6. Stefano Bosi & Cuong Le Van & Ngoc-Sang Pham, 2017. "Rational Land and Housing Bubbles in Infinite-Horizon Economies," Studies in Economic Theory, in: Kazuo Nishimura & Alain Venditti & Nicholas C. Yannelis (ed.), Sunspots and Non-Linear Dynamics, chapter 0, pages 203-230, Springer.
    7. Bosi, Stefano & Le Van, Cuong & Pham, Ngoc-Sang, 2017. "Asset bubbles and efficiency in a generalized two-sector model," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 37-48.
    8. Hirano, Tomohiro & Toda, Alexis Akira, 2024. "Bubble economics," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    9. Bosi, Stefano & Ha-Huy, Thai & Le Van, Cuong & Pham, Cao-Tung & Pham, Ngoc-Sang, 2018. "Financial bubbles and capital accumulation in altruistic economies," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 125-139.
    10. Stefano Bosi & Thai Ha‐Huy & Cao‐Tung Pham & Ngoc‐Sang Pham, 2022. "Ascendant altruism and asset price bubbles," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 18(4), pages 532-551, December.
    11. repec:hal:wpaper:halshs-03409931 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Stefano Bosi & Thai Ha-Huy & Cao‐tung Pham & Ngoc‐sang Pham, 2021. "Ascendant altruism and asset price bubbles," Post-Print halshs-03409931, HAL.
    13. Pham, Ngoc-Sang, 2017. "Assets with possibly negative dividends," MPRA Paper 78193, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Stefano Bosi & Cuong Le Van & Ngoc-Sang Pham, 2015. "Intertemporal equilibrium with heterogeneous agents, endogenous dividends, and borrowing constraints," Documents de recherche 15-05, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
    15. Bidian, Florin, 2015. "Portfolio constraints, differences in beliefs and bubbles," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 317-326.
    16. Pham, Ngoc-Sang, 2023. "Intertemporal equilibrium with physical capital and financial asset: Role of dividend taxation," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 95-104.
    17. Tomohiro Hirano & Alexis Akira Toda, 2025. "Bubble Necessity Theorem," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 133(1), pages 111-145.
    18. repec:ejw:journl:v:22:y:2025:i:1:p:1-17 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Takashi Kamihigashi, 2015. "A Simple No-Bubble Theorem for Deterministic Dynamic Economies," Discussion Paper Series DP2015-24, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
    20. Takashi Kamihigashi, 2015. "A Simple No-Bubble Theorem for Deterministic Sequential Economies," Discussion Paper Series DP2015-38, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
    21. Stefano Bosi & Cuong Le Van & Ngoc-Sang Pham, 2014. "Intertemporal equilibrium with production: bubbles and efficiency," Post-Print halshs-01020888, HAL.
    22. Kamihigashi, Takashi, 2018. "A Simple optimality-based no-bubble theorem for deterministic sequential economies with strictly monotone preferences," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 36-41.
    23. Pham, Ngoc-Sang, 2017. "Dividend taxation in an infinite-horizon general equilibrium model," MPRA Paper 80580, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C6 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling
    • D5 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium
    • D61 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Allocative Efficiency; Cost-Benefit Analysis
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2508.03230. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.