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Tracing the History of Asset Price Bubble Theory

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  • Sally Dubach

Abstract

The literature on rational asset price bubbles has grown substantially, yet its internal logic is difficult to trace without reading across a large and technically demanding body of work. This paper provides a guide to the literature on rational asset price bubble theory, tracing its evolution from early overlapping generations models to environments with financial frictions, infinitely lived agents, and dividend-paying assets. Two mechanisms consistently sustain rational bubbles across these frameworks. The first is resale: investors buy above fundamental value, expecting to sell to subsequent buyers. The second is savings pressure that pushes the bubbleless equilibrium interest rate below the economy’s growth rate. Despite substantial theoretical progress, a gap remains between theoretical insights and the frameworks policymakers need.

Suggested Citation

  • Sally Dubach, 2026. "Tracing the History of Asset Price Bubble Theory," Diskussionsschriften dp2604, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
  • Handle: RePEc:ube:dpvwib:dp2604
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peter C. B. Phillips & Shuping Shi & Jun Yu, 2015. "Testing For Multiple Bubbles: Historical Episodes Of Exuberance And Collapse In The S&P 500," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1043-1078, November.
    2. Ricardo Lagos & Randall Wright, 2005. "A Unified Framework for Monetary Theory and Policy Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(3), pages 463-484, June.
    3. Grossman, Gene M. & Yanagawa, Noriyuki, 1993. "Asset bubbles and endogenous growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 3-19, February.
    4. Tomohiro Hirano & Ryo Jinnai & Alexis Akira Toda, 2022. "Leverage, Endogenous Unbalanced Growth, and Asset Price Bubbles," Papers 2211.13100, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2024.
    5. Peter C. B. Phillips & Shuping Shi & Jun Yu, 2015. "Testing For Multiple Bubbles: Historical Episodes Of Exuberance And Collapse In The S&P 500," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56, pages 1043-1078, November.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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