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Bubbles, Crashes, and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence

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  • Pablo A. Guerron-Quintana
  • Tomohiro Hirano
  • Ryo Jinnai

Abstract

We analyze the ups and downs in economic growth in recent decades by constructing a model with recurrent bubbles, crashes, and endogenous growth. Once realized, bubbles crowd in investment and stimulate economic growth, but expectation about future bubbles crowds out investment and reduces economic growth. We identify bubbly episodes by estimating the model using the US data. Counterfactual simulations suggest that the IT and housing bubbles not only caused economic booms but also lifted US GDP by almost 2 percentage points permanently, but the economy could have grown even faster if people had believed that asset bubbles would never arise.

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  • Pablo A. Guerron-Quintana & Tomohiro Hirano & Ryo Jinnai, 2023. "Bubbles, Crashes, and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 333-371, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:15:y:2023:i:2:p:333-71
    DOI: 10.1257/mac.20220015
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    Cited by:

    1. Tomohiro Hirano & Ryo Jinnai & Alexis Akira Toda, 2022. "Leverage, Endogenous Unbalanced Growth, and Asset Price Bubbles," Papers 2211.13100, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2024.
    2. Yu Awaya & Kohei Iwasaki & Makoto Watanabe, 2024. "Money Is the Root of Asset Bubbles," CESifo Working Paper Series 10923, CESifo.
    3. Hirano, Tomohiro & Toda, Alexis Akira, 2024. "Bubble economics," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 122042, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Gomes Orlando, 2024. "Economic Growth in the Age of Ubiquitous Threats: How Global Risks are Reshaping Growth Theory," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 18(1), pages 1-15, January.
    5. Ninik SRIJANI & Siti AISYAH & Lilik Sri HARIANI, 2023. "Presidential Election and SME Transformation in Indonesia: The Influence of Policies and Political Dynamics," CECCAR Business Review, Body of Expert and Licensed Accountants of Romania (CECCAR), vol. 4(10), pages 60-73, October.
    6. Michau, Jean-Baptiste & Ono, Yoshiyasu & Schlegl, Matthias, 2023. "Wealth preference and rational bubbles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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