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A Bayesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of stock market bubbles and business cycles

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  • Jianjun Miao
  • Pengfei Wang
  • Zhiwei Xu

Abstract

We present an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of stock market bubbles and business cycles using Bayesian methods. Bubbles emerge through a positive feedback loop mechanism supported by self‐fulfilling beliefs. We identify a sentiment shock that drives the movements of bubbles and is transmitted to the real economy through endogenous credit constraints. This shock explains most of the stock market fluctuations and sizable fractions of the variations in real quantities. It generates the comovement between stock prices and the real economy, and is the dominant force behind the internet bubbles and the Great Recession.

Suggested Citation

  • Jianjun Miao & Pengfei Wang & Zhiwei Xu, 2015. "A Bayesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of stock market bubbles and business cycles," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 6(3), pages 599-635, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:quante:v:6:y:2015:i:3:p:599-635
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Pablo A. Guerron-Quintana & Tomohiro Hirano & Ryo Jinnai, 2019. "Recurrent Bubbles and Economic Growth," CARF F-Series CARF-F-457, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    2. Winkler, Fabian, 2020. "The role of learning for asset prices and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 42-58.
    3. Chevallier, Claire Océane & El Joueidi, Sarah, 2019. "Capital regulation and banking bubbles," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 117-129.
    4. Jianjun Miao & Pengfei Wang & Tao Zha, 2020. "Discount Shock, Price–Rent Dynamics, And The Business Cycle," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 61(3), pages 1229-1252, August.
    5. Nina Biljanovska & Lucyna Gornicka & Alexandros Vardoulakis, 2019. "Optimal Macroprudential Policy and Asset Price Bubbles," IMF Working Papers 2019/184, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Chunping Liu & Zhirong Ou, 2021. "What determines China's housing price dynamics? New evidence from a DSGE‐VAR," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 3269-3305, July.
    7. Pablo A. Guerron-Quintana & Tomohiro Hirano & Ryo Jinnai, 2021. "Bubbles, Crashes, Ups and Downs in Economic Growth Theory and Evidence," CIGS Working Paper Series 21-006E, The Canon Institute for Global Studies.
    8. Paetz, Michael & Gupta, Rangan, 2016. "Stock price dynamics and the business cycle in an estimated DSGE model for South Africa," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 166-182.
    9. Roger E. A. Farmer, 2018. "Pricing Assets in a Perpetual Youth Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 30, pages 106-124, October.
    10. Jin, Tao & Kwok, Simon & Zheng, Xin, 2022. "Financial wealth, investment, and confidence in a DSGE model for China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 114-134.
    11. He, Yiyao, 2022. "Heterogeneous stock traders, endogenous bubbles, and economic fluctuations," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
    12. Dong, Feng & Xu, Zhiwei, 2022. "Bubbly bailout," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    13. Pintus, Patrick A. & Wen, Yi & Xing, Xiaochuan, 2022. "The inverted leading indicator property and redistribution effect of the interest rate," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    14. Larin, Benjamin, 2016. "A Quantitative Model of Bubble-Driven Business Cycles," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145817, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    15. Jianjun Miao, 2016. "Introduction to the symposium on bubbles, multiple equilibria, and economic activities," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 61(2), pages 207-214, February.
    16. Wang, Shengquan & Chen, Langnan, 2019. "Driving factors of equity bubbles," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 304-317.
    17. Moreira, Afonso M. & Martins, Luis F., 2020. "A new mechanism for anticipating price exuberance," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 199-221.
    18. Xiao-Lin Li & Yi-Na Li & Lu Bai, 2019. "Stock Market Cycle and Business Cycle in China: Evidence from a Bootstrap Rolling Window Approach," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 17, pages 35-50, August.
    19. Benjamin Larin, 2018. "A Quantitative Model of Bubble-Driven Business Cycles," 2018 Meeting Papers 662, Society for Economic Dynamics.

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