Comparing patterns of default among prime and subprime mortgages
This article compares default patterns among prime and subprime mortgages, analyzes the factors correlated with default, and examines how forecasts of defaults are affected by alternative assumptions about trends in home prices. The authors find that extremely pessimistic forecasts of home price appreciation could have generated predictions of subprime defaults that were closer to the actual default experience for loans originated in 2006 and 2007. However, for prime loans one would have also had to anticipate that defaults would become much more sensitive to home prices.
Volume (Year): (2009)
Issue (Month): Q II ()
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- Giovanni Dell’Ariccia & Deniz Igan & Luc Laeven, 2012.
"Credit Booms and Lending Standards: Evidence from the Subprime Mortgage Market,"
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09-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
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- Paul S. Willen & Adam Hale Shapiro & Kristopher Gerardi, 2008.
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- Kristopher S. Gerardi & Adam Hale Shapiro & Paul S. Willen, 2007. "Subprime outcomes: risky mortgages, homeownership experiences, and foreclosures," Working Papers 07-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Foote, Christopher L. & Gerardi, Kristopher & Goette, Lorenz & Willen, Paul S., 2008. "Just the facts: An initial analysis of subprime's role in the housing crisis," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 291-305, December.
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