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Household Debt and Defaults from 2000 to 2010: Facts from Credit Bureau Data

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  • Atif Mian
  • Amir Sufi

Abstract

We use individual level credit bureau data to document which individuals saw the biggest rise in household debt from 2000 to 2007 and the biggest rise in defaults from 2007 to 2010. Growth in household debt from 2000 to 2007 was substantially larger for individuals with the lowest initial credit scores. However, initial debt levels were lower for individuals in the lowest 20% of the initial credit score distribution. As a result, the contribution to the total dollar rise in household debt was strongest among individuals in the 20th to 60th percentile of the initial credit score distribution. Consistent with the importance of home-equity based borrowing, the increase in debt is especially large among individuals in the lowest 60% of the credit score distribution living in high house price growth zip codes. In contrast, the borrowing of individuals in the top 20% of the credit score distribution is completely unresponsive to higher house price growth. In terms of defaults, the evidence is unambiguous: both default rates and the share of total delinquent debt is largest among individuals with low initial credit scores. The bottom 40% of the credit score distribution is responsible for 73% of the total amount of delinquent debt in 2007, and 68% of the total in 2008. Individuals in the top 40% of the initial credit score distribution never make up more than 15% of total delinquencies, even in 2009 at the height of the default crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2015. "Household Debt and Defaults from 2000 to 2010: Facts from Credit Bureau Data," NBER Working Papers 21203, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21203
    Note: AP CF EFG ME
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2017. "Fraudulent Income Overstatement on Mortgage Applications During the Credit Expansion of 2002 to 2005," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(6), pages 1832-1864.
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    Cited by:

    1. Athiphat Muthitacharoen & Krislert Samphantharak & Sommarat Chantarat, 2019. "Fiscal stimulus and debt burden: evidence from Thailand’s first-car-buyer tax rebate program," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 26(6), pages 1383-1415, December.
    2. Albanesi, Stefania & DeGiorgi, Giacomo & Nosal, Jaromir, 2022. "Credit growth and the financial crisis: A new narrative," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 118-139.
    3. Sommarat Chantarat & Athiphat Muthitacharoen & Krislert Samphantharak, 2017. "Fiscal Stimulus and Household Debt: Evidence from Thailand's First-Car Buyer Tax Rebate," PIER Discussion Papers 60, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    4. Nelson Lind, 2017. "Credit Regimes and the Seeds of Crisis," 2017 Meeting Papers 1474, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Kaelo Mpho Ntwaepelo, 2021. "The Effects of Macroprudential and Monetary Policy Shocks in BRICS economies," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2021-20, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    6. Jiseob Kim, 2016. "Why household debt held by Korean seniors is problematic: An international comparison," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(4), pages 2080-2093.
    7. Allen N. Berger & Onesime Epouhe & Raluca Roman, 2021. "A Tale of Two Bailouts: Effects of TARP and PPP on Subprime Consumer Debt," Working Papers 21-32, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    8. Sommarat Chantarat & Atchana Lamsam & Krislert Samphantharak & Bhumjai Tangsawasdirat, 2017. "Thailand's Household Debt through the Lens of Credit Bureau Data: Debt and Delinquency," PIER Discussion Papers 61, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    9. Gregory Bauer & Gurnain Pasricha & Rodrigo Sekkel & Yaz Terajima, 2018. "The Global Financial Cycle, Monetary Policies, and Macroprudential Regulations in Small, Open Economies," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 44(2), pages 81-99, June.
    10. Olivier Mesly & David W. Shanafelt & Nicolas Huck, 2021. "Dysfunctional Markets: A Spray of Prey Perspective," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(3), pages 797-819, July.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • R3 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location

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