IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/halshs-04409393.html

Impacts of extreme weather events on mortgage risks and their evolution under climate change: A case study on Florida

Author

Listed:
  • Raffaella Calabrese

    (The University of Edinburgh)

  • Timothy Dombrowski

    (University of Missouri [St. Louis] - University of Missouri System)

  • Antoine Mandel

    (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • R. Kelley Pace

    (LSU - Louisiana State University [BatonRouge])

  • Luca Zanin

    (Prometeia)

Abstract

We develop an additive Cox proportional hazard model with time-varying covariates, including spatio-temporal characteristics of weather events, to study the impact of weather extremes (heavy rains and tropical cyclones) on the probability of mortgage default and prepayment. We compare the survival model with a flexible logistic model and an extreme gradient boosting algorithm. We estimate the models on a portfolio of mortgages in Florida, consisting of 69,046 loans and 3,707,831 loan-month observations with localization data at the five-digit ZIP code level. We find a statistically significant and non-linear impact of tropical cyclone intensity on default as well as a significant impact of heavy rains in areas with large exposure to flood risks. These findings confirm existing results in the literature and also provide estimates of the impact of the extreme event characteristics on mortgage risk, e.g. the impact of tropical cyclones on default more than doubles in magnitude when moving from a hurricane of category two to a hurricane of category three or more. We build on the identified effect of exposure to flood risk (in interaction with heavy rainfall) on mortgage default to perform a scenario analysis of the future impacts of climate change using the First Street flood model, which provides projections of exposure to floods in 2050 under RCP 4.5. We find a systematic increase in risk under climate change that can vary based on the scenario of extreme events considered. Climate-adjusted credit risk allows risk managers to better evaluate the impact of climate-related risks on mortgage portfolios.

Suggested Citation

  • Raffaella Calabrese & Timothy Dombrowski & Antoine Mandel & R. Kelley Pace & Luca Zanin, 2024. "Impacts of extreme weather events on mortgage risks and their evolution under climate change: A case study on Florida," Post-Print halshs-04409393, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-04409393
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2023.11.022
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a
    for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Pascal Kundig & Fabio Sigrist, 2024. "A Spatio-Temporal Machine Learning Model for Mortgage Credit Risk: Default Probabilities and Loan Portfolios," Papers 2410.02846, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2025.
    2. Si-Yao Wei & Kun-Liang Jiang & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2024. "Uncertainty and financial market resilience: Evidence from China," Papers 2409.18422, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2025.
    3. D’Orazio, Paola, 2025. "Climate risks and financial stability: Evidence on the effectiveness of climate-related financial policies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    4. Fátima Sol Murta & Paulo Miguel Gama, 2024. "Sustainability and the domestic credit market: worldwide evidence," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 14(4), pages 827-845, December.
    5. Fabozzi, Frank J. & Recchioni, Maria Cristina & Renò, Roberto, 2025. "Fifty years at the interface between financial modeling and operations research," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 327(1), pages 1-21.
    6. Ligang Ren & Dasen Huang & Ao Shu & Lingbing Feng, 2025. "Pathways to Urban Green Innovation: Does Extreme Temperature Pose a Barrier?," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 46(4), pages 2388-2412, June.
    7. Cheng, Teng Yuan & Dong, Liang & Dong, Yuxuan & Lam, Keith S.K., 2025. "How does climate risk affect corporate financialization?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    8. Caroline Hopkins & Alexandra Marr & November Wilson, 2024. "How Does Mortgage Performance Vary Across Borrower Demographics Following a Hurricane?," FHFA Staff Working Papers 24-09, Federal Housing Finance Agency.
    9. Oznur Isinkaralar, 2024. "QGIS-based modeling and analysis of urban dynamics affecting land surface temperature towards climate hazards in coastal zones of Portugal," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 120(8), pages 7749-7764, June.
    10. Chen Yujia & Ding Zhenghong & Barbaglia Luca & Calabrese Raffaella & Fatica Serena, 2025. "A climate stress testing exercise on loans to European small and medium enterprises," JRC Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2025-06, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.
    11. Biswas, Indranil & Pagare, Dewang & Tiwari, Sunil & Choi, Tsan-Ming, 2025. "Managing supply chains facing extreme weather: Supplier’s nature and investment," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 325(3), pages 457-473.
    12. Bertrand, Jean-Louis & Chabot, Miia & Brusset, Xavier & Courquin, Valentin, 2024. "Identifying assets exposed to physical climate risk: A decision-support methodology," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    13. Zanin, Luca & Calabrese, Raffaella & Thorburn, Connor Innes, 2024. "Climate stress testing for mortgage default probability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PB).
    14. Zanin, Luca, 2025. "Corporate carbon emissions and financial performance: A flexible copula-based model to address non-random sample selection," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    15. Xu, Xin & An, Haizhong & Huang, Shupei & Jia, Nanfei & Qi, Yajie, 2024. "Measurement of daily climate physical risks and climate transition risks faced by China's energy sector stocks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PB), pages 625-640.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-04409393. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.