IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2409.18422.html

Uncertainty and financial market resilience: Evidence from China

Author

Listed:
  • Si-Yao Wei
  • Kun-Liang Jiang
  • Wei-Xing Zhou

Abstract

Financial market resilience reflects the ability of a financial market to withstand external shocks and to recover from them, while its measurement has yet to be standardized. Accordingly, this paper quantifies the adaptability and recoverability of China's total financial market and five key sub-markets as both proxy indicators of their resilience. The results highlight the event-driven nature of China's financial market resilience and reveal a strong correlation between the two indicators, which is more pronounced in the stock and bond markets. Using the Diebold-Yilmaz connectedness approach, we further examine volatility spillovers among resilience of sub-markets and identify the foreign exchange market as a major transmitter of spillovers, whereas the stock and bulk commodity markets primarily act as net recipients of spillovers. Moreover, we analyze the impacts of five China-related uncertainties on financial market resilience. Overall, geopolitical risks, economic and trade policy uncertainty, and U.S.-China tensions exert significant negative impacts on total market resilience, while the effect of climate policy uncertainty remains less pronounced. Importantly, the impacts of different uncertainties exhibit heterogeneity across resilience of sub-markets. Our findings not only enrich the resilience measurement of financial market but also provide new evidence to inform targeted risk management and policy design aimed at strengthening financial system's resilience.

Suggested Citation

  • Si-Yao Wei & Kun-Liang Jiang & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2024. "Uncertainty and financial market resilience: Evidence from China," Papers 2409.18422, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2025.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2409.18422
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2409.18422
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Xiaohang Ren & Yiying Li & Qiang Ji & Pengxiang Zhai, 2025. "Climate policy uncertainty and the green bond market: fresh insights from the QARDL model," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 464-469, February.
    2. Bethke, Sebastian & Gehde-Trapp, Monika & Kempf, Alexander, 2017. "Investor sentiment, flight-to-quality, and corporate bond comovement," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 112-132.
    3. Perras, Patrizia & Wagner, Niklas, 2020. "Pricing equity-bond covariance risk: Between flight-to-quality and fear-of-missing-out," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    4. Aein Khabazian & Jiming Peng, 2019. "Vulnerability Analysis of the Financial Network," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(7), pages 3302-3321, July.
    5. Alessio Ciullo & Eric Strobl & Simona Meiler & Olivia Martius & David N. Bresch, 2023. "Increasing countries’ financial resilience through global catastrophe risk pooling," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    6. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/114p6m6s0395gqm0es4g7kgv3u is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Chen, Zhuo & He, Zhiguo & Liu, Chun, 2020. "The financing of local government in China: Stimulus loan wanes and shadow banking waxes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 42-71.
    8. Silva, Walmir & Kimura, Herbert & Sobreiro, Vinicius Amorim, 2017. "An analysis of the literature on systemic financial risk: A survey," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 91-114.
    9. Marco Del Negro & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2015. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy: A Corrigendum," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(4), pages 1342-1345.
    10. Chen, Yilin & Sun, Chentong & Zhang, Xu, 2025. "Analyzing and forecasting China's financial resilience: Measurement techniques and identification of key influencing factors," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    11. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
    12. Koetter, Michael & Krause, Thomas & Sfrappini, Eleonora & Tonzer, Lena, 2022. "Completing the European Banking Union: Capital cost consequences for credit providers and corporate borrowers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    13. Davis, J. Scott & Valente, Giorgio & van Wincoop, Eric, 2021. "Global drivers of gross and net capital flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    14. Rizwan, Muhammad Suhail, 2021. "Macroprudential regulations and systemic risk: Does the one-size-fits-all approach work?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    15. Torabi, S.A. & Mansouri, S.A., 2015. "Integrated business continuity and disaster recovery planning: Towards organizational resilienceAuthor-Name: Sahebjamnia, N," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 242(1), pages 261-273.
    16. Gagnon, Joseph E. & Sarsenbayev, Madi, 2023. "Dollar not so dominant: Dollar invoicing has only a small effect on trade prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    17. Linnemann, Ludger & Schabert, Andreas, 2015. "Liquidity premia and interest rate parity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 178-192.
    18. Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Iyke, Bernard Njindan & Sharma, Susan Sunila & Affandi, Yoga, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and financial stability–Is there a relation?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 1018-1029.
    19. Chernykh, Lucy & Davydov, Denis & Sihvonen, Jukka, 2023. "Financial Stability and Public Confidence in Banks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    20. Qilong Zhang & Yaobo Shi & Xinxin Zhao & Jinghao Yang, 2025. "Climate vulnerability, macroprudential policy, and financial risk," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 27(4), pages 1-24, December.
    21. Chen, Yilin & Sun, Chentong, 2024. "A new method for measuring financial resilience," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    22. Chen, Qiang & Gong, Yuting, 2019. "The economic sources of China's CSI 300 spot and futures volatilities before and after the 2015 stock market crisis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 102-121.
    23. Tang, Chun & Liu, Xiaoxing & Yang, Guangyi, 2024. "A study of financial market resilience in China — From a hot money shock perspective," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    24. Du, Yanan & Wang, Qingxi & Zhou, Jianping, 2023. "How does digital inclusive finance affect economic resilience: Evidence from 285 cities in China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    25. Haiqiang Chen & Terence Tai Leung Chong & Yingni She, 2014. "A principal component approach to measuring investor sentiment in China," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(4), pages 573-579, April.
    26. You, Wanhai & Guo, Yawei & Zhu, Huiming & Tang, Yong, 2017. "Oil price shocks, economic policy uncertainty and industry stock returns in China: Asymmetric effects with quantile regression," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 1-18.
    27. Blot, Christophe & Creel, Jérôme & Hubert, Paul & Labondance, Fabien & Saraceno, Francesco, 2015. "Assessing the link between price and financial stability," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 71-88.
    28. Bui, Christina & Scheule, Harald & Wu, Eliza, 2017. "The value of bank capital buffers in maintaining financial system resilience," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 23-40.
    29. Peter Klimek & Sebastian Poledna & Stefan Thurner, 2019. "Quantifying economic resilience from input–output susceptibility to improve predictions of economic growth and recovery," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-9, December.
    30. Maurice Obstfeld & Jay C. Shambaugh & Alan M. Taylor, 2010. "Financial Stability, the Trilemma, and International Reserves," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 57-94, April.
    31. Costantini, Mauro & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2022. "What uncertainty does to euro area sovereign bond markets: Flight to safety and flight to quality," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    32. Zou, Yanchi, 2024. "The impact of fiscal stimulus on employment: Evidence from China’s four-trillion RMB package," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    33. Xu, Dandan & Liu, Yuting, 2024. "How does technological progress affect provincial financial resilience? Evidence at the provincial level in China," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    34. Yousaf, Imran & Ohikhuare, Obaika M. & Li, Yong & Li, Yanshuang, 2024. "Interconnectedness between electricity and artificial intelligence-based markets during the crisis periods: Evidence from the TVP-VAR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    35. Tang, Chun & Liu, Xiaoxing & Zhou, Donghai, 2022. "Financial market resilience and financial development: A global perspective," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    36. Ayadi, Mohamed A. & Ben Omrane, Walid & Panah, Pari Gholi, 2025. "Foreign exchange markets, climate risks and contextual news: An intraday analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    37. (Jeremy) Chiu, Ching-wai & Harris, Richard D.F. & Stoja, Evarist & Chin, Michael, 2018. "Financial market Volatility, macroeconomic fundamentals and investor Sentiment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 130-145.
    38. Chen, Wei-Da & Chen, Yehning & Huang, Shu-Chun, 2021. "Liquidity risk and bank performance during financial crises," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    39. Sun, Yunchuan & Wu, Mengyuan & Zeng, Xiaoping & Peng, Zihan, 2021. "The impact of COVID-19 on the Chinese stock market: Sentimental or substantial?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    40. He, Qing & Liang, Bailin & Liu, Junyi, 2024. "RMB internationalization and exchange rate exposure of Chinese listed firms," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    41. Jon Danielsson & Marcela Valenzuela & Ilknur Zer, 2018. "Learning from History: Volatility and Financial Crises," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(7), pages 2774-2805.
    42. Creel, Jérôme & Hubert, Paul & Labondance, Fabien, 2015. "Financial stability and economic performance," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 25-40.
    43. Bernard Fingleton & Harry Garretsen & Ron Martin, 2012. "Recessionary Shocks And Regional Employment: Evidence On The Resilience Of U.K. Regions," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(1), pages 109-133, February.
    44. Wei Xie & Adam Rose & Shantong Li & Jianwu He & Ning Li & Tariq Ali, 2018. "Dynamic Economic Resilience and Economic Recovery from Disasters: A Quantitative Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(6), pages 1306-1318, June.
    45. Abiad, Abdul & Bluedorn, John & Guajardo, Jaime & Topalova, Petia, 2015. "The Rising Resilience of Emerging Market and Developing Economies," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 1-26.
    46. Calabrese, Raffaella & Dombrowski, Timothy & Mandel, Antoine & Pace, R. Kelley & Zanin, Luca, 2024. "Impacts of extreme weather events on mortgage risks and their evolution under climate change: A case study on Florida," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 314(1), pages 377-392.
    47. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2013. "Corrigendum: Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 320-322, August.
    48. Cheema, Muhammad A. & Faff, Robert & Szulczyk, Kenneth R., 2022. "The 2008 global financial crisis and COVID-19 pandemic: How safe are the safe haven assets?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    49. Kannadhasan, M. & Das, Debojyoti, 2020. "Do Asian emerging stock markets react to international economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk alike? A quantile regression approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    50. Emmanuel C. Mamatzakis & Mike G. Tsionas, 2021. "A Bayesian panel stochastic volatility measure of financial stability," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5363-5384, October.
    51. Zhu, Sha & Xia, Yuqin & Li, Qiuxuan & Chen, Yunjia, 2025. "Global geopolitical risk and financial stability: Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    52. Andrew G. Haldane & Robert M. May, 2011. "Systemic risk in banking ecosystems," Nature, Nature, vol. 469(7330), pages 351-355, January.
    53. Baohui Wu & Feng Min & Fenghua Wen, 2023. "The stress contagion among financial markets and its determinants," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(11), pages 1267-1302, July.
    54. Naifar, Nader, 2024. "Climate policy uncertainty and comparative reactions across sustainable sectors: Resilience or vulnerability?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    55. Klomp, Jeroen, 2013. "Government interventions and default risk: Does one size fit all?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 641-653.
    56. Greenwood-Nimmo, Matthew & Tarassow, Artur, 2016. "Monetary shocks, macroprudential shocks and financial stability," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 11-24.
    57. Glebocki, Helena & Saha, Sujata, 2024. "Global uncertainty and exchange rate conditions: Assessing the impact of uncertainty shocks in emerging markets and advanced economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    58. Liang, Chao & Goodell, John W. & Li, Xiafei, 2024. "Impacts of carbon market and climate policy uncertainties on financial and economic stability: Evidence from connectedness network analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    59. Bai, Jiangtao & Song, He & Wang, Haojie & Liu, Yuetong, 2025. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock market reactions to earnings announcements: Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    60. Battiston, Stefano & Delli Gatti, Domenico & Gallegati, Mauro & Greenwald, Bruce & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2012. "Liaisons dangereuses: Increasing connectivity, risk sharing, and systemic risk," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1121-1141.
    61. Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2024. "Presidential Address: Macrofinance and Resilience," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(6), pages 3683-3728, December.
    62. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5euk7d0f8t81prfu1k2sspdcok is not listed on IDEAS
    63. Wei, Yu & Wang, Zhuo & Zhou, Xiaorui & Shang, Yue & Ren, Lin, 2024. "Are the leading indicators really leading? Evidence from mixed-frequency spillover approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(PB).
    64. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou & David Gabauer, 2021. "The impact of Euro through time: Exchange rate dynamics under different regimes," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 1375-1408, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chen, Yilin & Sun, Chentong & Zhang, Xu, 2025. "Analyzing and forecasting China's financial resilience: Measurement techniques and identification of key influencing factors," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    2. Zhou, Jie & Wang, Lei & Li, Bochen & Luo, Zidan, 2026. "Financial digitalization and financial stability: Evidence from Chinese cities," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    3. Hu, Wenbin & Zhou, Junzi, 2025. "Measuring and forecasting financial system resilience under multiple shocks: A survival analysis approach," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    4. Sun, Chentong & Yi, Shangkun & Wu, Fenglin & Li, Yanshuang & Dong, Zibing, 2025. "Mainshocks and aftershocks: Assessing the resilience of Asia-Pacific stock markets amid global financial cycle shocks," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    5. Wang, Hao & Xu, Ning & Yin, Haiyan & Ji, Hao, 2022. "The dynamic impact of monetary policy on financial stability in China after crises," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    6. Ouyang, Zisheng & Deng, Yaoxun & Lai, Yongzeng, 2026. "Measuring the resilience of higher-order financial risk networks: A new interpretable multidimensional method," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    7. Li, Fei & Kang, Hao & Xu, Jingfeng, 2022. "Financial stability and network complexity: A random matrix approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 177-185.
    8. Irena Vodenska & Alexander P. Becker & Di Zhou & Dror Y. Kenett & H. Eugene Stanley & Shlomo Havlin, 2016. "Community Analysis of Global Financial Markets," Risks, MDPI, vol. 4(2), pages 1-15, May.
    9. Kai‐Hua Wang & Zu‐Shan Wang & Hong‐Wen Liu & Xin Li, 2023. "Economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk: evidence from China and Southeast Asia," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 37(2), pages 96-118, November.
    10. Bellavite Pellegrini, Carlo & Cincinelli, Peter & Meoli, Michele & Urga, Giovanni, 2022. "The contribution of (shadow) banks and real estate to systemic risk in China," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    11. Ana I. C. Pereda, 2025. "Systemic Risk and Default Cascades in Global Equity Markets: Extending the Gai-Kapadia Framework with Stochastic Simulations and Network Analysis," Papers 2504.01969, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2025.
    12. Hongjie Pan & Hong Fan, 2024. "Systemic Risk Arising from Shadow Banking and Sustainable Development: A Study of Wealth Management Products in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-26, May.
    13. Wang, Xueli & Wang, Lei & Zhang, Xuerong & Fan, Fei, 2022. "The spatiotemporal evolution of COVID-19 in China and its impact on urban economic resilience," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    14. Chao, Xiangrui & Ran, Qin & Chen, Jia & Li, Tie & Qian, Qian & Ergu, Daji, 2022. "Regulatory technology (Reg-Tech) in financial stability supervision: Taxonomy, key methods, applications and future directions," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    15. Emon Kalyan Chowdhury & Mohammad Nayeem Abdullah, 2024. "Gauging Demand for Cryptocurrency over the Economic Policy Uncertainty and Stock Market Volatility," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 64(1), pages 37-55, July.
    16. Li, Zechun & Zhang, Weiwei & Gao, Xinran & Zhang, Xu & Sun, Chentong, 2026. "Does better governance strengthen financial market resilience? evidence from G20 countries," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    17. Bouteska, A. & Ha, Le Thanh & Hassan, M. Kabir & Safa, M. Faisal, 2024. "Riding the waves of investor sentiment: Cryptocurrency price and renewable energy volatility during the pandemic-war era," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    18. Li, Zhenglun & Zhao, Pei & Ma, Chen & Wang, Qiang, 2026. "The test of financial resilience in emerging market economies: Dual shocks from geopolitical risks and global liquidity tightening," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    19. Matteo Foglia & Eliana Angelini, 2019. "The Time-Spatial Dimension of Eurozone Banking Systemic Risk," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-25, July.
    20. Qin, Xiao, 2020. "Oil shocks and financial systemic stress: International evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2409.18422. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.