IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/quantf/v14y2014i4p573-579.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A principal component approach to measuring investor sentiment in China

Author

Listed:
  • Haiqiang Chen
  • Terence Tai Leung Chong
  • Yingni She

Abstract

This paper develops a new investor sentiment index for the Chinese stock market. The index is constructed via the principal component approach (PCA), taking six important economic and market factors into consideration. The sentiment index serves as a threshold variable in a threshold autoregressive model to identify the stock market regimes. Our findings show that the Chinese stock market can be divided into three regimes: namely, a high-return volatile regime, a low-return stable regime and a neutral regime. The sentiment index is shown to have good out-of-sample predictability.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Haiqiang Chen & Terence Tai Leung Chong & Yingni She, 2014. "A principal component approach to measuring investor sentiment in China," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(4), pages 573-579, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:14:y:2014:i:4:p:573-579
    DOI: 10.1080/14697688.2013.869698
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/14697688.2013.869698
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/14697688.2013.869698?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Baker, Malcolm & Stein, Jeremy C., 2004. "Market liquidity as a sentiment indicator," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 271-299, June.
    2. Maheu, John M & McCurdy, Thomas H, 2000. "Identifying Bull and Bear Markets in Stock Returns," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(1), pages 100-112, January.
    3. Gregory W. Brown & Michael T. Cliff, 2005. "Investor Sentiment and Asset Valuation," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(2), pages 405-440, March.
    4. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2006. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross‐Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1645-1680, August.
    5. Schmeling, Maik, 2009. "Investor sentiment and stock returns: Some international evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 394-408, June.
    6. Haiqiang Chen & Terence Chong & Jushan Bai, 2012. "Theory and Applications of TAR Model with Two Threshold Variables," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 142-170.
    7. Karpoff, Jonathan M., 1987. "The Relation between Price Changes and Trading Volume: A Survey," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(1), pages 109-126, March.
    8. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2007. "Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(2), pages 129-152, Spring.
    9. Bruce E. Hansen, 2000. "Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(3), pages 575-604, May.
    10. Adrian R. Pagan & Kirill A. Sossounov, 2003. "A simple framework for analysing bull and bear markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 23-46.
    11. Haiqiang Chen & Terence Tai-Leung Chong & Xin Duan, 2010. "A principal-component approach to measuring investor sentiment," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 339-347.
    12. Thomas C. Chiang & Zhuo Qiao & Wing-Keung Wong, 2010. "New evidence on the relation between return volatility and trading volume," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(5), pages 502-515.
    13. Brown, Gregory W. & Cliff, Michael T., 2004. "Investor sentiment and the near-term stock market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 1-27, January.
    14. Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Terence Tai-Leung Chong, Bingqing Cao, Wing Keung Wong, 2017. "A Principal Component Approach to Measuring Investor Sentiment in Hong Kong," Journal of Management Sciences, Geist Science, Iqra University, Faculty of Business Administration, vol. 4(2), pages 237-247, October.
    2. Tan, Siow-Hooi & Lai, Ming-Ming & Tey, Eng-Xin & Chong, Lee-Lee, 2020. "Testing the performance of technical analysis and sentiment-TAR trading rules in the Malaysian stock market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    3. Rakovská, Zuzana, 2021. "Composite survey sentiment as a predictor of future market returns: Evidence for German equity indices," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 473-495.
    4. Dahmene, Meriam & Boughrara, Adel & Slim, Skander, 2021. "Nonlinearity in stock returns: Do risk aversion, investor sentiment and, monetary policy shocks matter?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 676-699.
    5. Seok, Sang Ik & Cho, Hoon & Ryu, Doojin, 2019. "Firm-specific investor sentiment and daily stock returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    6. Wang, Wenzhao & Su, Chen & Duxbury, Darren, 2021. "Investor sentiment and stock returns: Global evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 365-391.
    7. repec:wyi:journl:002214 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Hou, Yang & Meng, Jiayin, 2018. "The momentum effect in the Chinese market and its relationship with the simultaneous and the lagged investor sentiment," MPRA Paper 94838, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Gao, Bin & Liu, Xihua, 2020. "Intraday sentiment and market returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 48-62.
    10. Seok, Sangik & Cho, Hoon & Ryu, Doojin, 2022. "Scheduled macroeconomic news announcements and intraday market sentiment," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    11. Chen, Haozhi & Zhang, Yue, 2023. "Research on the effect of firm-specific investor sentiment on the idiosyncratic volatility anomaly: Evidence from the Chinese market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    12. Aissia, Dorsaf Ben, 2016. "Home and foreign investor sentiment and the stock returns," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 71-77.
    13. Nizar Raissi & Sahbi Missaoui, 2015. "Role of investor sentiment in financial markets: an explanation by behavioural finance approach," International Journal of Accounting and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(4), pages 362-401.
    14. Yang, Yan & Copeland, Laurence, 2014. "The Effects of Sentiment on Market Return and Volatility and The Cross-Sectional Risk Premium of Sentiment-affected Volatility," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2014/12, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    15. Yiannis Karavias & Stella Spilioti & Elias Tzavalis, 2021. "Investor sentiment effects on share price deviations from their intrinsic values based on accounting fundamentals," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 1593-1621, May.
    16. Mariem Talbi & Amel Ben Halima, 2019. "Global Contagion of Investor Sentiment during the US Subprime Crisis: The Case of the USA and the Region of Latin America," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 9(3), pages 163-174.
    17. Lan, Yueqin & Huang, Yong & Yan, Chao, 2021. "Investor sentiment and stock price: Empirical evidence from Chinese SEOs," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 703-714.
    18. Finter, Philipp & Niessen-Ruenzi, Alexandra & Ruenzi, Stefan, 2010. "The impact of investor sentiment on the German stock market," CFR Working Papers 10-03, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    19. Wang, Wenzhao & Su, Chen & Duxbury, Darren, 2022. "The conditional impact of investor sentiment in global stock markets: A two-channel examination," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    20. Mehwish Aziz Khan & Eatzaz Ahmad, 2018. "Measurement of Investor Sentiment and Its Bi-Directional Contemporaneous and Lead–Lag Relationship with Returns: Evidence from Pakistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-20, December.
    21. Corredor, Pilar & Ferrer, Elena & Santamaria, Rafael, 2014. "Is cognitive bias really present in analyst forecasts? The role of investor sentiment," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 824-837.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:14:y:2014:i:4:p:573-579. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RQUF20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.