IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ven/wpaper/201603.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Networks in risk spillovers: a multivariate GARCH perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Monica Billio

    () (Department of Economics, University Of Venice C� Foscari)

  • Massimiliano Caporin

    () (Department of Economics, University Of Padova)

  • Lorenzo Frattarolo

    () (SAFE-Goethe University Frankfurt)

  • Loriana Pelizzon

    () (SAFE-Goethe University Frankfurt)

Abstract

We propose a spatial approach for modeling risk spillovers using financial time-varying proximity matrices based on observable networks. We show how these methods could be useful in (i) isolating risk channels, risk spreaders and risk receivers, (ii) investigating the role of portfolio composition in risk transfer, and (iii) computing target exposure structures able to reduce the forecasted system variance and thus the risk of the system. Our empirical analysis builds on banks� foreign exposures provided by the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) as a proxy for Euro area cross-country holdings. We find, in the European sovereign bond markets, that Germany, Italy and, to a lesser extent, Greece are playing a central role in spreading risk, and Ireland and Spain are the most susceptible receivers of spillover effects that can be traced back to a physical claim channel: banks� foreign exposures. We additionally show that acting on these physical channels before the sovereign crisis, it would have been possible to have a clear risk mitigation outcome

Suggested Citation

  • Monica Billio & Massimiliano Caporin & Lorenzo Frattarolo & Loriana Pelizzon, 2016. "Networks in risk spillovers: a multivariate GARCH perspective," Working Papers 2016:03, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
  • Handle: RePEc:ven:wpaper:2016:03
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.unive.it/pag/fileadmin/user_upload/dipartimenti/economia/doc/Pubblicazioni_scientifiche/working_papers/2016/WP_DSE_billio_caporin_frattarolo_pelizzon_03_16.pdf
    File Function: First version, anno
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert Pahre, 2009. "Introduction," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(4), pages 418-419, November.
    2. Freixas, Xavier & Parigi, Bruno M & Rochet, Jean-Charles, 2000. "Systemic Risk, Interbank Relations, and Liquidity Provision by the Central Bank," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(3), pages 611-638, August.
    3. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 2000. "Financial Contagion," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(1), pages 1-33, February.
    4. Patrick McGuire & Philip Wooldridge, 2005. "The BIS consolidated banking statistics: structure, uses and recent enhancements," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    5. Massimiliano Caporin & Paolo Paruolo, 2015. "Proximity-Structured Multivariate Volatility Models," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(5), pages 559-593, May.
    6. Dimitrios Bisias & Mark Flood & Andrew W. Lo & Stavros Valavanis, 2012. "A Survey of Systemic Risk Analytics," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 255-296, October.
    7. Pelletier, Denis, 2006. "Regime switching for dynamic correlations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 445-473.
    8. Marcello Pericoli & Massimo Sbracia, 2003. "A Primer on Financial Contagion," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(4), pages 571-608, September.
    9. Kee-Hong Bae & G. Andrew Karolyi & René M. Stulz, 2003. "A New Approach to Measuring Financial Contagion," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(3), pages 717-763, July.
    10. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 1997. "Emerging equity market volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 29-77, January.
    11. repec:spr:stmapp:v:14:y:2005:i:2:d:10.1007_s10260-005-0108-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Nicholas Bardsley & Robin Cubitt & Graham Loomes & Peter Moffatt & Chris Starmer & Robert Sugden, 2009. "Introduction," Introductory Chapters,in: Experimental Economics: Rethinking the Rules Princeton University Press.
    13. Kristin J. Forbes, 2012. "The “Big C”: identifying and mitigating contagion," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 23-87.
    14. Dimitris Politis & Halbert White, 2004. "Automatic Block-Length Selection for the Dependent Bootstrap," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(1), pages 53-70.
    15. Keiler, Sebastian & Eder, Armin, 2013. "CDS spreads and systemic risk: A spatial econometric approach," Discussion Papers 01/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    16. Larry Eisenberg & Thomas H. Noe, 2001. "Systemic Risk in Financial Systems," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 47(2), pages 236-249, February.
    17. Rochet, Jean-Charles & Tirole, Jean, 1996. "Interbank Lending and Systemic Risk," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(4), pages 733-762, November.
    18. Augusto Hasman, 2013. "A Critical Review Of Contagion Risk In Banking," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(5), pages 978-995, December.
    19. Christian M. Hafner, 2003. "Fourth Moment Structure of Multivariate GARCH Models," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 1(1), pages 26-54.
    20. Hafner, Christian M. & Preminger, Arie, 2009. "On asymptotic theory for multivariate GARCH models," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(9), pages 2044-2054, October.
    21. Kristin Forbes, 2012. "The "Big C": Identifying Contagion," NBER Working Papers 18465, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Hsiang-Tai Lee & Jonathan Yoder, 2007. "A bivariate Markov regime switching GARCH approach to estimate time varying minimum variance hedge ratios," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(10), pages 1253-1265.
    23. Gianni Toniolo & Eugene N. White, 2015. "The Evolution of the Financial Stability Mandate: From Its Origins to the Present Day," NBER Working Papers 20844, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Billio, Monica & Pelizzon, Loriana, 2003. "Volatility and shocks spillover before and after EMU in European stock markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 13(4-5), pages 323-340, December.
    25. Robert McCauley & Patrick McGuire & Goetz von Peter, 2010. "The architecture of global banking: from international to multinational?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. van de Leur, Michiel C.W. & Lucas, André & Seeger, Norman J., 2017. "Network, market, and book-based systemic risk rankings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 84-90.
    2. Francesco Giuseppe Caloia & Andrea Cipollini & Silvia Muzzioli, 2016. "A note on normalization schemes:The case of generalized forecast error variance decompositions," Department of Economics 0092, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    3. Bonaccolto, Giovanni & Caporin, Massimiliano & Panzica, Roberto Calogero, 2017. "Estimation and model-based combination of causality networks," SAFE Working Paper Series 165, Research Center SAFE - Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe, Goethe University Frankfurt.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    spatial GARCH; network; risk spillover; financial spillover;

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ven:wpaper:2016:03. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Geraldine Ludbrook). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/dsvenit.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.