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On moment conditions for quasi-maximum likelihood estimation of multivariate ARCH models

Author

Listed:
  • Marco Avarucci

    (Maastricht University)

  • Eric Beutner

    (Maastricht University)

  • Paolo Zaffaroni

    (Imperial College London and Università di Roma "La Sapienza")

Abstract

This paper questions whether it is possible to derive consistency and asymptotic normality of the Gaussian quasi-maximum likelihood estimator (QMLE) for possibly the simplest VEC-GARCH model, namely the multivariate ARCH(1) model of the BEKK form, under weak moment conditions similar to the univariate case. In contrast to the univariate specification, we show that the expectation of the loglikelihood function is unbounded, away from the true parameter value, if (and only if) the observable has unbounded second moment. Despite this non-standard feature, consistency of the Gaussian QMLE is still warranted. The same moment condition proves to be necessary and sucient for the stationarity of the score, when evaluated at the true parameter value. This explains why high moment conditions, typically bounded sixth moment and above, have been used hitherto in the literature to establish the asymptotic normality of the QMLE in the multivariate framework.

Suggested Citation

  • Marco Avarucci & Eric Beutner & Paolo Zaffaroni, 2012. "On moment conditions for quasi-maximum likelihood estimation of multivariate ARCH models," DSS Empirical Economics and Econometrics Working Papers Series 2012/1, Centre for Empirical Economics and Econometrics, Department of Statistics, "Sapienza" University of Rome.
  • Handle: RePEc:sas:wpaper:20121
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    File URL: http://www.dss.uniroma1.it/RePec/sas/wpaper/20121_ABZ.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Silvennoinen, Annastiina & Teräsvirta, Timo, 2007. "Multivariate GARCH models," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 669, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 18 Jan 2008.
    2. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 122-150, February.
    3. Stelzer, Robert, 2008. "On The Relation Between The Vec And Bekk Multivariate Garch Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(04), pages 1131-1136, August.
    4. Bougerol, Philippe & Picard, Nico, 1992. "Stationarity of Garch processes and of some nonnegative time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 115-127.
    5. Jensen, S ren Tolver & Rahbek, Anders, 2004. "Asymptotic Inference For Nonstationary Garch," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(06), pages 1203-1226, December.
    6. Sébastien Laurent & Luc Bauwens & Jeroen V. K. Rombouts, 2006. "Multivariate GARCH models: a survey," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 79-109.
    7. Hafner, Christian M. & Preminger, Arie, 2009. "Asymptotic Theory For A Factor Garch Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(02), pages 336-363, April.
    8. Lee, Sang-Won & Hansen, Bruce E., 1994. "Asymptotic Theory for the Garch(1,1) Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimator," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(01), pages 29-52, March.
    9. Abadir,Karim M. & Magnus,Jan R., 2005. "Matrix Algebra," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521537469, April.
    10. Roberts, Leigh A., 1995. "On the Existence of Moments of Ratios of Quadratic Forms," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(04), pages 750-774, August.
    11. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521822893 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Nelson, Daniel B., 1990. "Stationarity and Persistence in the GARCH(1,1) Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(03), pages 318-334, September.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Rasmus S. Pedersen & Anders Rahbek, 2014. "Multivariate variance targeting in the BEKK–GARCH model," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 17(1), pages 24-55, February.
    2. repec:eee:intfor:v:34:y:2018:i:1:p:45-63 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:eee:econom:v:204:y:2018:i:2:p:223-247 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Darolles, Serges & Francq, Christian & Laurent, Sébastien, 2018. "Asymptotics of Cholesky GARCH models and time-varying conditional betas," MPRA Paper 83988, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Rasmus Pedersen & Olivier Wintenberger, 2017. "On the tail behavior of a class of multivariate conditionally heteroskedastic processes," Papers 1701.05091, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2017.
    6. Rasmus Pedersen & Olivier Wintenberger, 2017. "On the tail behavior of a class of multivariate conditionally heteroskedastic processes," Post-Print hal-01436267, HAL.
    7. Rasmus Pedersen & Olivier Wintenberger, 2017. "On the tail behavior of a class of multivariate conditionally heteroskedastic processes," Working Papers hal-01436267, HAL.
    8. Anders Rahbek & Heino Bohn Nielsen, 2012. "Unit root vector autoregression with volatility induced stationarity," Discussion Papers 12-02, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    9. Nielsen, Heino Bohn & Rahbek, Anders, 2014. "Unit root vector autoregression with volatility induced stationarity," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 144-167.
    10. Christian Francq & Jean-Michel Zakoïan, 2016. "Estimating multivariate volatility models equation by equation," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 78(3), pages 613-635, June.
    11. de Almeida, Daniel & Hotta, Luiz K. & Ruiz, Esther, 2018. "MGARCH models: Trade-off between feasibility and flexibility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 45-63.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    multivariate ARCH models. moment conditions. VEC-GARCH.;

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