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How do Chinese urban investment bonds affect its economic resilience? Evidence from double machine learning

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  • Fang, Yan
  • Liu, Yinglin
  • Yang, Yi
  • Lucey, Brian
  • Abedin, Mohammad Zoynul

Abstract

This paper employs the double machine learning model to investigate the impact of urban investment bonds on economic resilience. To deal with a broad set of macroeconomic and industry variables, LASSO is used for model estimation. The sample consists of 239 Chinese cities that issued debt and loan instruments between 2016 and 2021. The results show that 1) urban investment bonds have a positive, inverted U-shaped effect on economic resilience; 2) the ability to recover from an economic shock plays an important role in constructing the Chinese economic resilience index. The heterogeneity analysis reveals that the impact of urban investment bonds on economic resilience varies according to cities’ locations, industrial structure, and financial structure. Furthermore, the mechanism analysis demonstrates that urban investment bonds enhance economic resilience by promoting infrastructure development. These findings provide helpful guidance for China and other developing countries to ensure financing security and maintain robust economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Fang, Yan & Liu, Yinglin & Yang, Yi & Lucey, Brian & Abedin, Mohammad Zoynul, 2025. "How do Chinese urban investment bonds affect its economic resilience? Evidence from double machine learning," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:74:y:2025:i:c:s027553192400521x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2024.102728
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic Resilience; Urban Investment Debts; Double Machine Learning; LASSO Technique; Heterogeneity Analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General

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