IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v120y2024i8d10.1007_s11069-024-06519-y.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

QGIS-based modeling and analysis of urban dynamics affecting land surface temperature towards climate hazards in coastal zones of Portugal

Author

Listed:
  • Oznur Isinkaralar

    (Kastamonu University)

Abstract

Climate risk creates considerable concern due to the density of natural and socio-economic assets in coastal areas. Monitoring land use/cover changes, detecting population growth, and analyzing their impact on land surface temperature (LST) are necessary for effective urban management. In this study, land use/land cover (LULC), population, and LST changes in coastal regions of Portugal. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite imagery was examined using World Bank population and CORINE data. Changes in land use types and LST values from 1990 to 2018 were analyzed. At the same time, LULC predictions were made using the Modules for Land Use Change Simulation (MOLUSCE) plug-in included in the QGIS software, and population projections were analyzed with LULC predictions in 2046. The results show the significant impact of land use on temperatures. It has been demonstrated that green and water areas can effectively cool cities. In the LULC changes between 1990 and 2018, the Leiria region stands out, with an annual increase of 4.04% in built areas from 121.58 to 259.06 km2. According to the simulations between 2018 and 2046, it was predicted that 18.74% of agricultural areas and 14.43% of forest areas would be transformed into built environments. The study is also essential as it confirms that the MOLUSCE plug-in can be effectively applied to land cover simulation on a large regional scale.

Suggested Citation

  • Oznur Isinkaralar, 2024. "QGIS-based modeling and analysis of urban dynamics affecting land surface temperature towards climate hazards in coastal zones of Portugal," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 120(8), pages 7749-7764, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:120:y:2024:i:8:d:10.1007_s11069-024-06519-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-024-06519-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-024-06519-y
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-024-06519-y?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Calabrese, Raffaella & Dombrowski, Timothy & Mandel, Antoine & Pace, R. Kelley & Zanin, Luca, 2024. "Impacts of extreme weather events on mortgage risks and their evolution under climate change: A case study on Florida," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 314(1), pages 377-392.
    2. Cui, Xiaomeng & Zhong, Zheng, 2024. "Climate change, cropland adjustments, and food security: Evidence from China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    3. Chunliu Gao & Deqiang Cheng & Javed Iqbal & Shunyu Yao, 2023. "Spatiotemporal Change Analysis and Prediction of the Great Yellow River Region (GYRR) Land Cover and the Relationship Analysis with Mountain Hazards," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-24, January.
    4. Huang, Junlong & Tang, Zhuo & Liu, Dianfeng & He, Jianhua, 2020. "Ecological response to urban development in a changing socio-economic and climate context: Policy implications for balancing regional development and habitat conservation," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    5. Cláudia M. Viana & Jorge Rocha, 2020. "Evaluating Dominant Land Use/Land Cover Changes and Predicting Future Scenario in a Rural Region Using a Memoryless Stochastic Method," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-28, May.
    6. He, Songtang & Wang, Daojie & Zhao, Peng & Li, Yong & Lan, Huijuan & Chen, Wenle & Jamali, Ali Akbar, 2020. "A review and prospects of debris flow waste-shoal land use in typical debris flow areas, China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    7. Iyke, Bernard Njindan, 2024. "Climate change, energy security risk, and clean energy investment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    8. George Atisa & Alexis E. Racelis, 2022. "Analysis of Urbanization and Climate Change Effects on Community Resilience in the Rio Grande Valley, South Texas," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-15, July.
    9. Ruci Wang & Ahmed Derdouri & Yuji Murayama, 2018. "Spatiotemporal Simulation of Future Land Use/Cover Change Scenarios in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-18, June.
    10. Rajesh Rekapalli & Harsh K. Gupta, 2023. "How long the Mw ≥ 5 aftershocks of the 6 February 2023 Mw 7.8 Turkiye earthquake shall continue?," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(3), pages 3399-3402, July.
    11. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Marotta, Fulvia, 2024. "Demand or Supply? An empirical exploration of the effects of climate change on the macroeconomy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    12. Bakhtiar Feizizadeh & Thomas Blaschke & Hossein Nazmfar & Elahe Akbari & Hamid Reza Kohbanani, 2013. "Monitoring land surface temperature relationship to land use/land cover from satellite imagery in Maraqeh County, Iran," Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(9), pages 1290-1315, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Liu, Jing-Yue & Lei, Quan & Li, Ruojin & Zhang, Yue-Jun, 2024. "Resistance or motivation? Impact of climate risk on corporate greenwashing: An empirical study of Chinese enterprises," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    2. Anghel Madalina-Gabriela & Iacob Stefan Virgil & Strijek Denis-Arthur, 2024. "Relevant Aspects Regarding The European Union Independence On Energy Imports," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 6, pages 12-23, December.
    3. Changqing Sun & Yulong Bao & Battsengel Vandansambuu & Yuhai Bao, 2022. "Simulation and Prediction of Land Use/Cover Changes Based on CLUE-S and CA-Markov Models: A Case Study of a Typical Pastoral Area in Mongolia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-21, November.
    4. Francesco Jacopo Pintus & Jan P.A.M. Jacobs & Elmer Sterken & Jan Jacobs, 2024. "Fiscal Impacts of Climate Anomalies," CESifo Working Paper Series 11548, CESifo.
    5. Liu, Ziheng, 2025. "CO2-driven crop comparative advantage and planting decision: Evidence from US cropland," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    6. Zhiqiang Cheng & Jinyang Cai, 2024. "How do climate anomalies affect the duration of land transfers? Evidence from China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(10), pages 1-20, October.
    7. Hanwen Zhang & Yanqing Lang, 2022. "Quantifying and Analyzing the Responses of Habitat Quality to Land Use Change in Guangdong Province, China over the Past 40 Years," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-23, May.
    8. Ali Akbar Jamali & Ramin Tabatabaee & Timothy O. Randhir, 2021. "Ecotourism and socioeconomic strategies for Khansar River watershed of Iran," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(11), pages 17077-17093, November.
    9. Fan, Yi & Chang, Tsangyao & Ranjbar, Omid, 2024. "Energy security and energy mix diversification nexus in the OECD countries," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 2071-2085.
    10. Si-Yao Wei & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2024. "The impact of climate policy uncertainty on financial market resilience: Evidence from China," Papers 2409.18422, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2025.
    11. Luo, Xiangyu & Jiang, Peng & Yang, Jingyi & Jin, Jing & Yang, Jun, 2021. "Simulating PM2.5 removal in an urban ecosystem based on the social-ecological model framework," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    12. Xue Zhang & Lingyun Liao & Zhengduo Xu & Jiayu Zhang & Mengwei Chi & Siren Lan & Qiaochun Gan, 2022. "Interactive Effects on Habitat Quality Using InVEST and GeoDetector Models in Wenzhou, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-19, April.
    13. Li, Rui & Yang, Huiting & Zhang, Jun, 2024. "Agricultural tax reform, capital investment, and structural transformation in China," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 509-522.
    14. Lina Zhang & Sai Liu & Yung‐ho Chiu & Qinghua Pang & Qiyong Chen & Changfeng Shi, 2024. "Assessing China's energy‐related efficiency towards SDG7 and influencing factors," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(6), pages 6449-6470, December.
    15. Hu, Getao & Yang, Jun & Li, Jun & Cheng, Xi & Feng, Chao, 2024. "National climate legislation and policymaking and energy security: International evidence," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 375(C).
    16. Nicolás Aguila & Joscha Wullweber, 2024. "Greener and cheaper: green monetary policy in the era of inflation and high interest rates," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 14(1), pages 39-60, March.
    17. Jianghong Xu & Wei Lu & Weixin Wang, 2024. "From “fragile smallholders” to “resilient smallholders”: measuring rural household resilience in China," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-14, December.
    18. Yue Wang & Donghe Quan & Weihong Zhu & Zhehao Lin & Ri Jin, 2023. "Habitat Quality Assessment under the Change of Vegetation Coverage in the Tumen River Cross-Border Basin," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-24, June.
    19. Pinyue Ouyang & Xiaowen Wu, 2023. "Analysis and Evaluation of the Service Capacity of a Waterfront Public Space Using Point-of-Interest Data Combined with Questionnaire Surveys," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-19, July.
    20. Ligang Wang & Dan Liu & Xinyi Wu & Xiaopu Zhang & Qiaoyang Liu & Weijiang Kong & Pingping Luo & Shengfu Yang, 2025. "Simulation Analysis of Land Use Change via the PLUS-GMOP Coupling Model," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-26, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:120:y:2024:i:8:d:10.1007_s11069-024-06519-y. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.