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The Conditional Probability of Foreclosure: An Empirical Analysis of Conventional Mortgage Loan Defaults

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  • Richard A. Phillips
  • James H. VanderHoff

Abstract

This paper analyzes the factors affecting the conditional probability that defaulted residential mortgage loans will foreclose. We analyze a large national sample of conventional loans, which have been in default at least once during the 1988 to 1994 period. For such loans, lenders and borrowers either individually or jointly make choices which lead to the following outcomes: (1) resumption of payments, (2) termination by prepayment, or (3) foreclosure. Our estimates of a logit model indicate that termination option values and local area economic and housing market conditions affect default resolution probabilities. Perhaps more importantly, simulations using the logit model indicate that the efficiency of the default resolution process may be substantially improved by legal and regulatory reforms. Copyright 2004 by the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association

Suggested Citation

  • Richard A. Phillips & James H. VanderHoff, 2004. "The Conditional Probability of Foreclosure: An Empirical Analysis of Conventional Mortgage Loan Defaults," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 32(4), pages 571-587, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:32:y:2004:i:4:p:571-587
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Anthony Pennington-Cross, 2010. "The Duration of Foreclosures in the Subprime Mortgage Market: A Competing Risks Model with Mixing," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 109-129, February.
    2. Bruce Gordon & Daniel Winkler, 2015. "Statutory Right of Redemption and the Selling Price of Foreclosed Houses," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 365-397, October.
    3. deRitis, Cristian & Kuo, Chionglong & Liang, Yongping, 2010. "Payment shock and mortgage performance," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 295-314, December.
    4. Hongfei Sun & Chenggang Zhou & Allen Head, 2016. "Default, Mortgage Standards, and Housing Liquidity," 2016 Meeting Papers 625, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Ioan Voicu & Marilyn Jacob & Kristopher Rengert & Irene Fang, 2012. "Subprime Loan Default Resolutions: Do They Vary Across Mortgage Products and Borrower Demographic Groups?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(4), pages 939-964, November.
    6. Dennis Capozza & Thomas Thomson, 2006. "Subprime Transitions: Lingering or Malingering in Default?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 241-258, November.
    7. Anthony Pennington-Cross & Souphala Chomsisengphet, 2007. "Subprime Refinancing: Equity Extraction and Mortgage Termination," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 35(2), pages 233-263, June.
    8. Gerardi, Kristopher & Lambie-Hanson, Lauren & Willen, Paul S., 2013. "Do borrower rights improve borrower outcomes? Evidence from the foreclosure process," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 1-17.
    9. Zhang, Yan, 2013. "Does loan renegotiation differ by securitization status? A transition probability study," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 513-527.
    10. Lawrence R. Cordell & Liang Geng & Laurie Goodman & Lidan Yang, 2013. "The cost of delay," Working Papers 13-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    11. Maximilian Schmeiser & Matthew Gross, 2016. "The Determinants of Subprime Mortgage Performance Following a Loan Modification," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 1-27, January.
    12. Goodman, Allen C. & Smith, Brent C., 2010. "Residential mortgage default: Theory works and so does policy," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 280-294, December.
    13. repec:jre:issued:v:39:n:2:2017:p:263_288 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Andrew Carswell, 2009. "Does Housing Counseling Change Consumer Financial Behaviors? Evidence from Philadelphia," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 30(4), pages 339-356, December.
    15. Kashian, Russell & Cebula, Richard & Cramer, Eric, 2014. "Foreclosures in an Exurb: Multiple Empirical Analyses through a Prism," MPRA Paper 55557, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. repec:kap:jrefec:v:55:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s11146-016-9585-9 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Jou, Jyh-Bang & Lee, Tan (Charlene), 2016. "How does statutory redemption affect a buyer's decision at the foreclosure sale?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 263-272.
    18. Been, Vicki & Weselcouch, Mary & Voicu, Ioan & Murff, Scott, 2013. "Determinants of the incidence of U.S. Mortgage Loan Modifications," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 3951-3973.
    19. Justin Benefield & Ronald Rutherford & Marcus Allen, 2012. "The Effects of Estate Sales of Residential Real Estate on Price and Marketing Time," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(4), pages 965-981, November.

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