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Mortgage loan securitization and relative loan performance

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  • John Krainer
  • Elizabeth Laderman

Abstract

We compare the ex ante observable risk characteristics and the default rates of securitized mortgage loans and mortgage loans retained by the original lender. We find that privately securitized loans tend to be riskier and to default at a faster rate than loans securitized with the GSEs and lender-retained loans. However, the differences in default rates across investor types are of secondary importance for explaining mortgage defaults compared to more conventional predictors, such as original loan-to-value ratios and the path for house prices. Privately securitized home mortgages have conditionally higher expected returns than retained loans, suggesting the presence of risk factors that are unobservable but nonetheless at least partially acknowledged by the market.

Suggested Citation

  • John Krainer & Elizabeth Laderman, 2009. "Mortgage loan securitization and relative loan performance," Working Paper Series 2009-22, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2009-22
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    Cited by:

    1. David M. Frankel & Yu Jin, 2015. "Securitization and Lending Competition," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(4), pages 1383-1408.
    2. Blackburn, McKinley L. & Vermilyea, Todd, 2012. "The prevalence and impact of misstated incomes on mortgage loan applications," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 151-168.
    3. Sruthi Davuluri & René García Franceschini & Christopher R. Knittel & Chikara Onda & Kelly Roache, 2019. "Machine Learning for Solar Accessibility: Implications for Low-Income Solar Expansion and Profitability," NBER Working Papers 26178, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Bubb, Ryan & Kaufman, Alex, 2014. "Securitization and moral hazard: Evidence from credit score cutoff rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-18.
    5. Ryan Bubb & Alex Kaufman, 2011. "Securitization and moral hazard: evidence from credit score cutoff rules," Public Policy Discussion Paper 11-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    6. Ugo Albertazzi & Ginette Eramo & Leonardo Gambacorta & Carmelo Salleo, 2011. "Securitization is not that evil after all," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 796, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    7. Adelino, Manuel & Scott Frame, W. & Gerardi, Kristopher, 2017. "The effect of large investors on asset quality: Evidence from subprime mortgage securities," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 34-51.
    8. Jin, Yu, 2012. "Essays on financial institutions and instability," ISU General Staff Papers 201201010800003361, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    9. Alper Kara & David Marques-Ibanez & Steven Ongena, 2015. "Securitization and Credit Quality," International Finance Discussion Papers 1148, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Robert Shimer, 2014. "Private Information in the Mortgage Market: Evidence and a Theory of Crises," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Sofía Bauducco & Lawrence Christiano & Claudio Raddatz (ed.),Macroeconomic and Financial Stability: challenges for Monetary Policy, edition 1, volume 19, chapter 4, pages 117-150, Central Bank of Chile.
    11. Manuel Adelino & Kristopher Gerardi & Paul Willen, 2014. "Identifying the Effect of Securitization on Foreclosure and Modification Rates Using Early Payment Defaults," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 49(3), pages 352-378, October.
    12. Ronel Elul, 2015. "Securitization and mortgage default," Working Papers 15-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    13. Kiff, John & Kisser, Michael, 2014. "A shot at regulating securitization," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 10(C), pages 32-49.
    14. Frederick T. Furlong & David Lang & Yelena Takhtamanova, 2014. "Mortgage Choice in the Housing Boom: Impacts of House Price Appreciation and Borrower Type," Working Paper Series 2014-5, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    15. Benjamin Hébert, 2018. "Moral Hazard and the Optimality of Debt," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(4), pages 2214-2252.
    16. Alex Kaufman, 2014. "The Influence of Fannie and Freddie on Mortgage Loan Terms," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 42(2), pages 472-496, June.
    17. Feng Dong & Yi Wen, 2017. "Flight to What? — Dissecting Liquidity Shortages in the Financial Crisis," Working Papers 2017-25, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    18. Deku, Solomon Y. & Kara, Alper & Marqués-Ibáñez, David, 2019. "Do reputable issuers provide better-quality securitizations?," Working Paper Series 2236, European Central Bank.
    19. W. Scott Frame, 2018. "Agency Conflicts In Residential Mortgage Securitization: What Does The Empirical Literature Tell Us?," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 41(2), pages 237-251, June.
    20. John Krainer & Elizabeth Laderman, 2011. "Prepayment and delinquency in the mortgage crisis period," Working Paper Series 2011-25, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    21. Sascha Tobias Wengerek & Benjamin Hippert & André Uhde, 2019. "Risk allocation through securitization - Evidence from non-performing loans," Working Papers Dissertations 58, Paderborn University, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics.
    22. Rodney Ramcharan & Amir Kermani & Marco Di Maggio, 2015. "Monetary Policy Pass-Through: Household Consumption and Voluntary Deleveraging," 2015 Meeting Papers 256, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    23. Andra Ghent & Rossen Valkanov, 2016. "Comparing Securitized and Balance Sheet Loans: Size Matters," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(10), pages 2784-2803, October.
    24. Deku, Solomon Y. & Kara, Alper & Zhou, Yifan, 2019. "Securitization, bank behaviour and financial stability: A systematic review of the recent empirical literature," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 245-254.
    25. Alex Kaufman, 2012. "The influence of Fannie and Freddie on mortgage loan terms," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-33, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mortgage loans;

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design

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