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Mortgage loan securitization and relative loan performance

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  • John Krainer
  • Elizabeth Laderman

Abstract

We compare the ex ante observable risk characteristics and the default rates of securitized mortgage loans and mortgage loans retained by the original lender. We find that privately securitized loans tend to be riskier and to default at a faster rate than loans securitized with the GSEs and lender-retained loans. However, the differences in default rates across investor types are of secondary importance for explaining mortgage defaults compared to more conventional predictors, such as original loan-to-value ratios and the path for house prices. Privately securitized home mortgages have conditionally higher expected returns than retained loans, suggesting the presence of risk factors that are unobservable but nonetheless at least partially acknowledged by the market.

Suggested Citation

  • John Krainer & Elizabeth Laderman, 2009. "Mortgage loan securitization and relative loan performance," Working Paper Series 2009-22, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2009-22
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. G. Dionne & T. M. Harchaoui, 2002. "Banks’ Capital, Securitization and Credit Risk : An Empirical Evidence for Canada," THEMA Working Papers 2002-33, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    2. Mark Carey, 1998. "Credit Risk in Private Debt Portfolios," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(4), pages 1363-1387, August.
    3. Benjamin J. Keys & Tanmoy Mukherjee & Amit Seru & Vikrant Vig, 2010. "Did Securitization Lead to Lax Screening? Evidence from Subprime Loans," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 125(1), pages 307-362.
    4. Brent Ambrose & Michael LaCour-Little & Anthony Sanders, 2005. "Does Regulatory Capital Arbitrage, Reputation, or Asymmetric Information Drive Securitization?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 28(1), pages 113-133, October.
    5. Ashcraft, Adam B. & Schuermann, Til, 2008. "Understanding the Securitization of Subprime Mortgage Credit," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 2(3), pages 191-309, June.
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