IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedbpp/11-6.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Securitization and moral hazard: evidence from credit score cutoff rules

Author

Listed:
  • Ryan Bubb
  • Alex Kaufman

Abstract

Mortgage originators use credit score cutoff rules to determine how carefully to screen loan applicants. Recent research has hypothesized that these cutoff rules result from a securitization rule of thumb. Under this theory, an observed jump in defaults at the cutoff would imply that securitization led to lax screening. We argue instead that originators adopted credit score cutoff rules in response to underwriting guidelines from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and offer a simple model that rationalizes such an origination rule of thumb. Under this alternative theory, jumps in default are not evidence that securitization caused lax screening. We examine loan-level data and find that the evidence is inconsistent with the securitization rule-of-thumb theory but consistent with the origination rule-of-thumb theory. There are jumps in the number of loans and in their default rate at credit score cutoffs in the absence of corresponding jumps in the securitization rate. We conclude that credit score cutoff rules provide evidence that large securitizers were to some extent able to regulate originators' screening behavior.

Suggested Citation

  • Ryan Bubb & Alex Kaufman, 2011. "Securitization and moral hazard: evidence from credit score cutoff rules," Public Policy Discussion Paper 11-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedbpp:11-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bostonfed.org/economic/ppdp/2011/ppdp1106.htm
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://www.bostonfed.org/economic/ppdp/2011/ppdp1106.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Poon, Martha, 2009. "From new deal institutions to capital markets: Commercial consumer risk scores and the making of subprime mortgage finance," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 654-674, July.
    2. Keys, Benjamin J. & Mukherjee, Tanmoy & Seru, Amit & Vig, Vikrant, 2009. "Financial regulation and securitization: Evidence from subprime loans," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(5), pages 700-720, July.
    3. Adelino, Manuel & Gerardi, Kristopher & Willen, Paul S., 2013. "Why don't Lenders renegotiate more home mortgages? Redefaults, self-cures and securitization," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(7), pages 835-853.
    4. Chris Downing & Dwight Jaffee, 2009. "Is the Market for Mortgage-Backed Securities a Market for Lemons?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(7), pages 2257-2294, July.
    5. Kristopher Gerardi & Adam Hale Shapiro & Paul S. Willen, 2007. "Subprime outcomes: risky mortgages, homeownership experiences, and foreclosures," Working Papers 07-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    6. Amir Sufi, 2007. "Information Asymmetry and Financing Arrangements: Evidence from Syndicated Loans," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(2), pages 629-668, April.
    7. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2009. "The Consequences of Mortgage Credit Expansion: Evidence from the U.S. Mortgage Default Crisis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(4), pages 1449-1496.
    8. repec:oup:rfinst:v:25:y::i:7:p:2071-2108 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Piskorski, Tomasz & Seru, Amit & Vig, Vikrant, 2010. "Securitization and distressed loan renegotiation: Evidence from the subprime mortgage crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(3), pages 369-397, September.
    10. Christopher Mayer & Karen Pence & Shane M. Sherlund, 2009. "The Rise in Mortgage Defaults," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 27-50, Winter.
    11. Martha Poon, 2009. "From New Deal institutions to capital markets: commercial consumer risk scores and the making of subprime mortgage finance," Post-Print halshs-00359712, HAL.
    12. Imbens, Guido W. & Lemieux, Thomas, 2008. "Regression discontinuity designs: A guide to practice," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 615-635, February.
    13. Ryan Bubb & Alex Kaufman, 2011. "Further investigations into the origin of credit score cutoff rules," Working Papers 11-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    14. repec:bla:jfinan:v:43:y:1988:i:2:p:375-96 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. John Krainer & Elizabeth Laderman, 2014. "Mortgage Loan Securitization and Relative Loan Performance," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 39-66, February.
    16. McCrary, Justin, 2008. "Manipulation of the running variable in the regression discontinuity design: A density test," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 698-714, February.
    17. Gorton, Gary B. & Pennacchi, George G., 1995. "Banks and loan sales Marketing nonmarketable assets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 389-411, June.
    18. Gary Gorton, 2009. "The Subprime Panic," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 15(1), pages 10-46, January.
    19. Benjamin J. Keys & Tanmoy Mukherjee & Amit Seru & Vikrant Vig, 2010. "Did Securitization Lead to Lax Screening? Evidence from Subprime Loans," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(1), pages 307-362.
    20. George A. Akerlof, 1970. "The Market for "Lemons": Quality Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 84(3), pages 488-500.
    21. Martha Poon, 2009. "From New Deal institutions to capital markets: commercial consumer risk scores and the making of subprime mortgage finance," Working Papers halshs-00359712, HAL.
    22. Martha Poon, 2009. "From New Deal institutions to capital markets: commercial consumer risk scores and the making of subprime mortgage finance," CSI Working Papers Series 014, Centre de Sociologie de l'Innovation (CSI), Mines ParisTech.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hoffmann, Mathias & Krause, Michael U. & Laubach, Thomas, 2012. "Trend growth expectations and U.S. house prices before and after the crisis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 394-409.
    2. Bhardwaj, Geetesh & Sengupta, Rajdeep, 2012. "Subprime mortgage design," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1503-1519.
    3. Albertazzi, Ugo & Eramo, Ginette & Gambacorta, Leonardo & Salleo, Carmelo, 2015. "Asymmetric information in securitization: An empirical assessment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 33-49.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ryan Bubb & Alex Kaufman, 2009. "Securitization and moral hazard: evidence from a lender cutoff rule," Public Policy Discussion Paper 09-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    2. Bubb, Ryan & Kaufman, Alex, 2014. "Securitization and moral hazard: Evidence from credit score cutoff rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-18.
    3. Agarwal, Sumit & Amromin, Gene & Ben-David, Itzhak & Chomsisengphet, Souphala & Evanoff, Douglas D., 2011. "The role of securitization in mortgage renegotiation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(3), pages 559-578.
    4. Agarwal, Sumit & Chang, Yan & Yavas, Abdullah, 2012. "Adverse selection in mortgage securitization," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(3), pages 640-660.
    5. W. Scott Frame, 2018. "Agency Conflicts In Residential Mortgage Securitization: What Does The Empirical Literature Tell Us?," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 41(2), pages 237-251, June.
    6. Gene Amromin & Jennifer Huang & Clemens Sialm & Edward Zhong, 2018. "Complex Mortgages [Why don’t lenders renegotiate more home mortgages? Redefaults, self-cures, and securitization]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 22(6), pages 1975-2007.
    7. Alper Kara & David Marques-Ibanez & Steven Ongena, 2015. "Securitization and Credit Quality," Working Papers 15013, Bangor Business School, Prifysgol Bangor University (Cymru / Wales).
    8. Eglė Jakučionytė & Swapnil Singh, 2023. "Emergence of subprime lending in minority neighborhoods," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 51(6), pages 1547-1583, November.
    9. Benjamin J. Keys & Tomasz Piskorski & Amit Seru & Vikrant Vig, 2012. "Mortgage Financing in the Housing Boom and Bust," NBER Chapters, in: Housing and the Financial Crisis, pages 143-204, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Yavas, Abdullah & Zhu, Shuang, 2024. "Private mortgage securitization and adverse selection—New evidence from expected loan losses," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    11. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W., 2010. "Unstable banking," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(3), pages 306-318, September.
    12. Patir, Assaf, 2017. "Securitization, bank vigilance, leverage and sudden stops," MPRA Paper 81463, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Ronel Elul, 2010. "What have we learned about mortgage default?," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q4, pages 12-19.
    14. Bhardwaj, Geetesh & Sengupta, Rajdeep, 2014. "Subprime cohorts and loan performance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 236-252.
    15. Sascha Tobias Wengerek & Benjamin Hippert & André Uhde, 2019. "Risk allocation through securitization - Evidence from non-performing loans," Working Papers Dissertations 58, Paderborn University, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics.
    16. Giovanni Favara & Mariassunta Giannetti, 2017. "Forced Asset Sales and the Concentration of Outstanding Debt: Evidence from the Mortgage Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(3), pages 1081-1118, June.
    17. Tomasz Piskorski & Amit Seru & James Witkin, 2015. "Asset Quality Misrepresentation by Financial Intermediaries: Evidence from the RMBS Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(6), pages 2635-2678, December.
    18. Wengerek, Sascha Tobias & Hippert, Benjamin & Uhde, André, 2022. "Risk allocation through securitization: Evidence from non-performing loans," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 48-64.
    19. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/6cbt691h0h8o9q5rf0apko0pda is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Kuong, John Chi-Fong & Zeng, Jing, 2021. "Securitization and optimal foreclosure," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    21. Pu Liu & Yingying Shao, 2013. "Small business loan securitization and interstate risk sharing," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 449-460, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mortgage loans; Credit scoring systems;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedbpp:11-6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Spozio (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbbous.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.