Subprime cohorts and loan performance
Loan performance of subprime originations during the boom years of 2004–2006 is contrasted with that of subprime originations during the early period of 2000–2002. A counterfactual technique is developed to determine how originations during the early period would perform in a different environment, namely, the environment faced by originations of 2004, 2005, and 2006. In an environment where house prices are increasing rapidly, low credit score originations do not show high rates of default—as was witnessed for 2000–2002 cohorts. However, in an environment of stagnant or deteriorating home prices, low credit score originations show significantly higher rates of default than high credit score originations. With a greater proportion of low credit score originations, earlier cohorts of 2000–2002 were no less vulnerable to the environment faced by cohorts of 2004–2006. In essence, these results raise concerns about the viability of all cohorts of subprime originations because of their reliance on the appreciation of the underlying collateral rather than the creditworthiness of the borrower.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2009. "The Consequences of Mortgage Credit Expansion: Evidence from the U.S. Mortgage Default Crisis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 124(4), pages 1449-1496.
- John Karikari & Ioan Voicu & Irene Fang, 2011. "FHA vs. Subprime Mortgage Originations: Is FHA the Answer to Subprime Lending?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 43(4), pages 441-458, November.
- Christopher J. Mayer & Karen M. Pence & Shane M. Sherlund, 2008.
"The rise in mortgage defaults,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
2008-59, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Rothschild, Michael & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 1970. "Increasing risk: I. A definition," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 225-243, September.
- Glaeser, Edward & Saiz, Albert & Gyourko, Joseph, 2008.
"Housing Supply and Housing Bubbles,"
2962640, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Geetesh Bhardwaj & Rajdeep Sengupta, 2011. "Credit scoring and loan default," Working Papers 2011-040, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Anthony Pennington-Cross & Giang Ho, 2006.
"The termination of subprime hybrid and fixed rate mortgages,"
2006-042, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Anthony Pennington-Cross & Giang Ho, 2010. "The Termination of Subprime Hybrid and Fixed-Rate Mortgages," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 38(3), pages 399-426.
- Anderson, Gordon, 1996. "Nonparametric Tests of Stochastic Dominance in Income Distributions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(5), pages 1183-93, September.
- Gary B. Gorton, 2008.
"The Panic of 2007,"
NBER Working Papers
14358, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Atif R. Mian & Amir Sufi, 2009.
"House Prices, Home Equity-Based Borrowing, and the U.S. Household Leverage Crisis,"
NBER Working Papers
15283, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2011. "House Prices, Home Equity-Based Borrowing, and the US Household Leverage Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 2132-56, August.
- Agarwal, Sumit & Amromin, Gene & Ben-David, Itzhak & Chomsisengphet, Souphala & Evanoff, Douglas D., 2011.
"The Role of Securitization in Mortgage Renegotiation,"
Working Paper Series
2011-2, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
- Agarwal, Sumit & Amromin, Gene & Ben-David, Itzhak & Chomsisengphet, Souphala & Evanoff, Douglas D., 2011. "The role of securitization in mortgage renegotiation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(3), pages 559-578.
- Sumit Agarwal & Eugene Amromin & Itzhak Ben-David & Souphala Chomsisengphet & Douglas D. Evanoff, 2011. "The role of securitization in mortgage renegotiation," Working Paper Series WP-2011-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Fernando Ferreira & Joseph Gyourko & Joseph Tracy, 2008.
"Housing busts and household mobility,"
350, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Marsha J. Courchane & Brian J. Surette & Peter M. Zorn, 2004. "Subprime Borrowers: Mortgage Transitions and Outcomes," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 29(4), pages 365-392, December.
- Andrew F. Haughwout & Richard Peach & Joseph Tracy, 2008.
"Juvenile delinquent mortgages: bad credit or bad economy?,"
341, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Haughwout, Andrew & Peach, Richard & Tracy, Joseph, 2008. "Juvenile delinquent mortgages: Bad credit or bad economy?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 246-257, September.
- James J. Heckman & Vytlacil, Edward J., 2007. "Econometric Evaluation of Social Programs, Part I: Causal Models, Structural Models and Econometric Policy Evaluation," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 6, chapter 70 Elsevier.
- Eric A. Posner & Luigi Zingales, 2009. "A Loan Modification Approach to the Housing Crisis," American Law and Economics Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 11(2), pages 575-607.
- Ambrose, Brent W & Sanders, Anthony B, 2003. "Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities: Prepayment and Default," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 26(2-3), pages 179-96, March-May.
- Summers, Lawrence H, 1985. " On Economics and Finance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 633-35, July.
- Benjamin J. Keys & Tanmoy Mukherjee & Amit Seru & Vikrant Vig, 2010. "Did Securitization Lead to Lax Screening? Evidence from Subprime Loans," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 125(1), pages 307-362.
- Piskorski, Tomasz & Seru, Amit & Vig, Vikrant, 2010.
"Securitization and distressed loan renegotiation: Evidence from the subprime mortgage crisis,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 97(3), pages 369-397, September.
- Vikrant Vig & Amit Seru & Tomasz Piskorski, 2009. "Securitization and Distressed Loan Renegotiation: Evidence from the Subprime Mortgage Crisis," 2009 Meeting Papers 1169, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Souphala Chomsisengphet & Anthony Pennington-Cross, 2006.
"Subprime refinancing: equity extraction and mortgage termination,"
2006-023, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Anthony Pennington-Cross & Souphala Chomsisengphet, 2007. "Subprime Refinancing: Equity Extraction and Mortgage Termination," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 35(2), pages 233-263, 06.
- Brent Ambrose & Michael LaCour-Little & Anthony Sanders, 2005. "Does Regulatory Capital Arbitrage, Reputation, or Asymmetric Information Drive Securitization?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 28(1), pages 113-133, October.
- Donghoon Lee & Wilbert Van der Klaauw, 2010. "An introduction to the FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel," Staff Reports 479, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Edward L. Glaeser & Joshua D. Gottlieb & Joseph Gyourko, 2010.
"Can Cheap Credit Explain the Housing Boom?,"
NBER Working Papers
16230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Souphala Chomsisengphet & Anthony Pennington-Cross, 2006. "The evolution of the subprime mortgage market," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 31-56.
- Gorton, Gary B., 2008. "The panic of 2007," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 131-262.
- N. Lesca, 2010. "Introduction," Post-Print halshs-00640602, HAL.
- repec:aei:rpaper:26094 is not listed on IDEAS
- Cameron,A. Colin & Trivedi,Pravin K., 2005. "Microeconometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521848053, December.
- Pennington-Cross, Anthony, 2003. "Credit History and the Performance of Prime and Nonprime Mortgages," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 279-301, November.
- Ryan Bubb & Alex Kaufman, 2011. "Further investigations into the origin of credit score cutoff rules," Working Papers 11-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:41:y:2014:i:c:p:236-252. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.