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Subprime cohorts and loan performance

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  • Bhardwaj, Geetesh
  • Sengupta, Rajdeep

Abstract

Loan performance of subprime originations during the boom years of 2004–2006 is contrasted with that of subprime originations during the early period of 2000–2002. A counterfactual technique is developed to determine how originations during the early period would perform in a different environment, namely, the environment faced by originations of 2004, 2005, and 2006. In an environment where house prices are increasing rapidly, low credit score originations do not show high rates of default—as was witnessed for 2000–2002 cohorts. However, in an environment of stagnant or deteriorating home prices, low credit score originations show significantly higher rates of default than high credit score originations. With a greater proportion of low credit score originations, earlier cohorts of 2000–2002 were no less vulnerable to the environment faced by cohorts of 2004–2006. In essence, these results raise concerns about the viability of all cohorts of subprime originations because of their reliance on the appreciation of the underlying collateral rather than the creditworthiness of the borrower.

Suggested Citation

  • Bhardwaj, Geetesh & Sengupta, Rajdeep, 2014. "Subprime cohorts and loan performance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 236-252.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:41:y:2014:i:c:p:236-252
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2013.11.037
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Rajdeep Sengupta & Geetesh Bhardwaj, 2015. "Credit Scoring and Loan Default," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 15(2), pages 139-167, June.
    2. Fernando Ferreira & Joseph Gyourko, 2015. "A New Look at the U.S. Foreclosure Crisis: Panel Data Evidence of Prime and Subprime Borrowers from 1997 to 2012," NBER Working Papers 21261, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Sengupta, Rajdeep & Bhardwaj, Geetesh, 2015. "Credit scoring and loan default," Research Working Paper RWP 15-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mortgages; Subprime; Loan quality; Crisis;

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies

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