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Credit scoring and loan default

  • Geetesh Bhardwaj
  • Rajdeep Sengupta

This paper introduces a measure of credit score performance that abstracts from the influence of “situational factors.” Using this measure, we study the role and effectiveness of credit scoring that underlied subprime securities during the mortgage boom of 2000-2006. Parametric and nonparametric measures of credit score performance reveal different trends, especially on originations with low credit scores. The paper demonstrates an increasing trend of reliance on credit scoring not only as a measure of credit risk but also as a means to offset other riskier attributes of the origination. This reliance led to deterioration in loan performance even though average credit quality—as measured in terms of credit scores— actually improved over the years.

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File URL: http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2011/2011-040.pdf
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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 2011-040.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2011-040
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  1. Foote, Christopher L. & Gerardi, Kristopher & Goette, Lorenz & Willen, Paul S., 2008. "Just the facts: An initial analysis of subprime's role in the housing crisis," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 291-305, December.
  2. Pennington-Cross, Anthony, 2003. "Credit History and the Performance of Prime and Nonprime Mortgages," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 279-301, November.
  3. Brown, Martin & Jappelli, Tullio & Pagano, Marco, 2008. "Information Sharing and Credit: Firm-Level Evidence from Transition Countries," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Zurich 2008 3, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
  4. Bennardo, Alberto & Pagano, Marco & Piccolo, Salvatore, 2009. "Multiple-Bank Lending, Creditor Rights and Information Sharing," CEPR Discussion Papers 7186, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Benjamin J. Keys & Tanmoy Mukherjee & Amit Seru & Vikrant Vig, 2010. "Did Securitization Lead to Lax Screening? Evidence from Subprime Loans," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 125(1), pages 307-362, February.
  6. Donghoon Lee & Wilbert van der Klaauw, 2010. "An introduction to the FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel," Staff Reports 479, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
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