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Credit scoring and loan default

Author

Listed:
  • Geetesh Bhardwaj
  • Rajdeep Sengupta

Abstract

This paper introduces a measure of credit score performance that abstracts from the influence of ?situational factors.? Using this measure, we study the role and effectiveness of credit scoring that underlied subprime securities during the mortgage boom of 2000-2006. Parametric and nonparametric measures of credit score performance reveal different trends, especially on originations with low credit scores. The paper demonstrates an increasing trend of reliance on credit scoring not only as a measure of credit risk but also as a means to offset other riskier attributes of the origination. This reliance led to deterioration in loan performance even though average credit quality?as measured in terms of credit scores? actually improved over the years.

Suggested Citation

  • Geetesh Bhardwaj & Rajdeep Sengupta, 2011. "Credit scoring and loan default," Working Papers 2011-040, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2011-040
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Berger, Allen N & Frame, W Scott & Miller, Nathan H, 2005. "Credit Scoring and the Availability, Price, and Risk of Small Business Credit," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(2), pages 191-222, April.
    2. Foote, Christopher L. & Gerardi, Kristopher & Goette, Lorenz & Willen, Paul S., 2008. "Just the facts: An initial analysis of subprime's role in the housing crisis," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 291-305, December.
    3. Bhardwaj, Geetesh & Sengupta, Rajdeep, 2014. "Subprime cohorts and loan performance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 236-252.
    4. Brown, Martin & Jappelli, Tullio & Pagano, Marco, 2009. "Information sharing and credit: Firm-level evidence from transition countries," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 151-172, April.
    5. Rajdeep Sengupta, 2010. "Alt-A: the forgotten segment of the mortgage market," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 92(Jan), pages 55-72.
    6. Alberto Bennardo & Marco Pagano & Salvatore Piccolo, 2015. "Multiple Bank Lending, Creditor Rights, and Information Sharing," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 19(2), pages 519-570.
    7. Christopher Mayer & Karen Pence & Shane M. Sherlund, 2009. "The Rise in Mortgage Defaults," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 27-50, Winter.
    8. Anthony Pennington‐Cross & Giang Ho, 2010. "The Termination of Subprime Hybrid and Fixed‐Rate Mortgages," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 38(3), pages 399-426, September.
    9. Jeremy C. Stein, 2002. "Information Production and Capital Allocation: Decentralized versus Hierarchical Firms," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 1891-1921, October.
    10. Robert B. Avery & Paul S. Calem & Glenn B. Canner, 2003. "An overview of consumer data and credit reporting," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Feb, pages 47-73.
    11. Pennington-Cross, Anthony, 2003. "Credit History and the Performance of Prime and Nonprime Mortgages," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 279-301, November.
    12. Benjamin J. Keys & Tanmoy Mukherjee & Amit Seru & Vikrant Vig, 2010. "Did Securitization Lead to Lax Screening? Evidence from Subprime Loans," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 125(1), pages 307-362.
    13. Robert B. Avery & Raphael W. Bostic & Paul S. Calem & Glenn B. Canner, 2000. "Credit Scoring: Statistical Issues and Evidence from Credit-Bureau Files," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 28(3), pages 523-547.
    14. Donghoon Lee & Wilbert Van der Klaauw, 2010. "An introduction to the FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel," Staff Reports 479, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    15. Bhardwaj, Geetesh & Sengupta, Rajdeep, 2012. "Subprime mortgage design," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1503-1519.
    16. Ashcraft, Adam B. & Schuermann, Til, 2008. "Understanding the Securitization of Subprime Mortgage Credit," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 2(3), pages 191-309, June.
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    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Why more bad mortgages? Too much reliance on credit scores
      by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2011-12-01 21:29:00

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. David Pla-Santamaria & Mila Bravo & Javier Reig-Mullor & Francisco Salas-Molina, 0. "A multicriteria approach to manage credit risk under strict uncertainty," TOP: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 0, pages 1-30.
    2. Byrne, David & Kelly, Robert & O'Toole, Conor, 2017. "How does monetary policy pass-through affect mortgage default? Evidence from the Irish mortgage market," Research Technical Papers 04/RT/17, Central Bank of Ireland.
    3. Joanna Stavins, 2020. "Credit Card Debt and Consumer Payment Choice: What Can We Learn from Credit Bureau Data?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 59-90, August.
    4. Bhardwaj, Geetesh & Sengupta, Rajdeep, 2014. "Subprime cohorts and loan performance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 236-252.
    5. Lkhagvadorj Munkhdalai & Tsendsuren Munkhdalai & Oyun-Erdene Namsrai & Jong Yun Lee & Keun Ho Ryu, 2019. "An Empirical Comparison of Machine-Learning Methods on Bank Client Credit Assessments," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 11(3), pages 1-23, January.
    6. Yushu Zhu, 2017. "Call it good, bad or no news? The valuation effect of debt issues," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 57(4), pages 1203-1229, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit scoring systems; Mortgage loans;

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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