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Spillover Effects of Foreclosures on Neighborhood Property Values

  • Zhenguo Lin


  • Eric Rosenblatt


  • Vincent Yao


Previous studies have shown that foreclosure often results in vandalism, disinvestment and other negative spillover effects in the neighborhood. This paper extends these views into a formal theoretical model through pricing based on comparables. We project that the spillover effect of a foreclosure on neighborhood property values depends on two factors: the discount of foreclosure sale and the weight placed on the foreclosed property as a comparable in the valuation. The former is related to housing cycle and the latter varies by time of foreclosure and its distance from the subject property. Empirical results based on a 2006 sample show that this effect is significant within a radius of 0.9 km (roughly 10 blocks) and within 5 years from its liquidation. The most severe impact is an 8.7% discount on neighborhood property values, which gradually drops to anywhere between −1.2 to −1.7% for foreclosures liquidated within the past 5 years. These spillover effects vary slightly when the sample selection bias is taken into account. Based on an alternative sample of purchase transactions in 2003, the estimated spillover effects in booming years are reduced by half, confirming on the important role played by housing cycles. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2009

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Article provided by Springer in its journal The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics.

Volume (Year): 38 (2009)
Issue (Month): 4 (May)
Pages: 387-407

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Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:38:y:2009:i:4:p:387-407
DOI: 10.1007/s11146-007-9093-z
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  1. Zhenguo Lin & Kerry D. Vandell, 2006. "Illiquidity and Pricing Biases in the Real Estate Market," Working Paper 8577, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
  2. Deng, Yongheng & Quigley, John M. & Van Order, Robert, 1999. "Mortgage Terminations, Heterogeneity, and the Exercise of Mortgage Options," Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy, Working Paper Series qt96r560pg, Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy.
  3. Kelvin J. Lancaster, 1966. "A New Approach to Consumer Theory," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74, pages 132.
  4. Fred A. Forgey & Ronald C. Rutherford & Michael L. VanBuskirk, 1994. "Effect of Foreclosure Status on Residential Selling Price," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 9(3), pages 313-318.
  5. Heckman, James J, 1979. "Sample Selection Bias as a Specification Error," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(1), pages 153-61, January.
  6. William G. Hardin, III & Marvin L. Wolverton, 1996. "The Relationship between Foreclosure Status and Apartment Price," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 12(1), pages 101-109.
  7. Yongheng Deng & Andrey D. Pavlov & Lihong Yang, 2004. "Spatial Heterogeneity in Mortgage Terminations by Refinance, Sale and Default," Working Paper 8602, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
  8. Rosen, Sherwin, 1974. "Hedonic Prices and Implicit Markets: Product Differentiation in Pure Competition," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(1), pages 34-55, Jan.-Feb..
  9. Kerry D. Vandell, 1991. "Optimal Comparable Selection and Weighting in Real Property Valuation," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 19(2), pages 213-239.
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