IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/ormnsc/v38y1992i11p1665-1685.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Complete Prepayment Models for Mortgage-Backed Securities

Author

Listed:
  • Pan Kang

    (HERMES Lab for Financial Modeling and Simulation, Decision Sciences Department, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19104)

  • Stavros A. Zenios

    (HERMES Lab for Financial Modeling and Simulation, Decision Sciences Department, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19104)

Abstract

The estimation of prepayment rates for pools of mortgages is a critical component in determining the value of mortgage-backed securities---MBS for short---and derivative products. This paper discusses the development of prepayment models for pools of fixed-rate mortgages. The models are complete: calibrated functional forms are given for all of the factors that determine prepayment rates. Hence, the models can be used as benchmarks against the simple models of the Public Securities Association, the Federal Housing Administration experience, or the variety of projected prepayment rates generated by proprietary industry models. The key factors that determine prepayment rates are: (1) refinancing incentive, (2) seasonal variations, (3) seasoning of the mortgage pool, and (4) burnout effect. Each factor is modeled separately and is calibrated using historical data. A multiplicative relationship determines the prepayment rate of the mortgage pool. A novel feature of our model is the use of basis functions that capture the complex interactions between the control variables, i.e., interest rate differentials and time, and the response parameter, i.e., prepayment rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Pan Kang & Stavros A. Zenios, 1992. "Complete Prepayment Models for Mortgage-Backed Securities," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 38(11), pages 1665-1685, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:38:y:1992:i:11:p:1665-1685
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.38.11.1665
    Download Restriction: no

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. S. Nielsen, Soren & Poulsen, Rolf, 2004. "A two-factor, stochastic programming model of Danish mortgage-backed securities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 1267-1289, April.
    2. Michael LaCour-Little & Gregory H. Chun, 1999. "Third Party Originators and Mortgage Prepayment Risk: An Agency Problem?," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 17(1), pages 55-70.
    3. Charlier, E. & van Bussel, A., 2001. "Prepayment Behavior of Dutch Mortgagors : An Empirical Analysis," Discussion Paper 2001-64, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    4. Consiglio, Andrea & Zenios, Stavros A., 1997. "A model for designing callable bonds and its solution using tabu search," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(8-9), pages 1445-1470, June.
    5. Zenios, Stavros A. & Holmer, Martin R. & McKendall, Raymond & Vassiadou-Zeniou, Christiana, 1998. "Dynamic models for fixed-income portfolio management under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(10), pages 1517-1541, August.
    6. L. Smith & Baiqiang Jin, 2007. "Modeling exposure to losses on automobile leases," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 241-266, October.
    7. Golub, Bennett & Holmer, Martin & McKendall, Raymond & Pohlman, Lawrence & Zenios, Stavros A., 1995. "A stochastic programming model for money management," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 282-296, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:38:y:1992:i:11:p:1665-1685. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mirko Janc). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.