IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/gmf/wpaper/2012-20.html

Macroeconomic Factors of Household Default. Is There Myopic Behaviour?

Author

Listed:
  • Rui Pascoal

    (Faculty of Economics University of Coimbra)

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to study the family financial distress in Portugal, using quarterly observations, in a period from 2002 to 2010, by analysing the macroeconomic determinants of the Household Default rate, for which we take a logit transformation. Ordinary least squares are used. The default determinants considered are Euribor rate, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (gdpgr) and unemployment rate. The distinctive feature of this paper is the decomposition of gdpgr in a short term and a long term components and the substitution of gdpgr for its long term component as a regressor which improves the adjustment of the regression. The signs of the coefficients are the ones expected according to economic theory, except for Euribor rate, which may be due to its pro-cyclical behaviour with respect to economic activity. Taking into account the distinct characterization with respect to stationarity of the different variables, the estimation of the relation between household default rate and its factors has to be done in two stages: first a regression on the integrated variables, and then a regression of the residuals of the first regression on the stationary variables. It is detected a more pronounced effect of the long term component of gdpgr and a perverse influence (although it may be spurious) of the short term component of gdpgr on default, which, jointly, suggests the existence of myopic behaviour by the families. It is analysed the joint evolution of these variables to detect possible interactions between them. Namely, the paradoxical role of Euribor rate is explained by its correlation with the other regressors.

Suggested Citation

  • Rui Pascoal, 2012. "Macroeconomic Factors of Household Default. Is There Myopic Behaviour?," GEMF Working Papers 2012-20, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    • Handle: RePEc:gmf:wpaper:2012-20
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a
    for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:bla:kyklos:v:45:y:1992:i:3:p:327-45 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. John Campbell & Angus Deaton, 1989. "Why is Consumption So Smooth?," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 56(3), pages 357-373.
    3. Gary S. Becker, 1992. "Habits, Addictions, and Traditions," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(3), pages 327-345, August.
    4. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    5. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    6. Jos� BELBUTE & Ant�nio CALEIRO, 2009. "Measuring Persistence On Consumption In Portugal," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 4(2(8)_ Sum).
    7. Marcucci, Juri & Quagliariello, Mario, 2008. "Is bank portfolio riskiness procyclical: Evidence from Italy using a vector autoregression," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 46-63, February.
    8. Jim Wong & Ka-Fai Choi & Tom Pak-Wing Fong, 2008. "A Framework for Stress Testing Banks’ Credit Risk," Palgrave Macmillan Studies in Banking and Financial Institutions, in: Hans Genberg & Cho-Hoi Hui (ed.), The Banking Sector in Hong Kong, chapter 11, pages 240-260, Palgrave Macmillan.
    9. Goodman, Allen C. & Smith, Brent C., 2010. "Residential mortgage default: Theory works and so does policy," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 280-294, December.
    10. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    11. Tan, Hui Boon & Ashley, Richard, 1999. "Detection And Modeling Of Regression Parameter Variation Across Frequencies," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(1), pages 69-83, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Isabel Cortés-Jiménez & Manuel Artís, 2005. "The role of the tourism sector in economic development - Lessons from the Spanish experience," ERSA conference papers ersa05p488, European Regional Science Association.
    2. Francis Ahking, 2003. "Efficient unit root tests of real exchange rates in the post-Bretton Woods era," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 6(7), pages 1-12.
    3. Claude Diebolt & Cédric Doliger, 2005. "Becker vs. Easterlin. Education, Fertility and Growth in France after World War II," Working Papers 05-03, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    4. Singh, Tarlok, 2014. "On the regime-switching and asymmetric dynamics of economic growth in the OECD countries," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 169-192.
    5. Nielsen, Morten, 2008. "A Powerful Tuning Parameter Free Test of the Autoregressive Unit Root Hypothesis," Working Papers 08-05, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics.
    6. Uddin, Gazi Salah & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Arouri, Mohamed & Teulon, Frédéric, 2014. "Financial development and poverty reduction nexus: A cointegration and causality analysis in Bangladesh," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 405-412.
    7. Simo-Kengne, Beatrice D. & Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Reid, Monique & Aye, Goodness C., 2013. "Is the relationship between monetary policy and house prices asymmetric across bull and bear markets in South Africa? Evidence from a Markov-switching vector autoregressive model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 161-171.
    8. Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard, 2009. "A Powerful Test Of The Autoregressive Unit Root Hypothesis Based On A Tuning Parameter Free Statistic," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(6), pages 1515-1544, December.
    9. Tung Liu & Lee C. Spector, 2005. "Dynamic employment adjustments over business cycles," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 151-169, January.
    10. Singh, Tarlok, 2010. "Does domestic saving cause economic growth? A time-series evidence from India," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 231-253, March.
    11. Kyritsis, Evangelos & Andersson, Jonas & Serletis, Apostolos, 2017. "Electricity prices, large-scale renewable integration, and policy implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 550-560.
    12. Trofimov, Ivan D., 2018. "The secular decline in profit rates: time series analysis of a classical hypothesis," MPRA Paper 88248, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Marcin Humanicki & Robert Kelm & Krzysztof Olszewski, 2013. "Foreign Direct Investment and Foreign Portfolio Investment in the contemporary globalized world: should they be still treated separately?," NBP Working Papers 167, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    14. Lin, Yingqian & Tu, Yundong, 2020. "Robust inference for spurious regressions and cointegrations involving processes moderately deviated from a unit root," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 219(1), pages 52-65.
    15. Muhammad, Anees & Ishfaq, Ahmed, 2011. "Industrial development, agricultural growth, urbanization and environmental Kuznets curve in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 33469, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Gabauer, David & Gupta, Rangan, 2020. "Spillovers across macroeconomic, financial and real estate uncertainties: A time-varying approach," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 167-173.
    17. Belbute, José Manuel, 2013. "Is the Euro-Area core price index really more persistent than the food and energy price indexes?," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(4), pages 307-315.
    18. Zisimos Koustas & Jean-Francois Lamarche, 2005. "Policy-Induced Mean Reversion in the Real Interest Rate?," Working Papers 0503, Brock University, Department of Economics, revised Jul 2005.
    19. Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer & Guangdong Zuo, 2017. "Volatility Spillovers and Causality of Carbon Emissions, Oil and Coal Spot and Futures for the EU and USA," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-22, October.
    20. Li, Xin & Umar, Muhammad & Zhu, Cun-Bin & Oprean-Stan, Camelia, 2023. "Can geopolitical risk stably predict crude oil prices? A multi-dimensional perspective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gmf:wpaper:2012-20. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sofia Antunes (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cebucpt.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.