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Estimating the House Foreclosure Discount Corrected for Spatial Price Interdependence and Endogeneity of Marketing Time

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  • Terrence M. Clauretie
  • Nasser Daneshvary

Abstract

Most previous empirical research estimates a greater than 20% discount associated with the sale of foreclosed properties. Under the assumption that the real estate market is somewhat efficient, such a large discount would be counterintuitive. We argue, and empirically show, that the estimated foreclosure coefficients in most of the previous research are upward biased because they do not control for variables such as the physical condition of the property and the relationship between marketing time and price. Accounting for these factors and correcting for two types of spatial price interdependence, our results show that estimates of foreclosure discount reported by previous studies are about one-third higher than the true discount caused by foreclosure "per se". Copyright (c) 2009 American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association.

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  • Terrence M. Clauretie & Nasser Daneshvary, 2009. "Estimating the House Foreclosure Discount Corrected for Spatial Price Interdependence and Endogeneity of Marketing Time," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 37(1), pages 43-67.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:37:y:2009:i:1:p:43-67
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    Cited by:

    1. Gerardi, Kristopher & Rosenblatt, Eric & Willen, Paul S. & Yao, Vincent, 2015. "Foreclosure externalities: New evidence," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 42-56.
    2. Lambie-Hanson, Lauren, 2015. "When does delinquency result in neglect? Mortgage distress and property maintenance," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 1-16.
    3. Jeremy R. Groves & William H. Rogers, 2011. "Effectiveness of RCA Institutions to Limit Local Externalities: Using Foreclosure Data to Test Covenant Effectiveness," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 87(4), pages 559-581.
    4. Paul Carrillo, 2013. "Testing for Fraud in the Residential Mortgage Market: How Much Did Early-Payment-Defaults Overpay for Housing?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 36-64, July.
    5. Aizenman, Joshua, 2011. "Hoarding international reserves versus a Pigovian tax-cum-subsidy scheme: Reflections on the deleveraging crisis of 2008-2009, and a cost benefit analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 1502-1513, September.
    6. Peter Chinloy & William Hardin & Zhonghua Wu, 2017. "Foreclosure, REO, and Market Sales in Residential Real Estate," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 188-215, February.
    7. Ramya Aroul & J. Hansz, 2014. "The Valuation Impact on Distressed Residential Transactions: Anatomy of a Housing Price Bubble," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 277-302, August.
    8. Donner, Herman & Song, Han-Suck & Wilhelmsson, Mats, 2016. "Forced sales and their impact on real estate prices," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 60-68.
    9. Adam M. Guren & Timothy J. McQuade, "undated". "How Do Foreclosures Exacerbate Housing Downturns?," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2018-007, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    10. Donner, Herman, 2017. "Determinants of a Foreclosure Discount," Working Paper Series 17/2, Royal Institute of Technology, Department of Real Estate and Construction Management & Centre for Banking and Finance (cefin).
    11. Cohen, Jeffrey P. & Coughlin, Cletus C. & Yao, Vincent W., 2016. "Sales of Distressed Residential Property: What Have We Learned from Recent Research?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 98(3), pages 159-188.
    12. Kristopher S. Gerardi & Eric Rosenblatt & Paul S. Willen & Vincent W. Yao, 2012. "Foreclosure externalities: some new evidence," Public Policy Discussion Paper 12-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    13. Patrick S. Smith & Karen M. Gibler & Velma Zahirovic-Herbert, 2016. "The Effect of Relisting on House Selling Price," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 52(2), pages 176-195, February.
    14. repec:kap:jrefec:v:56:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s11146-016-9591-y is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Hanqing Zhou & Yuan Yuan & Christopher Lako & Michael Sklarz & Charles McKinney, 2015. "Foreclosure Discount: Definition and Dynamic Patterns," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 43(3), pages 683-718, September.
    16. Anthony Yezer & Yishen Liu, 2017. "Can Differences Deceive? The Case of “Foreclosure Externalities"," Working Papers 2017-29, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    17. Cohen, Jeffrey P. & Coughlin, Cletus C. & Lopez, David A., 2012. "The boom and bust of U.S. housing prices from various geographic perspectives," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 341-368.
    18. Peter-Hendrik Ingermann & Frederik Hesse & Christian Bélorgey & Andreas Pfingsten, 2016. "The recovery rate for retail and commercial customers in Germany: a look at collateral and its adjusted market values," Business Research, Springer;German Academic Association for Business Research, vol. 9(2), pages 179-228, August.
    19. Justin Benefield & Ronald Rutherford & Marcus Allen, 2012. "The Effects of Estate Sales of Residential Real Estate on Price and Marketing Time," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(4), pages 965-981, November.
    20. Harding, John P. & Rosenblatt, Eric & Yao, Vincent W., 2012. "The foreclosure discount: Myth or reality?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 204-218.
    21. Nasser Daneshvary & Terrence Clauretie, 2013. "Agent Change and Seller Bargaining Power: A Case of Principal Agent Problem in the Housing Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(3), pages 416-433, October.

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