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Effect of Foreclosure Status on Residential Selling Price: Comment

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Abstract

In this comment we examine the conclusion by Forgey, Rutherford, and VanBuskirk (1994) "that the foreclosed properties sold at a 23% discount," using a sample of nearly 2,000 residential property sales from the Las Vegas, Nevada area. We found that when not controlling for location with a set of dummy variables for ZIP codes, HUD foreclosed properties sold for between 12.18% and 13.96% below a random sample of properties not within one block of foreclosed properties. When controlling for location, using a set of thirty-one dummy variables for ZIP codes, the foreclosure discount fell to between 8.45% and 9.72%. When controlling for the common characteristics between foreclosed properties and their neighbors, we found foreclosure discounts are very small (between 0.17% and 2.48%) and no longer statistically significant. We conclude that foreclosure does not provide an opportunity for arbitrage profits, and this study does reinforce the findings of other studies that conclude real estate markets operate efficiently.

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  • Thomas M. Carroll & Terrence M. Clauretie & Helen R. Neill, 1997. "Effect of Foreclosure Status on Residential Selling Price: Comment," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 13(1), pages 95-102.
    • Handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:13:n:1:1997:p:95-102
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    1. James D. Shilling & John D. Benjamin & C.F. Sirmans, 1990. "Estimating Net Realizable Value for Distressed Real Estate," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 5(1), pages 129-140.
    2. Fred A. Forgey & Ronald C. Rutherford & Michael L. VanBuskirk, 1994. "Effect of Foreclosure Status on Residential Selling Price," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 9(3), pages 313-318.
    3. George W. Gau, 1985. "Public Information and Abnormal Returns in Real Estate Investment," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 13(1), pages 15-31, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Shu Ling Chiang & Ming Shann Tsai & Shan Jiang, 2021. "The Influences of Foreclosure Factors on the Value, Yield, Duration and Convexity of a Mortgage," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 49(S2), pages 361-394, September.
    2. Jeremy R. Groves & William H. Rogers, 2011. "Effectiveness of RCA Institutions to Limit Local Externalities: Using Foreclosure Data to Test Covenant Effectiveness," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 87(4), pages 559-581.
    3. Marcus T. Allen & Justin D. Benefield & Christopher L. Cain & Norman Maynard, 2024. "Distressed Property Sales: Differences and Similarities Across Types of Distress," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 68(2), pages 318-353, February.
    4. Anthony Pennington-Cross, 2006. "The Value of Foreclosed Property," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 28(2), pages 193-214.
    5. William G. Hardin, III & Marvin L. Wolverton, 1999. "Equity REIT Property Acquisitions: Do Apartment REITs Pay a Premium?," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 17(1), pages 113-126.
    6. Peter Chinloy & William Hardin & Zhonghua Wu, 2017. "Foreclosure, REO, and Market Sales in Residential Real Estate," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 188-215, February.
    7. Donner, Herman & Song, Han-Suck & Wilhelmsson, Mats, 2016. "Forced sales and their impact on real estate prices," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 60-68.
    8. Terrence M. Clauretie & Nasser Daneshvary, 2009. "Estimating the House Foreclosure Discount Corrected for Spatial Price Interdependence and Endogeneity of Marketing Time," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 37(1), pages 43-67, March.
    9. Mark Maurin & Michael Heinrich & Thomas Schreck & Tobias Just, 2016. "Characteristics of german foreclosed residential assets, their real values and discounts. An empirical study," ERES eres2016_114, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    10. Mocking, Remco & Overvest, Bastiaan, 2017. "Direct and spillover effects of forced sales on house prices: Evidence from the Netherlands," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 50-61.
    11. James N. Conklin & N. Edward Coulson & Moussa Diop, 2023. "Distressed comps," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 51(1), pages 170-195, January.
    12. Peter-Hendrik Ingermann & Frederik Hesse & Christian Bélorgey & Andreas Pfingsten, 2016. "The recovery rate for retail and commercial customers in Germany: a look at collateral and its adjusted market values," Business Research, Springer;German Academic Association for Business Research, vol. 9(2), pages 179-228, August.
    13. Terrence Clauretie & Nasser Daneshvary, 2011. "The Optimal Choice for Lenders Facing Defaults: Short Sale, Foreclose, or REO," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 42(4), pages 504-521, May.
    14. Amoruso Paola & Mariani Massimo & d’Amato Maurizio & Didonato Raffaele, 2020. "Italian Auction Market: Features of Discounted Forced Sale Price," Real Estate Management and Valuation, Sciendo, vol. 28(3), pages 12-23, September.
    15. Paul Carrillo, 2013. "Testing for Fraud in the Residential Mortgage Market: How Much Did Early-Payment-Defaults Overpay for Housing?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 36-64, July.
    16. Remco Mocking & Bastiaan Overvest, 2015. "Estimating the Impact of Forced Sales on House Prices," CPB Discussion Paper 304.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    17. Ramya Aroul & J. Hansz, 2014. "The Valuation Impact on Distressed Residential Transactions: Anatomy of a Housing Price Bubble," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 277-302, August.
    18. Donner, Herman, 2017. "Determinants of a Foreclosure Discount," Working Paper Series 17/2, Royal Institute of Technology, Department of Real Estate and Construction Management & Banking and Finance.
    19. Remco Mocking & Bastiaan Overvest, 2015. "Estimating the Impact of Forced Sales on House Prices," CPB Discussion Paper 304, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    20. Conklin, James N. & Edward Coulson, N. & Diop, Moussa & Mota, Nuno, 2023. "An Alternative Approach to Estimating Foreclosure and Short Sale Discounts," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    21. W. Scott Frame, 2010. "Estimating the effect of mortgage foreclosures on nearby property values: a critical review of the literature," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 95(3).

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    16. Paul Carrillo, 2013. "Testing for Fraud in the Residential Mortgage Market: How Much Did Early-Payment-Defaults Overpay for Housing?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 36-64, July.
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    18. Peter Chinloy & William Hardin & Zhonghua Wu, 2017. "Foreclosure, REO, and Market Sales in Residential Real Estate," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 188-215, February.
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    20. Shu Ling Chiang & Ming Shann Tsai & Shan Jiang, 2021. "The Influences of Foreclosure Factors on the Value, Yield, Duration and Convexity of a Mortgage," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 49(S2), pages 361-394, September.

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    • L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services

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