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Precio de fundamentos para las viviendas en Uruguay

Author

Listed:
  • Jorge Ponce

    () (Banco Central del Uruguay)

Abstract

This paper proposes a model of fundamentals for the price of housing. The model is calibrated with data for Uruguay. The main findings are that real housing prices fluctuate more that justified by fundamentals, that a fall in fundamental prices anticipate the crisis of the year 2002, and that in the recent period fundamental prices follow a stable trend of positive growth while real housing prices fluctuates around it.

Suggested Citation

  • Jorge Ponce, 2012. "Precio de fundamentos para las viviendas en Uruguay," Documentos de trabajo 2012017, Banco Central del Uruguay.
  • Handle: RePEc:bku:doctra:2012017
    as

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    File URL: http://www.bcu.gub.uy/Estadisticas-e-Indicadores/Documentos%20de%20Trabajo/17.2012.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2012
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aizenman, Joshua & Jinjarak, Yothin, 2009. "Current account patterns and national real estate markets," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 75-89, September.
    2. Christian Hott, 2007. "Explaining house price fluctuations," Proceedings 1055, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    3. Hideaki Hirata & M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Marco E Terrones, 2013. "Global House Price Fluctuations: Synchronization and Determinants," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(1), pages 119-166.
    4. David Laibson & Johanna Mollerstrom, 2010. "Capital Flows, Consumption Booms and Asset Bubbles: A Behavioural Alternative to the Savings Glut Hypothesis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(544), pages 354-374, May.
    5. Luis M. Cubeddu & Camilo E Tovar Mora & Evridiki Tsounta, 2012. "Latin America; Vulnerabilities Under Construction?," IMF Working Papers 12/193, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Jack Favilukis & David Kohn & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2012. "International Capital Flows and House Prices: Theory and Evidence," NBER Chapters,in: Housing and the Financial Crisis, pages 235-299 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Christian Hott & Terhi Jokipii, 2012. "Housing Bubbles and Interest Rates," Working Papers 2012-07, Swiss National Bank.
    8. Carlos Garriga & Rodolfo E. Manuelli & Adrian Peralta-Alva, 2012. "A model of price swings in the housing market," Working Papers 2012-022, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    9. Soyoung Kim & Doo Yang, 2011. "The Impact of Capital Inflows on Asset Prices in Emerging Asian Economies: Is Too Much Money Chasing Too Little Good?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 293-315, April.
    10. Hiroyuki Taguchi, 2012. "Capital Inflows and Asset Prices: The Recent Evidence of Selected East Asian Economies," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 2(8), pages 902-920, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Fernando Borraz & Gerardo Licandro & Jorge Ponce, 2012. "Precios de viviendas. una metodología para evaluar desvíos respecto a sus fundamentos," Documentos de trabajo 2012016, Banco Central del Uruguay.
    2. Elizabeth Bucacos, 2017. "Financial Conditions and Monetary Policy in Uruguay: An MS-VAR Approach," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 8275, Inter-American Development Bank.
    3. Graciela Sanroman & Guillermo Santos, 2017. "The Joint Distribution of Income and Wealth in Uruguay," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 0717, Department of Economics - dECON.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Housing price; model of fundamentals; financial stability; Uruguay;

    JEL classification:

    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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