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The Inverted Leading Indicator Property and Redistribution Effect of the Interest Rate

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  • Pintus, Patrick A.

    (Banque de France)

  • Wen, Yi

    () (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)

  • Xing, Xiaochuan

    (Yale University)

Abstract

The interest rate at which US firms borrow funds has two features: (i) it moves in a countercyclical fashion and (ii) it is an inverted leading indicator of real economic activity: low interest rates today forecast future booms in GDP, consumption, investment, and employment. We show that a Kiyotaki-Moore model accounts for both properties when interest-rate movements are driven, in a significant way, by self-fulfilling shocks that redistribute income away from lenders and to borrowers during booms. The credit-based nature of such self-fulfilling equilibria is shown to be essential: the dynamic correlation between current loanable funds rate and future aggregate economic activity depends critically on the property that the interest rate is state-contingent. Bayesian estimation of our benchmark DSGE model on US data shows that the model driven by redistribution shocks results in a better fit to the data than both standard RBC models and Kiyotaki-Moore type models with unique equilibrium.

Suggested Citation

  • Pintus, Patrick A. & Wen, Yi & Xing, Xiaochuan, 2016. "The Inverted Leading Indicator Property and Redistribution Effect of the Interest Rate," Working Papers 2016-27, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 22 Feb 2017.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2016-027
    DOI: 10.20955/wp.2016.027
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    Cited by:

    1. joshuabrault@cmail.carleton.ca & Hashmat Khan, "undated". "The Shifts in Lead-Lag Properties of the US Business Cycle," Carleton Economic Papers 18-03, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
    2. Wei Dai & Mark Weder & Bo Zhang, 2017. "Animal Spirits, Financial Markets and Aggregate Instability," School of Economics Working Papers 2017-08, University of Adelaide, School of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Endogenous Collateral Constraints; State-Contingent Loan Repayment; Redistribution Shocks; Multiple Equilibria.;

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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