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Why is the market share of adjustable-rate mortgages so low?

Author

Listed:
  • Emanuel Moench
  • James Vickery
  • Diego Aragon

Abstract

Over the past several years, U.S. homebuyers have increasingly favored fixed-rate mortgages over adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs). Indeed, ARMs have dropped to less than 10 percent of all residential mortgage originations, a near-record low. One might speculate that the decline in the ARM share has been driven by “one-off” factors relating to the financial crisis. However, a statistical analysis suggests that recent trends can largely be explained by the same factors that have historically shaped mortgage choice—most notably, the term structure of interest rates and its effects on the relative price of different types of mortgages. Supply-side factors, in particular a rise in the share of mortgages eligible to be securitized by the housing government-sponsored enterprises, also play a role in the low current ARM share.

Suggested Citation

  • Emanuel Moench & James Vickery & Diego Aragon, 2010. "Why is the market share of adjustable-rate mortgages so low?," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 16(Dec).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednci:y:2010:i:dec:n:v.16no.8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Johannes C. Stroebel & John B. Taylor, 2009. "Estimated Impact of the Fed's Mortgage-Backed Securities Purchase Program," NBER Working Papers 15626, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Koijen, Ralph S.J. & Hemert, Otto Van & Nieuwerburgh, Stijn Van, 2009. "Mortgage timing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 292-324, August.
    3. Adrian, Tobias & Crump, Richard K. & Moench, Emanuel, 2013. "Pricing the term structure with linear regressions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 110-138.
    4. Joseph E. Gagnon & Matthew Raskin & Julie Remache & Brian P. Sack, 2011. "Large-scale asset purchases by the Federal Reserve: did they work?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 41-59.
    5. James Vickery, 2007. "Interest rates and consumer choice in the residential mortgage market: a summary," Proceedings 1041, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    6. Guy Debelle, 2004. "Household debt and the macroeconomy," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Yi Wen & Xiaochuan Xing & Patrick Pintus, 2016. "Interest Rate Dynamics, Variable-Rate Loans, and the Business Cycle," 2016 Meeting Papers 293, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Andreas Fuster & James Vickery, 2015. "Securitization and the Fixed-Rate Mortgage," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(1), pages 176-211.
    3. Adrien Auclert, 2015. "Monetary Policy and the Redistribution Channel," 2015 Meeting Papers 381, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Cristian Badarinza & John Y. Campbell & Tarun Ramadorai, 2014. "What Calls to ARMs? International Evidence on Interest Rates and the Choice of Adjustable-Rate Mortgages," NBER Working Papers 20408, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Masashi Saito & Yoshihiko Hogen, 2014. "Portfolio Rebalancing Following the Bank of Japan's Government Bond Purchases: Empirical Analysis Using Data on Bank Loans and Investment Flows," Bank of Japan Research Papers 14-06-19, Bank of Japan.
    6. Hancock, Diana & Passmore, Wayne, 2016. "Cost of funds indexed mortgage contracts with government-backed catastrophic insurance (COFI-Cats): A realistic alternative to the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 109-130.
    7. Pintus, Patrick A. & Wen, Yi & Xing, Xiaochuan, 2015. "Interest Rate Dynamics, Variable-Rate Loan Contracts, and the Business Cycle," Working Papers 2015-32, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 28 Mar 2016.
    8. P. A. Pintus & Y. Wen & X. Xing, 2016. "The Inverted Leading Indicator Property and Redistribution Effect of the Interest Rate," Working papers 616, Banque de France.
    9. Davis, Morris A. & Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn, 2015. "Housing, Finance, and the Macroeconomy," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, Elsevier.

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