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Debt-Deflation versus the Liquidity Trap : the Dilemma of Nonconventional Monetary Policy

  • Gaël Giraud

    ()

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics)

  • Antonin Pottier

    ()

    (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - CIRAD - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

This paper examines quantity-targeting monetary policy in a two-period economy with fiat money, endogenously incomplete markets of financial securities, durable goods and production. Short positions in financial assets and long-term loans are backed by collateral, the value of which depends on monetary policy. The decision to default is endogenous and depends on the relative value of the collateral to the loan. We show that Collateral Monetary Equilibria exist and prove there is also a refinement of the Quantity Theory of Money that turns out to be compatible with the long-run non-neutrality of money. Moreover, only three scenarios are compatible with the equilibrium condition : 1) either the economy enters a liquidity trap in the first period ; 2) or a credible ex-pansionary monetary policy accompanies the orderly functioning of markets at the cost of running an inflationary risk ; 3) else the money injected by the Central Bank increases the leverage of indebted investors, fueling a financial bubble whose bursting leads to debt-deflation in the next period with a non-zero probability. This dilemma of monetary policy highlights the default channel affecting trades and production, and provides a rigorous foundation to Fisher's debt deflation theory as being distinct from Keynes' liquidity trap.

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Paper provided by HAL in its series Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) with number halshs-00747904.

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Date of creation: Oct 2012
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Publication status: Published in Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 2012.64 - ISSN : 1955-611X. 2012
Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00747904
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00747904
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  1. Bernard Cornet & Ramu Gopalan, 2010. "Arbitrage and equilibrium with portfolio constraints," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00629777, HAL.
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  3. Tobias Adrian & Hyun Song Shin, 2008. "Liquidity and leverage," Staff Reports 328, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  4. Timothy J. Kehoe & David K. Levine, 1993. "Debt-Constrained Asset Markets," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 60(4), pages 865-888.
  5. Bernard Cornet & Ramu Gopalan, 2009. "Arbitrage and equilibrium with portofolio constraints," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 09077, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
  6. Athanasios Orphanides, 2004. "Monetary policy in deflation: the liquidity trap in history and practice," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-01, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. P. Dubey & J. Geanakoplos, 2001. "Competitive Pooling: Rothschild-Stiglitz Reconsidered," Department of Economics Working Papers 01-10, Stony Brook University, Department of Economics.
  8. Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1982. "The Inefficiency of the Stock Market Equilibrium," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 49(2), pages 241-261.
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  10. Gaël Giraud & Antonin Pottier, 2016. "Debt-deflation versus the liquidity trap: the dilemma of nonconventional monetary policy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 62(1), pages 383-408, June.
  11. Enrique G. Mendoza & Katherine A. Smith, 2004. "Quantitative Implication of A Debt-Deflation Theory of Sudden Stops and Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 10940, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. John Geanakoplos & Polemarchakis, Heracles M., 1985. "Walrasian Indeterminacy and Keynesian Macroeconomics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 778, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
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  14. Krugman, Paul, 2000. "Thinking About the Liquidity Trap," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 221-237, December.
  15. Duffie, Darrell & Shafer, Wayne, 1985. "Equilibrium in incomplete markets: I : A basic model of generic existence," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 285-300, June.
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  17. Geanakoplos, John, 1990. "An introduction to general equilibrium with incomplete asset markets," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 1-38.
  18. Dan Vu Cao, 2010. "Collateral Shortages, Asset Price And Investment Volatility With Heterogeneous Beliefs," 2010 Meeting Papers 1233, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  19. Reinhart, Carmen, 2009. "The Second Great Contraction," MPRA Paper 21485, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  20. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Michael Woodford, 2003. "The Zero Bound on Interest Rates and Optimal Monetary Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 139-235.
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  22. Giraud, Gael, 2003. "Strategic market games: an introduction," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(5-6), pages 355-375, July.
  23. Reinhart, Karmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. ""This time is different": panorama of eight centuries of financial crises," Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 77-114, March.
  24. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00747904 is not listed on IDEAS
  25. Andre Meier, 2009. "Panacea, Curse, or Nonevent? Unconventional Monetary Policy in the United Kingdom," IMF Working Papers 09/163, International Monetary Fund.
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