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Debt-Deflation versus the Liquidity Trap : the Dilemma of Nonconventional Monetary Policy

Author

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  • Gaël Giraud

    () (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics)

  • Antonin Pottier

    () (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - AgroParisTech - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CIRAD - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement)

Abstract

This paper examines quantity-targeting monetary policy in a two-period economy with fiat money, endogenously incomplete markets of financial securities, durable goods and production. Short positions in financial assets and long-term loans are backed by collateral, the value of which depends on monetary policy. The decision to default is endogenous and depends on the relative value of the collateral to the loan. We show that Collateral Monetary Equilibria exist and prove there is also a refinement of the Quantity Theory of Money that turns out to be compatible with the long-run non-neutrality of money. Moreover, only three scenarios are compatible with the equilibrium condition : 1) either the economy enters a liquidity trap in the first period ; 2) or a credible ex-pansionary monetary policy accompanies the orderly functioning of markets at the cost of running an inflationary risk ; 3) else the money injected by the Central Bank increases the leverage of indebted investors, fueling a financial bubble whose bursting leads to debt-deflation in the next period with a non-zero probability. This dilemma of monetary policy highlights the default channel affecting trades and production, and provides a rigorous foundation to Fisher's debt deflation theory as being distinct from Keynes' liquidity trap.

Suggested Citation

  • Gaël Giraud & Antonin Pottier, 2012. "Debt-Deflation versus the Liquidity Trap : the Dilemma of Nonconventional Monetary Policy," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00747904, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00747904
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00747904
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Krugman, Paul, 2000. "Thinking About the Liquidity Trap," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 221-237, December.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Soldatos, Gerasimos T. & Varelas, Erotokritos, 2014. "The Chicago Tradition and Commercial Bank Seigniorage," MPRA Paper 57721, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. varelas, erotokritos, 2013. "A Comment on Chicago Rule, Chicago School, and Commercial Bank Seigniorage," MPRA Paper 48770, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Gaël Giraud & Antonin Pottier, 2016. "Debt-deflation versus the liquidity trap: the dilemma of nonconventional monetary policy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 62(1), pages 383-408, June.
    4. Erotokritos Varelas & Gerasimos T. Soldatos, 2014. "The Chicago Tradition and Commercial Bank Seigniorage," Research in World Economy, Research in World Economy, Sciedu Press, vol. 5(1), pages 29-38, March.
    5. repec:spr:joecth:v:65:y:2018:i:4:d:10.1007_s00199-017-1040-5 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Maxime Menuet & Alexandru Minea & Patrick Villieu, 2018. "Deficit, monetization, and economic growth: a case for multiplicity and indeterminacy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 65(4), pages 819-853, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    quantitative easing; debt-deflation.; deflation; default; debt-deflation; Banque Centrale; trappe à liquidité; défaut; assouplissement quantitatif; déflation par la dette.; Central Bank; liquidity trap; collateral;

    JEL classification:

    • D50 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - General
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General

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