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Financial crashes versus liquidity trap : the dilemma of monetary policy

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  • Gaël Giraud

    () (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics, ESCP Europe)

Abstract

This paper considers a two-period monetary double auction with incomplete markets of securities and derivatives. Players may share heterogenous beliefs. Short positions in derivatives are constrained by collateral requirements. A central Bank stands ready to lend money or engage in unconventional monetary policy such as quantitative easing. In sharp contrast with the usual picture of equilibrium properties, I show that only three scenarios are compatible with Nash equilibrium condition : 1) either the economy enters a liquidity trap in the first period ; 2) or the money injected by the Central Bank fuels a financial inflation driven by "rational exuberance", whose burst leads to a global crash in the next period, 3) else a significant inflation of commodity prices accompanies the functioning of markets. In particular, neither Friedman's golden rule, nor the Taylor rule turn out to be compatible with the third scenario : Both inevitable lead to a liquidity trap. An example shows that quantitative easing does not provide, in general, any escape from the monetary dilemma.

Suggested Citation

  • Gaël Giraud, 2010. "Financial crashes versus liquidity trap : the dilemma of monetary policy," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00657047, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00657047
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00657047
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Andre Meier, 2009. "Panacea, Curse, or Nonevent? Unconventional Monetary Policy in the United Kingdom," IMF Working Papers 09/163, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Zame, William R, 1993. "Efficiency and the Role of Default When Security Markets Are Incomplete," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1142-1164, December.
    3. John Geanakoplos & Ana Fostel, 2008. "Leverage Cycles and the Anxious Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1211-1244, September.
    4. Olivier Blanchard & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Paolo Mauro, 2010. "Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 199-215, September.
    5. Karl Schmedders, Felix Kubler, 2001. "Asset Pricing in Models with incomplete markets and default," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 58, Society for Computational Economics.
    6. Gaël Giraud, 2004. "The limit-price exchange process," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques b04118, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
    7. Giraud, Gael, 2003. "Strategic market games: an introduction," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(5-6), pages 355-375, July.
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