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Is it Worth Tracking Dollar/Real Implied Volatility?

Author

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  • Sandro Canesso de Andrade
  • Benjamin Miranda Tabak

Abstract

In this paper we examine the relation between dollar-real exchange rate volatility implied in option prices and subsequent realized volatility, in the period of February 1999 to June 2000. Our results are in line with recent literature, suggesting that the implied volatility obtained from a simple option-pricing model, although an upward-biased estimator of future volatility does provide information about volatility over the remaining life of the option, which is not present in past returns. Results are robust to the choice of two alternative time series models to explore information embedded in returns, a fixed volatility and a GARCH (1,1) model, even allowing for in-sample forecasts by the GARCH (1,1) model. Results are also robust to the choice of measuring realized volatility in two alternative ways.

Suggested Citation

  • Sandro Canesso de Andrade & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2001. "Is it Worth Tracking Dollar/Real Implied Volatility?," Working Papers Series 15, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:15
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Charles Lima De Almeida & Marco Aur�LIO Peres & Geraldo Da Silva E Souza & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2003. "Optimal monetary rules: the case of Brazil," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(5), pages 299-302, April.
    2. Mr. Mark R. Stone & W. Christopher Walker & Yosuke Yasui, 2009. "From Lombard Street to Avenida Paulista: Foreign Exchange Liquidity Easing in Brazil in Response to the Global Shock of 2008–09," IMF Working Papers 2009/259, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Sergio R. S. Souza & Benjamin M. Tabak & Daniel O. Cajueiro, 2008. "Long-Range Dependence In Exchange Rates: The Case Of The European Monetary System," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(02), pages 199-223.
    4. Tito Nícias Teixeira da Silva Filho, 2001. "Estimando o Produto Potencial Brasileiro: Uma Abordagem de Função de Produção," Working Papers Series 17, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    5. Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2003. "Monetary Policy Surprises and the Brazilian Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers Series 70, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    6. Araújo, Aloísio Pessoa de & Leon, Márcia Saraiva, 2003. "Speculative attacks on debts and optimum currency area: a welfare analysis," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 514, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    7. Alexandre A. Tombini & Sergio A. Lago Alves, 2006. "The Recent Brazilian Disinflation Process and Costs," Working Papers Series 109, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    8. Tarsila Segalla Afanasieff & Priscilla Maria Villa Lhacer & Márcio I. Nakane, 2002. "The Determinants of Bank Interest Spread in Brazil," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 183-207, July-Dece.
    9. Arminio Fraga & Ilan Goldfajn & André Minella, 2004. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, Volume 18, pages 365-416, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Marcos Massaki Abe & Eui Jung Chang & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2007. "Forecasting Exchange Rate Density Using Parametric Models: the Case of Brazil," Brazilian Review of Finance, Brazilian Society of Finance, vol. 5(1), pages 29-39.
    11. Chang, E.J. & Guerra, S.M. & Lima, E.J.A. & Tabak, B.M., 2008. "The stability-concentration relationship in the Brazilian banking system," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 388-397, October.
    12. Takami, Marcelo Yoshio & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda, 2008. "Interest rate option pricing and volatility forecasting: An application to Brazil," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 755-763.
    13. Gomes, Frederico Pechir & Takami, Marcelo Yoshio & Brandi, Vinicius Ratton, 2008. "Investigating Unusual Changes in Real-Dollar Exchange Rate," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 62(2), October.
    14. Paulo Coutinho & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2002. "Delegated Portfolio Management," Working Papers Series 60, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    15. Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2003. "On the Information Content of Oil Future Prices," Working Papers Series 65, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    16. Minella, Andre & de Freitas, Paulo Springer & Goldfajn, Ilan & Muinhos, Marcelo Kfoury, 2003. "Inflation targeting in Brazil: constructing credibility under exchange rate volatility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(7), pages 1015-1040, December.
    17. Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos & Márcio I. Nakane, 2006. "Comparing equilibrium real interest rates: different approaches to measure Brazilian rates," Working Papers Series 101, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    18. Benjamin Miranda Tabak. Solange Maria Guerra, 2002. "Stock Returns and Volatility," Working Papers Series 54, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    19. André Soares Loureiro & Fernando de Holanda Barbosa, 2004. "Risk Premia for Emerging Markets Bonds: Evidence from Brazilian Government Debt, 1996-2002," Working Papers Series 85, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    20. Victorio Yi Tson Chu, 2002. "Credit Channel with Sovereign Credit Risk: an Empirical Test," Working Papers Series 51, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    21. Aloísio P. Araújo & José Valentim M. Vicente, 2006. "Contagion, Bankruptcy and Social Welfare Analysis in a Financial Economy with Risk Regulation Constraint," Working Papers Series 118, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    22. Eui Jung Chang & Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos & Joanílio Rodolpho Teixeira, 2002. "Macroeconomic Coordination and Inflation Targeting in a Two-Country Model," Working Papers Series 50, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    23. Leonardo Soriano de Alencar & Márcio I. Nakane, 2003. "Real Balances in the Utility Function: Evidence for Brazil," Working Papers Series 68, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    24. Angelo Marsiglia Fasolo, 2006. "Interdependence and Contagion: an Analysis of Information Transmission in Latin America's Stock Markets," Working Papers Series 112, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.

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