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Credit Channel with Sovereign Credit Risk: an Empirical Test

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  • Victorio Yi Tson Chu

Abstract

According to Bernanke and Gertler (1995), the Credit Channel amplifies the traditional monetary transmission and this amplification effect comes through the firm's external finance premium, which is a wedge between the expected return for the funds generated internally and the costs of funds raised externally to the firm. Traditionally, this wedge is the bank loan spread but we extend this concept to include the sovereign (country) credit risk and name it, Extended Credit Channel. Armed with this new concept and using a set up model, we estimate two econometric equations for the Brazilian economy after its inflation stabilization program. These two econometric equations measure: (1) the effects of the pure money channel (real interest rates and compulsory reserve requirements on demand deposits) and the extended credit channel (country credit risk and bank loan spread) on the economy's production, and (2) the impacts of the real interest rates, compulsory reserve requirements on demand deposits, and country credit risk on the bank loan spread. Both equations coefficients signs conform to the expected theoretical model. With the results of the estimated equation (1), we define a Product Loss Index Number to compare these two transmission channels (extended credit and pure monetary). This comparison shows that the extended credit channel is a relevant as the pure monetary channel.

Suggested Citation

  • Victorio Yi Tson Chu, 2002. "Credit Channel with Sovereign Credit Risk: an Empirical Test," Working Papers Series 51, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:51
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    1. Charles Lima De Almeida & Marco Aur�LIO Peres & Geraldo Da Silva E Souza & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2003. "Optimal monetary rules: the case of Brazil," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(5), pages 299-302, April.
    2. Sergio R. S. Souza & Benjamin M. Tabak & Daniel O. Cajueiro, 2008. "Long-Range Dependence In Exchange Rates: The Case Of The European Monetary System," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(02), pages 199-223.
    3. Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2003. "Monetary Policy Surprises and the Brazilian Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers Series 70, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    4. Araújo, Aloísio Pessoa de & Leon, Márcia Saraiva, 2003. "Speculative attacks on debts and optimum currency area: a welfare analysis," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 514, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    5. Mauricio S. Bugarin & Fabia A. de Carvalho, 2005. "Comment on ‘Market discipline and monetary policy’ by Carl Walsh," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 57(4), pages 732-739, October.
    6. Alexandre A. Tombini & Sergio A. Lago Alves, 2006. "The Recent Brazilian Disinflation Process and Costs," Working Papers Series 109, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    7. Arminio Fraga & Ilan Goldfajn & André Minella, 2004. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, Volume 18, pages 365-416, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Paulo Coutinho & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2002. "Delegated Portfolio Management," Working Papers Series 60, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    9. Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2003. "On the Information Content of Oil Future Prices," Working Papers Series 65, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    10. Minella, Andre & de Freitas, Paulo Springer & Goldfajn, Ilan & Muinhos, Marcelo Kfoury, 2003. "Inflation targeting in Brazil: constructing credibility under exchange rate volatility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(7), pages 1015-1040, December.
    11. Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos & Márcio I. Nakane, 2006. "Comparing equilibrium real interest rates: different approaches to measure Brazilian rates," Working Papers Series 101, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    12. Leonardo Soriano de Alencar & Márcio I. Nakane, 2004. "Bank Competition, Agency Costs and the Performance of the Monetary Policy," Working Papers Series 81, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    13. Benjamin Miranda Tabak. Solange Maria Guerra, 2002. "Stock Returns and Volatility," Working Papers Series 54, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    14. André Soares Loureiro & Fernando de Holanda Barbosa, 2004. "Risk Premia for Emerging Markets Bonds: Evidence from Brazilian Government Debt, 1996-2002," Working Papers Series 85, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    15. Leonardo Soriano de Alencar & Márcio I. Nakane, 2003. "Real Balances in the Utility Function: Evidence for Brazil," Working Papers Series 68, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.

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