IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bcb/wpaper/95.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Comment on Market Discipline and Monetary Policy by Carl Walsh

Author

Listed:
  • Maurício S. Bugarin
  • Fabia A. de Carvalho

Abstract

This paper aims at correcting flaws in the way expectations are set in a paper by Walsh (2000) in order to assess with precision the impact of complex market rigidities and market expectations in the optimal choices of inflation in a monetary game between society and central bankers. After setting the expectations right, one of the results achieved indicates that the optimal inflation under any type of central banker is higher than that obtained in the original paper, suggesting that the time inconsistency phenomenon plays a more important role in explaining an inflationary bias than originally interpreted by Walsh (2000). However, if society organizes itself towards shorter tenure wage contracts, inflation will be lower. The results obtained for the output gap of the economy also differ from those achieved by Walsh in the sense that a central banker who is highly committed to previously announced inflation targets will have more opportunities to generate output growth above equilibrium rates and still commit. Finally, the stability of the premises regarding the contractual structure of the economy proposed by Walsh is tested under a game theoretic approach. The outcome of the test is that stability can be guaranteed only under strong assumptions and high symmetry in the sectoral distribution of firms. By using a social welfare function in which price surprises in any direction lead to welfare loss, the results indicate that society is better off by choosing longer tenure wage contracts, moving away from shorter tenure ones, at the cost of higher inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Maurício S. Bugarin & Fabia A. de Carvalho, 2005. "Comment on Market Discipline and Monetary Policy by Carl Walsh," Working Papers Series 95, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:95
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bcb.gov.br/pec/wps/ingl/wps95.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:sbe:breart:v:24:y:2004:i:2:a:2712 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Marcelle Chauvet, 2000. "Leading Indicators of Inflation for Brazil," Working Papers Series 7, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    3. Tarsila Segalla Afanasieff & Priscilla Maria Villa Lhacer & Márcio I. Nakane, 2002. "The Determinants of Bank Interest Spread in Brazil," Money Affairs, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(2), pages 183-207, July-Dece.
    4. Mirta Noemí Sataka Bugarin & Roberto de Goes Ellery Jr. & Victor Gomes Silva & Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos, 2005. "Steady State Analysis of an Open Economy General Equilibrium Model for Brazil," Working Papers Series 92, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    5. Araújo, Aloísio Pessoa de & Leon, Márcia Saraiva, 2002. "Speculative attacks on debts, dollarization and optimum currency areas," FGV/EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 446, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
    6. Nakane, Marcio I. & Weintraub, Daniela B., 2005. "Bank privatization and productivity: Evidence for Brazil," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(8-9), pages 2259-2289, August.
    7. André Soares Loureiro & Fernando de Holanda Barbosa, 2004. "Risk Premia for Emerging Markets Bonds: Evidence from Brazilian Government Debt, 1996-2002," Working Papers Series 85, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    8. Fajardo, José & Farias, Aquiles, 2004. "Generalized Hyperbolic Distributions and Brazilian Data," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 24(2), November.
    9. Pedro H. Albuquerque, 2000. "An Information Theory Approach to the Aggregation of Log-Linear Models," Working Papers Series 4, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    10. Thomas Y. Wu, 2004. "Does Inflation Targeting Reduce Inflation? An Analysis for the OECD Industrial Countries," Working Papers Series 83, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    11. Eduardo Lundberg, 2000. "Monetary Policy and Banking Supervision Functions on the Central Bank," Working Papers Series 2, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    12. Getúlio Borges da Silveira & Octavio Bessada, 2003. "Análise de componentes principais de dados funcionais - uma aplicação às estruturas a termo de taxas de juros," Working Papers Series 73, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    13. Arnildo da Silva Correa & Ronald Otto Hillbrecht, 2003. "Ciclos Internacionais de Negócios: uma Análise de Mudança de Regime Markoviano para Brasil, Argentina e Estados Unidos," Anais do XXXI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 31th Brazilian Economics Meeting] b47, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    14. Araújo, Aloísio Pessoa de & Leon, Márcia Saraiva, 2003. "Speculative attacks on debts and optimum currency area: a welfare analysis," FGV/EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 514, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
    15. Ricardo Schechtman & Valéria Salomão Garcia & Sergio Mikio Koyama & Guilherme Cronemberger Parente, 2004. "Credit Risk Measurement and the Regulation of Bank Capital and Provision Requirements in Brazil - A Corporate Analysis," Working Papers Series 91, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    16. Leonardo Soriano de Alencar & Márcio I. Nakane, 2003. "Real Balances in the Utility Function: Evidence for Brazil," Working Papers Series 68, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    17. Arnildo da Silva Correa, 2003. "Diferenças e Semelhanças entre Países da América Latina: Uma Análise de Markov Switching para os Ciclos Econômicos de Brasil e Argentina," Working Papers Series 80, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    18. Emanuel-Werner Kohlscheen, 2000. "Estimating Exchange Market Pressure and Intervention Activity," Working Papers Series 9, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    19. Francisco Marcos R. Figueiredo & Thaís Porto Ferreira, 2002. "Os Preços Administrados e a Inflação no Brasil," Working Papers Series 59, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    20. Benjamin Miranda Tabak & Solange Maria Guerra, 2002. "Stock Returns and Volatility," Working Papers Series 54, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Maria da Glória D. S. Araújo & Mirta Bugarin & Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos & Jose Ricardo C. Silva, 2006. "The Effect of Adverse Supply Shocks on Monetary Policy and Output," Working Papers Series 103, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    2. Solange Gouvea, 2007. "Price Rigidity in Brazil: Evidence from CPI Micro Data," Working Papers Series 143, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    3. Jaqueline Terra Moura Marins & Eduardo Saliby & Joséte Florencio do Santos, 2006. "Out-Of-The_Money Monte Carlo Simulation Option Pricing: the join use of Importance Sampling and Descriptive Sampling," Working Papers Series 116, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    4. Flávia Mourão Graminho, 2006. "A Neoclassical Analysis of the Brazilian "Lost-Decades"," Working Papers Series 123, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    5. Aloísio P. Araújo & José Valentim M. Vicente, 2006. "Contagion, Bankruptcy and Social Welfare Analysis in a Financial Economy with Risk Regulation Constraint," Working Papers Series 118, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    6. Márcio I. Nakane & Leonardo S. Alencar & Fabio Kanczuk, 2006. "Demand for Bank Services and Market Power in Brazilian Banking," Working Papers Series 107, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    7. Ana Carla A. Costa & João M. P. de Mello, 2006. "Judicial Risk and Credit Market Performance: Micro Evidence from Brazil Payroll Loans," Working Papers Series 102, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    8. Ricardo Schechtman, 2017. "Joint Validation of Credit Rating PDs under Default Correlation," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(2), pages 235-282, June.
    9. Gilneu F. A. Vivan & Benjamin M. Tabak, 2007. "A New Proposal for Collection and Generation of Information on Financial Institutions' Risk: the case of derivatives," Working Papers Series 133, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    10. Areosa, Waldyr Dutra & Areosa, Marta B.M., 2016. "The inequality channel of monetary transmission," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 214-230.
    11. C. Andrade, Eduardo, 2003. "Quotas in Brazilian Public Universities: Good or Bad Idea?," Insper Working Papers wpe_37, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
    12. Bugarin, Mauricio & Carvalho. Fabia A., 2006. "Heterogeneity of Central Bankers and Inflationary Pressure," Insper Working Papers wpe_68, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:95. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Francisco Marcos Rodrigues Figueiredo). General contact details of provider: http://www.bcb.gov.br/?english .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.