Os Preços Administrados e a Inflação no Brasil
During the last years, administered by contract and monitored prices have risen much more sharply than free prices, pressuring the price index used for the inflation targeting regime (IPCA). This paper examines the adjustment mechanisms of administered prices and the main factors behind their behavior. We stress the structural changes in tariffs occurred in privatized sectors, the backward-looking behavior of administered prices, the exchange rate pass-through to these prices, the trajectory of international oil prices and the differences between the general price indexes and the consumer price indexes. Using a simple regression, we identify the general price index known as IGP-DI as the most important factor to explain the different behavior of free prices and administered prices. We also estimate a Taylor Rule for the Central Bank and simulate a trajectory for the Selic interest rate, and conclude that monetary policy, aiming at fighting the secondary effects of administered prices shocks, has been negatively affected by the behavior of these prices.
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