IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Speculative attacks on debts and optimum currency area: a welfare analysis

  • Araújo, Aloísio Pessoa de
  • Leon, Márcia Saraiva

Traditionally the issue of an optimum currency area is based on the theoretical underpinnings developed in the 1960s by McKinnon [13], Kenen [12] and mainly Mundell [14], who is concerned with the benefits of lowering transaction costs vis-à- vis adjustments to asymmetrical shocks. Recently, this theme has been reappraised with new aspects included in the analysis, such as: incomplete markets, credibility of monetary policy and seigniorage, among others. For instance, Neumeyer [15] develops a general equilibrium model with incomplete asset markets and shows that a monetary union is desirable when the welfare gains of eliminating the exchange rate volatility are greater than the cost of reducing the number of currencies to hedge against risks. In this paper, we also resort to a general equilibrium model to evaluate financial aspects of an optimum currency area. Our focus is to appraise the welfare of a country heavily dependent on foreign capital that may suffer a speculative attack on its public debt. The welfare analysis uses as reference the self-fulfilling debt crisis model of Cole and Kehoe ([6], [7] and [8]), which is employed here to represent dollarization. Under this regime, the national government has no control over its monetary policy, the total public debt is denominated in dollars and it is in the hands of international bankers. To describe a country that is a member of a currency union, we modify the original Cole-Kehoe model by including public debt denominated in common currency, only purchased by national consumers. According to this rule, the member countries regain some influence over the monetary policy decision, which is, however, dependent on majority voting. We show that for specific levels of dollar debt, to create inflation tax on common-currency debt in order to avoid an external default is more desirable than to suspend its payment, which is the only choice available for a dollarized economy when foreign creditors decide not to renew their loans.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://bibliotecadigital.fgv.br/dspace/bitstream/10438/730/1/1475.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil) in its series Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) with number 514.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 14 Nov 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fgv:epgewp:514
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Praia de Botafogo 190, sala 1100, Rio de Janeiro/RJ - CEP: 22253-900

Phone: 55-21-2559-5871
Fax: 55-21-2553-8821
Web page: http://epge.fgv.br
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Araújo, Aloisio Pessoa de & Leon, Márcia Saraiva, 2002. "Ataques Especulativos sobre Dívidas e Dolarização," Revista Brasileira de Economia, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 56(1), January.
  2. Benjamin Miranda Tabak & Solange Maria Guerra, 2002. "Stock Returns and Volatility," Working Papers Series 54, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  3. Charles Lima de Almeida & Marco Aurélio Peres & Geraldo da Silva e Souza & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2003. "Optimal Monetary Rules: The Case of Brazil," Working Papers Series 63, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  4. Pedro H. Albuquerque, 2001. "Os Impactos Econômicos da CPMF: Teoria e Evidência," Working Papers Series 21, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  5. Alesina, Alberto F & Grilli, Vittorio, 1991. "The European Central Bank: Reshaping Monetary Politics in Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 563, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Bonomo, Marco Antônio Cesar & Brito, Ricardo D., 2001. "Regras monetárias e dinâmica macroeconômica no Brasil: uma abordagem de expectativas racionais," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 410, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  7. Benjamin Miranda Tabak & Eduardo José Araújo Lima, 2002. "Causality and Cointegration in Stock Markets: The Case of Latin America," Working Papers Series 56, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  8. Paulo Coutinho & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2001. "Decentralized Portfolio Management," Working Papers Series 22, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  9. Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2003. "Monetary Policy Surprises and the Brazilian Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers Series 70, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  10. Francisco Marcos Rodrigues Figueiredo, 2001. "Evaluating Core Inflation Measures for Brazil," Working Papers Series 14, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  11. Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2003. "On the Information Content of Oil Future Prices," Working Papers Series 65, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  12. Paulo Coutinho & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2002. "Delegated Portfolio Management," Working Papers Series 60, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  13. Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos & Sérgio Afonso Lago Alves & Gil Riella, 2002. "Modelo Estrutural com Setor Externo: Endogenização do Prêmio de Risco e do Câmbio," Working Papers Series 42, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  14. Leonardo Soriano de Alencar & Márcio I. Nakane, 2004. "Bank Competition, Agency Costs and the Performance of the Monetary Policy," Working Papers Series 81, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  15. Benjamin Miranda Tabak & Sandro Canesso de Andrade, 2001. "Testing the Expectations Hypothesis in the Brazilian Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers Series 30, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  16. Francisco Marcos R. Figueiredo & Roberta Blass Staub, 2001. "Algumas Considerações Sobre a Sazonalidade no IPCA," Working Papers Series 31, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  17. Mauro Costa Miranda, 2001. "Crises Cambiais e Ataques Especulativos no Brasil," Working Papers Series 32, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  18. Victorio Y. T. Chu & Márcio I. Nakane, 2001. "Credit Channel without the LM Curve," Working Papers Series 20, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  19. Francisco Marcos R. Figueiredo & Thaís Porto Ferreira, 2002. "Os Preços Administrados e a Inflação no Brasil," Working Papers Series 59, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  20. Thomas Y. Wu, 2004. "Does Inflation Targeting Reduce Inflation? An Analysis for the OECD Industrial Countries," Working Papers Series 83, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  21. Pedro H. Albuquerque, 2000. "An Information Theory Approach to the Aggregation of Log-Linear Models," Working Papers Series 4, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  22. Octavio Manuel Bessada Lion & Carlos Alberto Nunes Cosenza & César das Neves, 2003. "Aplicação do Modelo de Black, Derman & Toy à Precificação de Opções Sobre Títulos de Renda Fixa," Working Papers Series 74, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  23. Sandro Canesso de Andrade & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2001. "Is it Worth Tracking Dollar/Real Implied Volatility?," Working Papers Series 15, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  24. Marcelle Chauvet, 2000. "Leading Indicators of Inflation for Brazil," Working Papers Series 7, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  25. Fajardo, J. & Farias, A., 2003. "Generalized Hyperbolic Distributions and Brazilian Data," Finance Lab Working Papers flwp_57, Finance Lab, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
  26. Eduardo Lundberg, 2000. "Monetary Policy and Banking Supervision Functions on the Central Bank," Working Papers Series 2, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  27. Arnildo da Silva Correa, 2003. "Diferenças e Semelhanças entre Países da América Latina: Uma Análise de Markov Switching para os Ciclos Econômicos de Brasil e Argentina," Working Papers Series 80, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  28. Leonardo Soriano de Alencar & Márcio I. Nakane, 2003. "Real Balances in the Utility Function: Evidence for Brazil," Working Papers Series 68, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  29. Emanuel-Werner Kohlscheen, 2000. "Estimating Exchange Market Pressure and Intervention Activity," Working Papers Series 9, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fgv:epgewp:514. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Núcleo de Computação da EPGE)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.