IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bcb/wpaper/16.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Avaliação das Projeções do Modelo Estrutural do Banco Central do Brasil para a Taxa de Variação do IPCA

Author

Listed:
  • Sergio Afonso Lago Alves

Abstract

The article evaluates the performance of the small-scale macro model (SSMM) of the Central Bank of Brazil as a tool for supporting the monetary policy decision process. The forecasts of IPCA inflation for 1 to 3 quarters ahead were compared to market forecasts as well as to the projections of a benchmark model. Market projections made by private consulting institutions and banks turned out to be quite efficient for up to 2 quarters ahead, with almost no bias and low dispersion, suggesting the acceptance of the market efficiency hypothesis. The SSMM performed quite well for whole forecast horizon, presenting almost no forecast bias and low dispersion. Compared to other projections the SSMM forecasts yield, in average, the lowest dispersion and greater stability. The article concludes that the SSMM possess the basic features to support the monetary policy decision process.

Suggested Citation

  • Sergio Afonso Lago Alves, 2001. "Avaliação das Projeções do Modelo Estrutural do Banco Central do Brasil para a Taxa de Variação do IPCA," Working Papers Series 16, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:16
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bcb.gov.br/content/publicacoes/WorkingPaperSeries/wps16.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:16. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Rodrigo Barbone Gonzalez (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.