IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bcb/wpaper/138.html

Forecasting Exchange Rate Density using Parametric Models: The Case of Brazil

Author

Listed:
  • Marcos M. Abe
  • Eui J. Chang
  • Benjamin M. Tabak

Abstract

This paper employs a recently developed parametric technique to obtain density forecasts for the Brazilian exchange rate, using the exchange rate options market. Empirical results suggest that the option market contains useful information about future exchange rate density. These results suggests that density forecasts using options markets may add value for portfolio and risk management, and may be useful for financial regulators to assess financial stability.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcos M. Abe & Eui J. Chang & Benjamin M. Tabak, 2007. "Forecasting Exchange Rate Density using Parametric Models: The Case of Brazil," Working Papers Series 138, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:138
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bcb.gov.br/content/publicacoes/WorkingPaperSeries/wps138.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. José Renato Haas Ornelas, 2014. "Assessing the Forecast Ability of Risk-Neutral Densities and Real-World Densities from Emerging Markets Currencies," Working Papers Series 370, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    2. Ornelas, José Renato Haas, 2016. "The Forecast Ability of Option-implied Densities from Emerging Markets Currencies," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 36(1), March.
    3. José Renato Haas Ornelas & José Santiago Fajardo Barbachan & Aquiles Rocha de Farias, 2012. "Estimating Relative Risk Aversion, Risk-Neutral and Real-World Densities using Brazilian Real Currency Options," Working Papers Series 269, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:138. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Rodrigo Barbone Gonzalez (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.