Forecasting Exchange Rate Density using Parametric Models: The Case of Brazil
This paper employs a recently developed parametric technique to obtain density forecasts for the Brazilian exchange rate, using the exchange rate options market. Empirical results suggest that the option market contains useful information about future exchange rate density. These results suggests that density forecasts using options markets may add value for portfolio and risk management, and may be useful for financial regulators to assess financial stability.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Diebold, Francis X & Gunther, Todd A & Tay, Anthony S, 1998. "Evaluating Density Forecasts with Applications to Financial Risk Management," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 863-883, November.
- Melick, William R. & Thomas, Charles P., 1997. "Recovering an Asset's Implied PDF from Option Prices: An Application to Crude Oil during the Gulf Crisis," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(01), pages 91-115, March.
- Sandro Canesso de Andrade & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2001. "Is it Worth Tracking Dollar/Real Implied Volatility?," Working Papers Series 15, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
- de Jong, C.M. & Huisman, R., 2000. "From Skews to a Skewed-t," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2000-12-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
- Breeden, Douglas T & Litzenberger, Robert H, 1978. "Prices of State-contingent Claims Implicit in Option Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(4), pages 621-651, October.
- Kabir K. Dutta & David F. Babbel, 2002.
"Extracting Probabilistic Information from the Prices of Interest Rate Options: Tests of Distributional Assumptions,"
Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers
02-26, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- Kabir K. Dutta & David F. Babbel, 2005. "Extracting Probabilistic Information from the Prices of Interest Rate Options: Tests of Distributional Assumptions," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(3), pages 841-870, May.
- Charles J. Corrado, 2001. "Option pricing based on the generalized lambda distribution," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(3), pages 213-236, 03.
- Panigirtzoglou, Nikolaos & Skiadopoulos, George, 2004. "A new approach to modeling the dynamics of implied distributions: Theory and evidence from the S&P 500 options," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 1499-1520, July.
- repec:oxf:wpaper:1998-w10 is not listed on IDEAS
- Kabir K. Dutta & David F. Babbel, 2002. "On Measuring Skewness and Kurtosis in Short Rate Distributions: The Case of the US Dollar London Inter Bank Offer Rates," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 02-25, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- West, K.D. & Cho, D., 1993.
"The Predictive Ability of Several Models of Exchange Rate Volatility,"
9317r, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- West, Kenneth D. & Cho, Dongchul, 1995. "The predictive ability of several models of exchange rate volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 367-391, October.
- West, K.D. & Cho, D., 1993. "The Predictive Ability of Several Models of Exchange Rate Volatility," Working papers 9317, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Kenneth D. West & Dongchul Cho, 1994. "The Predictive Ability of Several Models of Exchange Rate Volatility," NBER Technical Working Papers 0152, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bookstaber, Richard M & McDonald, James B, 1987. "A General Distribution for Describing Security Price Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(3), pages 401-424, July.
- Ola Elerian & Siddhartha Chib & Neil Shephard, 2000.
"Likelihood inference for discretely observed non-linear diffusions,"
OFRC Working Papers Series
2000mf02, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
- Elerain, Ola & Chib, Siddhartha & Shephard, Neil, 2001. "Likelihood Inference for Discretely Observed Nonlinear Diffusions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(4), pages 959-993, July.
- Elerian, O. & Chib, S. & Shephard, N., 1998. "Likelihood INference for Discretely Observed Non-linear Diffusions," Economics Papers 146, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Robert R. Bliss & Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, 2004. "Option-Implied Risk Aversion Estimates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(1), pages 407-446, 02.
- Ritchey, Robert J, 1990. "Call Option Valuation for Discrete Normal Mixtures," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 13(4), pages 285-296, Winter.
- Robert J. Ritchey, 1990. "Call Option Valuation For Discrete Normal Mixtures," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 13(4), pages 285-296, December.