Finance and the Business Cycle: a Kalman Filter Approach with Markov Switching
This paper combines two popular econometric tools, the dynamic factor model and the Markov-Switching model, to consider three segments of the financial system- the stock market, debt, and money- and their contribution to US business cycles over the past four decades. The dynamic factor model identifies a composite factor index for each financial segment, and using Markov-switching models by Hamilton (1989) and Filardo (1994), this paper then estimates the effect of each segment index on business cycle behaviour. This reexamination of the finance-business cycle link provides results that prove strongest for the effect of stock market movements on business cycles.
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- Mark Gertler & R. Glenn Hubbard, 1988.
"Financial factors in business fluctuations,"
Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole,
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 33-78.
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