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Finance and the Business Cycle: a Kalman Filter Approach with Markov Switching

  • Ryan A. Compton
  • Jose Ricardo da Costa e Silva

This paper combines two popular econometric tools, the dynamic factor model and the Markov-Switching model, to consider three segments of the financial system- the stock market, debt, and money- and their contribution to US business cycles over the past four decades. The dynamic factor model identifies a composite factor index for each financial segment, and using Markov-switching models by Hamilton (1989) and Filardo (1994), this paper then estimates the effect of each segment index on business cycle behaviour. This reexamination of the finance-business cycle link provides results that prove strongest for the effect of stock market movements on business cycles.

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File URL: http://www.bcb.gov.br/pec/wps/ingl/wps97.pdf
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Paper provided by Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department in its series Working Papers Series with number 97.

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Date of creation: Aug 2005
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Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:97
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.bcb.gov.br/?english

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  1. Mark L. Gertler & R. Glenn Hubbard, 1988. "Financial Factors in Business Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 2758, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Coe, Patrick J, 2002. "Financial Crisis and the Great Depression: A Regime Switching Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(1), pages 76-93, February.
  3. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, pages 159-230 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Martin Eichenbaum & Kenneth I. Singleton, 1986. "Do Equilibrium Real Business Cycle Theories Explain Postwar U.S. Business Cycles?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986, Volume 1, pages 91-146 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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