Finance and the Business Cycle: a Kalman Filter Approach with Markov Switching
This paper combines two popular econometric tools, the dynamic factor model and the Markov-Switching model, to consider three segments of the financial system- the stock market, debt, and money- and their contribution to US business cycles over the past four decades. The dynamic factor model identifies a composite factor index for each financial segment, and using Markov-switching models by Hamilton (1989) and Filardo (1994), this paper then estimates the effect of each segment index on business cycle behaviour. This reexamination of the finance-business cycle link provides results that prove strongest for the effect of stock market movements on business cycles.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Mark L. Gertler & R. Glenn Hubbard, 1988.
"Financial Factors in Business Fluctuations,"
NBER Working Papers
2758, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mark Gertler & R. Glenn Hubbard, 1988. "Financial factors in business fluctuations," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 33-78.
- Martin Eichenbaum & Kenneth I. Singleton, 1986.
"Do Equilibrium Real Business Cycle Theories Explain Postwar U.S. Business Cycles?,"
in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986, Volume 1, pages 91-146
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Martin S. Eichenbaum & Kenneth J. Singleton, 1986. "Do Equilibrium Real Business Cycle Theories Explain Post-War U.S. Business Cycles?," NBER Working Papers 1932, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2002.
"Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?,"
NBER Working Papers
9127, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Coe, Patrick J, 2002. "Financial Crisis and the Great Depression: A Regime Switching Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(1), pages 76-93, February.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:97. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Francisco Marcos Rodrigues Figueiredo)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.