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Bank lending and economic activity in Japan: did "financial factors" contribute to the recent downturn?

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  • Allan D. Brunner
  • Steven B. Kamin

Abstract

In this paper, we examine the role of "financial factors" in Japan and attempt to gauge their recent impact on the Japanese economy. First, we find that proxies for financial factors enter significantly in behavioral equations for loan standards, loan demand and aggregate demand, although these proxies explain only a small amount of the variation in those variables. Second, there is some, albeit inconclusive, evidence that balance-sheet problems of households and firms contributed to Japan's recent recession. We find that exogenous declines in equity prices contributed significantly to the decline in loans and economic activity, although part of this influence appears to be operating through traditional wealth effects. In addition, loan demand shocks, which could reflect balance-sheet problems not captured by our model, account for much of the remainder of the shortfall in loans and some of the shortfall in economic activity. Finally, we also find some evidence that an exogenous contraction in loan supply, a "credit crunch," may have lowered output by a small degree, but only in the early phases of the recession.

Suggested Citation

  • Allan D. Brunner & Steven B. Kamin, 1995. "Bank lending and economic activity in Japan: did "financial factors" contribute to the recent downturn?," International Finance Discussion Papers 513, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:513
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Brunner, Allan D. & Kamin, Steven B., 1996. "Determinants of the 1991-1993 Japanese recession: Evidence from a structural model of the Japanese economy," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 363-399, December.
    2. Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & Kenneth D. West, 1996. "Business Fixed Investment and the Recent Business Cycle in Japan," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1996, Volume 11, pages 277-344 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Ito, Takatoshi & Sasaki, Yuri Nagataki, 2002. "Impacts of the Basle Capital Standard on Japanese Banks' Behavior," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 372-397, September.
    4. Michael Frömmel & Torsten Schmidt, 2006. "Bank Lending and Asset Prices in the Euro Area," RWI Discussion Papers 0042, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung.
    5. Frömmel, Michael & Schmidt, Torsten, 2006. "Bank Lending and Asset Prices in the Euro Area," RWI Discussion Papers 42, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung.
    6. Robert Guttmann, 2011. "Basel II: A New Regulatory Framework for Global Banking," Chapters,in: Credit, Money and Macroeconomic Policy, chapter 8 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. repec:zbw:rwidps:0042 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Ramkishen S. Rajan & Reza Siregar & Iman Sugema, 2003. "Why was there a precrisis capital inflow boom in Southeast Asia?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(3), pages 265-283.
    9. Alan G. Ahearne & Joseph E. Gagnon & Jane Haltmaier & Steve Kamin ... [et al.]., 2002. "Preventing deflation: lessons from Japan's experience in the 1990s," International Finance Discussion Papers 729, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Kwon, Eunkyung, 1998. "Monetary Policy, Land Prices, and Collateral Effects on Economic Fluctuations: Evidence from Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 175-203, September.

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    Keywords

    Bank loans ; Japan;

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