IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedgif/479.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Determinants of the 1991-93 Japanese recession: evidence from a structural model of the Japanese economy

Author

Listed:
  • Allan D. Brunner
  • Steven B. Kamin

Abstract

The objectives of this paper are to determine the extent to which various factors contributed to the current recession in Japan and to assess whether the recent behavior of the Japanese economy differs from that in previous recessions. Toward that end, we develop a small, structural macroeconometric model of the Japanese economy and estimate it using data from 1971 Q1 through 1991 Q1, the period just prior to the recent downturn. The important results can be summarized as follows. First, the severity of the current recession probably does not reflect structural economic changes. Second, the poor economic performance in 1991-1993 period was to some extent predictable, reflecting the unwinding of imbalances that developed during the preceding expansion. Finally, unpredictable movements in exchange rates, land and stock prices occurring after 1991 played an important, but not predominant, part in accentuating the downturn, while unusually stimulative fiscal and monetary policies appear to have contributed substantially to GDP during the recession.

Suggested Citation

  • Allan D. Brunner & Steven B. Kamin, 1994. "Determinants of the 1991-93 Japanese recession: evidence from a structural model of the Japanese economy," International Finance Discussion Papers 479, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:479
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/1994/479/default.htm
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/1994/479/ifdp479.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-987, December.
    2. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    3. Campbell, John Y & Hamao, Yasushi, 1992. "Predictable Stock Returns in the United States and Japan: A Study of Long-Term Capital Market Integration," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(1), pages 43-69, March.
    4. Hoshi, Takeo & Kashyap, Anil K., 1990. "Evidence on q and investment for Japanese firms," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 371-400, December.
    5. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-472, August.
    6. Molana, H, 1991. "The Time Series Consumption Function: Error Correction, Random Walk and the Steady-State," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(406), pages 382-403, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Brunner, Allan D & Kamin, Steven B, 1998. "Bank Lending and Economic Activity in Japan: Did 'Financial Factors' Contribute to the Recent Downturn?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(1), pages 73-89, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Brunner, Allan D. & Kamin, Steven B., 1996. "Determinants of the 1991-1993 Japanese recession: Evidence from a structural model of the Japanese economy," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 363-399, December.
    2. Becker, Torbjorn, 1997. "An investigation of Ricardian equivalence in a common trends model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 405-431, August.
    3. Fisher, Lance A. & Huh, Hyeon-seung & Tallman, Ellis W., 2003. "Permanent income and transitory variation in investment and output," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 149-168, June.
    4. Johansson, Anders C. & Ljungwall, Christer, 2009. "Spillover Effects Among the Greater China Stock Markets," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 839-851, April.
    5. Gilmore, Claire G. & McManus, Ginette M., 2002. "International portfolio diversification: US and Central European equity markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 69-83, March.
    6. Patel, Ajay & Shoesmith, Gary L., 2004. "Term structure linkages surrounding the Plaza and Louvre accords: Evidence from Euro-rates and long-memory components," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(9), pages 2051-2075, September.
    7. Anders C Johansson & Christer Ljungwall, 2006. "Spillover Effects among the Greater China Region Stock Markets," Microeconomics Working Papers 22046, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    8. Levent, Korap, 2007. "Modeling purchasing power parity using co-integration: evidence from Turkey," MPRA Paper 19584, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Menzie Chinn & Louis Johnston, 1996. "Real Exchange Rate Levels, Productivity and Demand Shocks: Evidence from a Panel of 14 Countries," NBER Working Papers 5709, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Yap, Wei Yim & Lam, Jasmine S.L., 2006. "Competition dynamics between container ports in East Asia," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 35-51, January.
    11. Claire G.Gilmore & Brian Lucey & Ginette M.McManus, 2005. "The Dynamics of Central European Equity Market Integration," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp069, IIIS.
    12. Daniel Levy, 1995. "Investment-saving comovement under endogenous fiscal policy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 237-254, July.
    13. Chen, Pei-Fen & Chien, Mei-Se & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2011. "Dynamic modeling of regional house price diffusion in Taiwan," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 315-332.
    14. Javier Gómez P., 1998. "La Demanda Por Dinero En Colombia," Borradores de Economia 2969, Banco de la Republica.
    15. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2006. "Housing Wealth, Credit Conditions and Consumption," CSAE Working Paper Series 2006-08, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    16. M. T. Alguacil & V. Orts, 2003. "Inward Foreign Direct Investment and Imports in Spain," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 19-38.
    17. Evan Lau & Koon Po Lee, 2008. "Interdependence of income between China and ASEAN‐5 countries," Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 1(2), pages 148-161, June.
    18. James Payne & George Waters, 2007. "Have Equity REITs Experienced Periodically Collapsing Bubbles?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 207-224, February.
    19. Michael S. Haigh & David A. Bessler, 2004. "Causality and Price Discovery: An Application of Directed Acyclic Graphs," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(4), pages 1099-1121, October.
    20. Joseph Joyce & Linda Kamas, 1997. "The relative importance of foreign and domestic shocks to output and prices in Mexico and Colombia," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 133(3), pages 458-478, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Japan; Recessions;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:479. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ryan Wolfslayer ; Keisha Fournillier (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbgvus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.