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The Time Series Consumption Function: Error Correction, Random Walk and the Steady-State

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  • Molana, H

Abstract

This paper examines, and attempts to reconcile, two rival approaches toward modeling the aggregate time series consumption function: the random walk and the error correction models. These models possess conflicting behavioral interpretations, but have been extensively used in the empirical literature. The paper modifies the life-cycle theory to generate a more satisfactory long-run relationship that demonstrates that the time series data on personal consumption and wealth are likely to have an error correction representation that encompasses the random walk model. Data from the United Kingdom support this proposition. Copyright 1991 by Royal Economic Society.

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  • Molana, H, 1991. "The Time Series Consumption Function: Error Correction, Random Walk and the Steady-State," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(406), pages 382-403, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:101:y:1991:i:406:p:382-403
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    Cited by:

    1. Brunner, Allan D. & Kamin, Steven B., 1996. "Determinants of the 1991-1993 Japanese recession: Evidence from a structural model of the Japanese economy," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 363-399, December.
    2. Sadiye Baykara & Erdinç Telatar, 2012. "The Stationarity Of Consumption-Income Ratios With Nonlinear And Asymmetric Unit Root Tests: Evidence From Fourteen Transition Economies," Hacettepe University Department of Economics Working Papers 20129, Hacettepe University, Department of Economics.
    3. Steven Cook, 2003. "The nonstationarity of the consumption-income ratio: Evidence from more powerful Dickey-Fuller tests," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(7), pages 393-395.
    4. Don Bredin & Keith Cuthbertson, 2002. "Liquidity effects and precautionary saving in the Czech Republic," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(6), pages 405-413.
    5. Sarantis, Nicholas & Stewart, Chris, 1999. "Is the consumption-income ratio stationary? Evidence from panel unit root tests," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 309-314, September.
    6. Haiyan Song, 1995. "A time-varying parameter consumption model for the UK," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(10), pages 339-342.
    7. Alexeev, Vitali & Maynard, Alex, 2012. "Localized level crossing random walk test robust to the presence of structural breaks," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3322-3344.
    8. Diego Romero-Avila, 2008. "A confirmatory analysis of the unit root hypothesis for OECD consumption-income ratios," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(17), pages 2271-2278.
    9. Haiyan Song & Peter Romilly & Xiaming Liu, 1998. "The UK consumption function and structural instability: improving forecasting performance using a time-varying parameter approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(7), pages 975-983.
    10. Anindya S. Chakrabarti & Arnab Chatterjee & Tushar Nandi & Asim Ghosh & Anirban Chakraborti, 2018. "Quantifying invariant features of within-group inequality in consumption across groups," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 13(3), pages 469-490, October.
    11. Cook, Steven, 2005. "The stationarity of consumption-income ratios: Evidence from minimum LM unit root testing," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 55-60, October.
    12. Oguz Asirim, 1996. "Alternative Theories of Consumption and an Application to the Turkish Economy," Discussion Papers 9604, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    13. Gomes, Fábio A. R. & Franchini, Douglas de S., 2008. "The Stationarity of Consumption–Income Ratios: Evidence from South American Countries," Insper Working Papers wpe_123, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
    14. Malley Jim & Molana Hassan, 2002. "Fiscal Policy And The Composition Of Private Consumption: Some Evidence From The U.A. And Canada," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 139-158.
    15. Kumar, Saten, 2009. "A Re-examination of Private Consumption in Fiji," MPRA Paper 18706, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Kingsley Nwala, 2018. "The Determinants of Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation of North Carolina," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 8(5), pages 26-34.
    17. Hansen, Hermann-Josef, 1996. "Der Einfluß der Zinsen auf den privaten Verbrauch in Deutschland," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 1996,03, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    18. Hansen, Hermann-Josef, 1996. "The impact of interest rates on private consumption in Germany," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 1996,03e, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    19. Pierse, R. G. & Snell, A. J., 1995. "Temporal aggregation and the power of tests for a unit root," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 333-345, February.
    20. Allan D. Brunner & Steven B. Kamin, 1994. "Determinants of the 1991-93 Japanese recession: evidence from a structural model of the Japanese economy," International Finance Discussion Papers 479, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    21. Romero-Ávila, Diego, 2009. "Are OECD consumption-income ratios stationary after all?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 107-117, January.

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