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Forecasting inflation: a comparison of linear Phillips curve models and nonlinear time serie models

  • G. Ascari
  • E. Marrocu

    ()

The aim of this paper is to analyze the forecasting performance of alternative model for the US inflation rate over the period 1950.1-2002.7. NAIRU Phillips curve models forecasts are contrasted with those obtained by a special class of nonlinear time series models, the threshold autoregressive models. The forecast evaluation is conducted on point and density forecasts. The results show that overall the non linear specification are better able to capture the distributional features of the series, although in terms of MSFE the Phillips curve specification can yield noticeable forecasting gains for medium and long term horizons. Previous finding on the forecasting superiority of the simple na�ve model are confuted.

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Paper provided by Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia in its series Working Paper CRENoS with number 200307.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:cns:cnscwp:200307
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  1. Boero, Gianna & Marrocu, Emanuela, 2002. "The Performance of Non-linear Exchange Rate Models: A Forecasting Comparison," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(7), pages 513-42, November.
  2. Francis X. Diebold & Anthony S. Tay & Kenneth F. Wallis, 1997. "Evaluating Density Forecasts of Inflation: The Survey of Professional Forecasters," NBER Working Papers 6228, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Gordon, Robert J, 1996. "The Time-varying NAIRU and its Implications for Economic Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 1492, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Anthony Tay & Kenneth F. Wallis, 2000. "Density Forecasting: A Survey," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0370, Econometric Society.
  5. Andrew Atkeson & Lee E. Ohanian., 2001. "Are Phillips curves useful for forecasting inflation?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-11.
  6. Clements, M.P. & Smith, J., 1998. "Non-Linearities in Exchange Rates," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 504, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  7. Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Flint Brayton & John M. Roberts & John C. Williams, 1999. "What's happened to the Phillips curve?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-49, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October.
  10. Diebold, Francis X & Gunther, Todd A & Tay, Anthony S, 1998. "Evaluating Density Forecasts with Applications to Financial Risk Management," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 863-83, November.
  11. Diebold, Francis X. & Nason, James A., 1990. "Nonparametric exchange rate prediction?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3-4), pages 315-332, May.
  12. Jonas D. M. Fisher & Chin Te Liu & Ruilin Zhou, 2002. "When can we forecast inflation?," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q I, pages 32-44.
  13. Clements, M.P. & Smith J., 1998. "Evaluating The Forecast of Densities of Linear and Non-Linear Models: Applications to Output Growth and Unemployment," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 509, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  14. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 33-49, Winter.
  15. Ascari, G., 1997. "Optimizing Agents, Staggered Wages and Persistence in the Real Effects of Money Shocks," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 486, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
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