IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ecr/col070/43955.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Business cycles, expectations and inflation in Brazil: a New-Keynesian Phillips curve analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Arruda, Elano Ferreira
  • Oliveira de Olivindo, Maria Thalita Arruda
  • Castelar, Ivan

Abstract

This article analyses Brazil’s recent inflation dynamic, considering different expectations environments within the New-Keynesian Phillips curve framework, to observe how the potential for discretionary behaviour by the monetary authority can interfere in economic agents’ forward-looking expectations, and how that interference can affect the way inflation responds to its inertial component and to business-cycle fluctuations. To that end, the study estimates the New-Keynesian Phillips curve and its hybrid version, using the heteroscedasticity-and-autocorrelation-consistent (HAC) estimator of the generalized method of moments (GMM). The results suggest that, when economic agents possess lower degrees of foresight, inflation will be more sensitive to business-cycle fluctuations the larger is its inertial component.

Suggested Citation

  • Arruda, Elano Ferreira & Oliveira de Olivindo, Maria Thalita Arruda & Castelar, Ivan, 2018. "Business cycles, expectations and inflation in Brazil: a New-Keynesian Phillips curve analysis," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecr:col070:43955
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://repositorio.cepal.org/handle/11362/43955
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Correa, Arnildo da Silva & Minella, André, 2010. "Nonlinear mechanisms of the exchange rate pass-through: A Phillips curve model with threshold for Brazil," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 64(3), September.
    2. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    3. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February.
    4. Rudd, Jeremy & Whelan, Karl, 2005. "New tests of the new-Keynesian Phillips curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1167-1181, September.
    5. Sargent, Thomas J, 1971. "A Note on the 'Accelerationist' Controversy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 3(3), pages 721-725, August.
    6. Cumby, Robert E & Huizinga, John, 1992. "Testing the Autocorrelation Structure of Disturbances in Ordinary Least Squares and Instrumental Variables Regressions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 185-195, January.
    7. Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Economic Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 2246, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. L. Randall Wray & Matthew Forstater (ed.), 2008. "Keynes and Macroeconomics After 70 Years," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12915.
    9. Arruda, Elano Ferreira & Ferreira, Roberto Tatiwa & Castelar, Ivan, 2011. "Modelos Lineares e Não Lineares da Curva de Phillips para Previsão da Taxa de Inflação no Brasil," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 65(3), September.
    10. Christopher F Baum & Mark E. Schaffer & Steven Stillman, 2007. "Enhanced routines for instrumental variables/generalized method of moments estimation and testing," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 7(4), pages 465-506, December.
    11. Helder Ferreira de Mendonça & Marco Antonio Loureiro dos Santos, 2006. "Credibilidade da Política Monetária e a Previsão do Trade-off entre Inflação e Desemprego: Uma Aplicação para o Brasil," Economia, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics], vol. 7(2), pages .293-306.
    12. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    13. -, 2018. "CEPAL Review no. 124," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    14. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October.
    15. Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira & Cleomar Gomes da Silva, 2008. "Inflation Targeting in Brazil: A Keynesian Approach," Chapters, in: L. Randall Wray & Matthew Forstater (ed.), Keynes and Macroeconomics After 70 Years, chapter 11, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    16. A. W. Phillips, 1958. "The Relation Between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861–1957," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 25(100), pages 283-299, November.
    17. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
    18. Mazali, Antonio Alberto & Divino, Jose Angelo, 2010. "Real Wage Rigidity and the New Phillips Curve: The Brazilian Case," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 64(3), September.
    19. Areosa, Waldyr Dutra & Medeiros, Marcelo, 2007. "Inflation Dynamics in Brazil: The Case of a Small Open Economy," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 27(1), May.
    20. Adrian R Pagan & Anthony D Hall, 1983. "Diagnostic tests as residual analysis," Published Paper Series 1983-1, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mário Jorge Mendonça & Adolfo Sachsida, 2012. "Inflação Versus Desemprego: Novas Evidências Para o Brasil," Discussion Papers 1763, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    2. Weider Loureto Alves & Roberto Tatiwa Ferreira, 2023. "Phillips curve and the exchange rate pass-through: a time–frequency approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(5), pages 2165-2181, May.
    3. Giray Gozgor, 2013. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve in an Inflation Targeting Country: The Case of Turkey," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), International Hellenic University (IHU), Kavala Campus, Greece (formerly Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology - EMaTTech), vol. 6(1), pages 7-18, April.
    4. Thorvardur Tjörvi Ólafsson, 2006. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve: In Search of Improvements and Adaptation to the Open Economy," Economics wp31_tjorvi, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    5. Kushal Banik Chowdhury & Nityananda Sarkar, 2017. "Is the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve Stable? Evidence from Some Emerging Economies," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 15(3), pages 427-449, September.
    6. Bhavesh Salunkhe & Anuradha Patnaik, 2019. "Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Policy in India: A New Keynesian Phillips Curve Perspective," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 8(2), pages 144-179, December.
    7. Jeremy Rudd & Karl Whelan, 2007. "Modeling Inflation Dynamics: A Critical Review of Recent Research," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 155-170, February.
    8. Ferreira, Diego & Palma, Andreza Aparecida, 2015. "Forecasting Inflation with the Phillips Curve: A Dynamic Model Averaging Approach for Brazil," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 69(4), December.
    9. Mazali, Antonio Alberto & Divino, Jose Angelo, 2010. "Real Wage Rigidity and the New Phillips Curve: The Brazilian Case," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 64(3), September.
    10. Paloviita, Maritta & Mayes, David, 2005. "The use of real-time information in Phillips-curve relationships for the euro area," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 415-434, December.
    11. Sophocles Mavroeidis & Mikkel Plagborg-Møller & James H. Stock, 2014. "Empirical Evidence on Inflation Expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(1), pages 124-188, March.
    12. Oinonen, Sami & Vilmi, Lauri, 2021. "Analysing euro area inflation outlook with the Phillips curve," BoF Economics Review 5/2021, Bank of Finland.
    13. repec:zbw:bofism:2005_032 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Michele Fratianni & Marco Gallegati & Federico Giri, 2019. "Mr Phillips and the medium-run: temporal instability vs. frequency stability," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 155, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
    15. Ant?nio Cl¨¦cio de Brito & Elano Ferreira Arruda & Ivan Castelar & Nicolino Trompieri Neto & Cristiano Santos, 2019. "Core Inflation, Expectations and Inflation Dynamics in Brazil," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 11(6), pages 1-1, June.
    16. Paloviita, Maritta, 2005. "The role of expectations in euro area inflation dynamics," Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, number 2005_032.
    17. Carlos Medel, 2017. "Forecasting Chilean inflation with the hybrid new keynesian Phillips curve: globalisation, combination, and accuracy," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 20(3), pages 004-050, December.
    18. Bertille Antoine & Otilia Boldea, 2015. "Efficient Inference with Time-Varying Information and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Discussion Papers dp15-04, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University, revised 25 Aug 2016.
    19. Bardsen, Gunnar & Eitrheim, Oyvind & Jansen, Eilev S. & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2005. "The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199246502, Decembrie.
    20. Ieva Rubene & Paolo Guarda, 2004. "The new Keynesian Phillips curve: empirical results for Luxembourg," BCL working papers 11, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    21. Carlos A. Medel, 2018. "Forecasting Inflation with the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve: A Compact-Scale Global VAR Approach," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(3), pages 331-371, July.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecr:col070:43955. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Biblioteca CEPAL (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eclaccl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.