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Credibilidade da Política Monetária e a Previsão do Trade-off entre Inflação e Desemprego: Uma Aplicação para o Brasil

Author

Listed:
  • Helder Ferreira de Mendonça

    (UFF)

  • Marco Antonio Loureiro dos Santos

    (Banco BBM)

Abstract

This paper evaluates, as proposed by Laxton and N’Diaye (2002), if the consideration of a measure of monetary policy credibility in the forecast of the Brazilian Phillips Curve, after the introduction of inflation targeting, implies an improvement. The findings denote that the use of a measure of monetary policy credibility for the Brazilian economy can provide a statistical model with a forecast quality for unemployment-inflation trade-off better than models of inflation that consider a stable relation between inflation expectations and inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Helder Ferreira de Mendonça & Marco Antonio Loureiro dos Santos, 2006. "Credibilidade da Política Monetária e a Previsão do Trade-off entre Inflação e Desemprego: Uma Aplicação para o Brasil," Economia, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics], vol. 7(2), pages .293-306.
    • Handle: RePEc:anp:econom:v:7:y:2006:i:2:p:293-306
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    File URL: http://www.anpec.org.br/revista/vol7/vol7n2p293_306.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Arruda, Elano Ferreira & Oliveira de Olivindo, Maria Thalita Arruda & Castelar, Ivan, 2018. "Business cycles, expectations and inflation in Brazil: a New-Keynesian Phillips curve analysis," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    2. Mário Jorge Mendonça & Adolfo Sachsida, 2012. "Inflação Versus Desemprego: Novas Evidências Para o Brasil," Discussion Papers 1763, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    3. Sachsida, Adolfo, 2013. "Inflação, Desemprego e Choques Cambiais: Uma Revisão da Literatura sobre a Curva de Phillips no Brasil," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 67(4), November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credibilidade; Trade-Off entre Inflação e Desemprego; Metas para Inflação Bank; Fear of Floating;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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