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Credibilidade da Política Monetária e a Previsão do Trade-off entre Inflação e Desemprego: Uma Aplicação para o Brasil


  • Helder Ferreira de Mendonça


  • Marco Antonio Loureiro dos Santos

    (Banco BBM)


This paper evaluates, as proposed by Laxton and N’Diaye (2002), if the consideration of a measure of monetary policy credibility in the forecast of the Brazilian Phillips Curve, after the introduction of inflation targeting, implies an improvement. The findings denote that the use of a measure of monetary policy credibility for the Brazilian economy can provide a statistical model with a forecast quality for unemployment-inflation trade-off better than models of inflation that consider a stable relation between inflation expectations and inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Helder Ferreira de Mendonça & Marco Antonio Loureiro dos Santos, 2006. "Credibilidade da Política Monetária e a Previsão do Trade-off entre Inflação e Desemprego: Uma Aplicação para o Brasil," Economia, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics], vol. 7(2), pages .293-306.
  • Handle: RePEc:anp:econom:v:7:y:2006:i:2:p:293-306

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    More about this item


    Credibilidade; Trade-Off entre Inflação e Desemprego; Metas para Inflação Bank; Fear of Floating;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy


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