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La transmisión de la política monetaria sobre el consumo en presencia de restricciones de liquidez

  • Ana María Iregui


  • Ligia Alba Melo B.


El objetivo de este documento es evaluar el impacto de la política monetaria, sobre elconsumo de los hogares colombianos, a través del efecto que ésta tiene sobre la tasa deinterés. Para esto, se utiliza un modelo que combina elementos de la hipótesis del ingresopermanente y del ciclo de vida. Adicionalmente, se incorporan restricciones de liquidezdebido al poco acceso de la población al sistema financiero en Colombia. El análisisempírico se realiza a partir de un ejercicio de calibración de una función consumo,utilizando información trimestral para el período 1994-2006, en el cual se considera, de unlado, que toda la población tiene acceso al sistema financiero y, de otro, que un segmentode la población no tiene acceso. En el primer caso, la calibración arroja una elasticidad desustitución intertemporal de 0,405, y se encuentra que un choque inesperado a la tasa deinterés de un punto porcentual disminuye, ceteris paribus, el consumo corriente en 0,41%.En el segundo caso, se obtiene una elasticidad intertemporal de sustitución de 0,445,cuando se supone que el 43% del ingreso laboral pertenece a los consumidores conrestricciones de liquidez; entre más alto sea este porcentaje, mayor será la elasticidadintertemporal de sustitución.

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Paper provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA in its series BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA with number 005254.

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Length: 63
Date of creation: 26 Jan 2009
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Handle: RePEc:col:000094:005254
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