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La estimación de la brecha del producto en Colombia

Author

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  • José Luis Torres

Abstract

La brecha del producto es una variable clave para la política monetaria bajoel régimen de inflación objetivo. Dada la incertidumbre sobre esta medida,los equipos de inflación de los Bancos Centrales monitorean regularmente unconjunto amplio de indicadores y de estimaciones, que dan luces sobre laposición de la economía en el ciclo y posibles presiones de demanda. En estetrabajo se reseñan las principales metodologías que se utilizan en el Bancode la República de Colombia para su estimación. También se comparan lospronósticos fuera de muestra, para la inflación básica, que se obtienenutilizando las diferentes medidas en una curva de Phillips híbrida.

Suggested Citation

  • José Luis Torres, 2007. "La estimación de la brecha del producto en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 4288, Banco de la Republica.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:004288
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ilyas Siklar & Umit Yildiz & Sinan Cakan, 2016. "The Time - Varying Natural Rate of Interest and Its Fundamental Determinants: Time Series Evidence from Turkey," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 6(2), pages 390-400, December.
    2. Ignacio Lozano & Hernán Rincón & Miguel Sarmiento & Jorge Ramos, 2008. "Regla fiscal cuantitativa para consolidar y blindar las finanzas públicas de Colombia," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 10(19), pages 311-352, July-Dece.
    3. Jairo Andrés Castaño Peña, 2020. "Las cláusulas de disciplina fiscal en las constituciones del Estado social de derecho : la sostenibilidad fiscal en Colombia y el principio de estabilidad presupuestaria en España," Books, Universidad Externado de Colombia, Facultad de Derecho, number 1186, October.
    4. Andrés González & Segio Ocampo & Julián Pérez & Diego Rodríguez, 2013. "Output Gap and Neutral Interest Measures of Colombia," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 231-286, July-Dece.
    5. Ignacio Lozano & Hernán Rincón & Miguel Sarmiento & Jorge Ramos, 2008. "Regla fiscal cuantitativa para consolidar y blindar las finanzas públicas de Colombia," Borradores de Economia 4597, Banco de la Republica.
    6. Luis Ignacio Lozano, 2011. "Caracterización macro de la política fiscal en Colombia y postura frente a la crisis global (2008-2009)," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID, June.
    7. Mr. Nicolas E Magud & Ms. Evridiki Tsounta, 2012. "To Cut or Not to Cut? That is the (Central Bank’s) Question In Search of the Neutral Interest Rate in Latin America," IMF Working Papers 2012/243, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Brecha del producto; Curva de Phillips; Colombia.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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