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Regla fiscal cuantitativa para consolidar y blindar las finanzas públicas de Colombia

Author

Listed:
  • Ignacio Lozano
  • Hernán Rincón
  • Miguel Sarmiento
  • Jorge Ramos

Abstract

Las reglas fiscales aumentan la credibilidad en la política económica, permiten unmanejo fiscal contracíclico y sostenible intertemporalmente, y contribuyen a laestabilidad y al crecimiento económico. El gobierno colombiano ha usado reglasfiscales para limitar el crecimiento del gasto y el endeudamiento de los entesterritoriales y para propiciar la transparencia y responsabilidad fiscal del sector público.Sin embargo, el alcance de dichas reglas ha sido limitado, como lo evidencia lanaturaleza estructural del desequilibrio fiscal del gobierno central y la procíclicidad desu política. En este documento se formula y evalúa una regla fiscal cuantitativa de 1%del PIB de superávit primario estructural para el gobierno central, con el fin deconsolidar el proceso de ajuste de las finanzas públicas del país y blindar su manejohacia el futuro. La aplicación contrafactual de la regla muestra que si se hubieraadoptado a comienzos de la década, el gobierno hubiera hecho ahorros anuales de por lomenos 0,7% del PIB entre 2001 y 2006. Si se acogiera este año, se lograrían ahorros delmismo monto entre 2008 y 2011, con lo cual se reduciría el nivel actual de la deuda en 3puntos del PIB al final del período.

Suggested Citation

  • Ignacio Lozano & Hernán Rincón & Miguel Sarmiento & Jorge Ramos, 2008. "Regla fiscal cuantitativa para consolidar y blindar las finanzas públicas de Colombia," Borradores de Economia 4597, Banco de la Republica.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:004597
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    Cited by:

    1. Hernán Rincón, 2010. "Un análisis comparativo de reglas fiscales cuantitativas," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(3), pages 431-461, julio-sep.
    2. José A. Murillo & Tonatiuh Peña, 2010. "Futuros de productos básicos alimentarios: ¿son útiles para pronosticar la inflación?," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(3), pages 377-430, julio-sep.
    3. Luis Hernando Portillo Riascos, 2021. "The Cyclical Position of The Fiscal Policy in Colombia During the Period 1990-2015," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 95, pages 45-83, July-Dece.
    4. Ignacio Lozano & Hernán Rincón & Miguel Sarmiento & Jorge Ramos, 2008. "Regla fiscal cuantitativa para consolidar y blindar las finanzas públicas de Colombia," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 10(19), pages 311-352, July-Dece.
    5. Jairo Andrés Castaño Peña, 2020. "Las cláusulas de disciplina fiscal en las constituciones del Estado social de derecho : la sostenibilidad fiscal en Colombia y el principio de estabilidad presupuestaria en España," Books, Universidad Externado de Colombia, Facultad de Derecho, number 1186.
    6. Jhorland Ayala-García & Clark Granger-Castaño & Ligia Alba Melo-Becerra, 2022. "Dinámica de las reglas fiscales subnacionales y la nacional," Documentos de trabajo sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 305, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    7. Ryszard Piasecki & Erico Wulf B, 2014. "Fiscal Policy Rules: Evidence From Chilean Economy," Review of Business and Finance Studies, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 5(2), pages 45-54.
    8. Gerson Javier Pérez-Valbuena & Jaime Bonet-Morón, 2018. "Municipal Fiscal Health in Colombian Main Cities," Documentos de Trabajo Sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 17016, Banco de la República, Economía Regional.
    9. Portillo Riascos, Luis Hernando, 2021. "La posición cíclica de la política fiscal en Colombia durante el periodo 1990-2015," Revista Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE, issue No. 95, pages 42-83, July.
    10. Luis Ignacio Lozano, 2011. "Caracterización macro de la política fiscal en Colombia y postura frente a la crisis global (2008-2009)," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID, June.
    11. Julieta Fuentes & Ricardo Salazar, 2010. "Cálculo de un indicador coincidente y adelantado de la actividad económica Salvadoreña," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(3), pages 289-376, julio-sep.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Reglas fiscales; credibilidad; política fiscal contracíclica; estabilidad; balance primario estructural;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General
    • H61 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Budget; Budget Systems
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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